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=== confirmation bias ===
=== Correlation is not causation ===
 
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy
 
=== Confirmation bias ===
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
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** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
=== False dilemma fallacy ===
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it


=== Gambler's fallacy ===
=== Gambler's fallacy ===
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**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."


=== law of averages ===
=== Law of averages ===


* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
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* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers


=== necessary and sufficient conditions ===
=== Necessary and sufficient conditions ===
* necessary conditions
* necessary conditions
** = without which something is not true
** = without which something is not true
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  A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
  A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"


=== normalcy bias ===
=== Normalcy bias ===


* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
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** to develop logical thought
** to develop logical thought
*** see also sufficiency in logic
*** see also sufficiency in logic
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012)
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012


=== regression to the mean ===
=== Post hoc fallacy ===
 
* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy
 
* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second
 
=== Regression to the mean ===


* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
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** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"


==== regression fallacy ====
==== Regression fallacy ====


* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
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* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy ===
* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate
** related to
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy''


=== Zebra rule ===
=== Zebra rule ===
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** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you


==== Christian thought on lying ===  
==== Christian thought on lying ====
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
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** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
*** arguing that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
 
 
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====