Drake Equation: Difference between revisions

Latest revision as of 14:45, 11 September 2022

The Drake Equation is a probability (possibility) measurement of the existence of extraterrestrial life

formulated in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake

N = R_* • ƒ_p • n_e • ƒ₁ • ƒ_i • ƒ_c • L
R_* = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy
ƒ_p = the fraction of those stars that have planets
n_e = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
ƒ₁ = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
ƒ_i = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
ƒ_c = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
from Drake Equation (wikipedia)

Drake's estimate:

R_∗ = 1 yr⁻¹ (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
f_p = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
n_e = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
f_l = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
f_i = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
f_c = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
L = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy

Fermi paradox
- in 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi casually thought up the paradox that, if extraterrestrial life is so probable (likely), then we would have encountered it by now
  - "But where is everybody?" Fermi asked
a 2018 paper called, "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox" concluded that the probability of intelligent life outside of earth is unlikely
- the authors incorporated additional models of chemical and genetic transitions into life
  - thus we should not be surprised by Fermi's conclusion, "But where is everybody?"

@@ Line 20: / Line 20: @@
 from [[wikipedia:Drake_equation#Equation|Drake Equation (wikipedia)]]</blockquote>
-* Drakes estimates: <blockquote>
+* Drake's estimate:
-* ''R''<sub>∗</sub> = 1 yr<sup>−1</sup> (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
+<blockquote>'''''R''<sub>∗</sub>''' = 1 yr<sup>−1</sup> (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
-* ''f''<sub>p</sub> = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
-* ''n''<sub>e</sub> = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
+'''''f''<sub>p</sub>''' = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
-* ''f''<sub>l</sub> = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
-* ''f''<sub>i</sub> = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
+'''''n''<sub>e</sub>''' = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
-* ''f''<sub>c</sub> = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
-* ''L'' = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years) </blockquote><blockquote>= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy</blockquote>
+'''''f''<sub>l</sub>''' = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
+'''''f''<sub>i</sub>''' = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
+'''''f''<sub>c</sub>''' = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
+'''''L''''' = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
+= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy</blockquote>
+* [[wikipedia:Fermi_paradox|Fermi paradox]]
+** in 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi casually thought up the paradox that, if extraterrestrial life is so probable (likely), then we would have encountered it by now
+*** "But where is everybody?" Fermi asked
+* a 2018 paper called, "[https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 Dissolving the Fermi Paradox]" concluded that the probability of intelligent life outside of earth is unlikely
+** the authors incorporated additional models of chemical and genetic transitions into life
+*** thus we should not be surprised by Fermi's conclusion, "But where is everybody?"
+</blockquote>
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