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Social Studies skills: Difference between revisions
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== Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes == | == Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes == | ||
* see Economics section for | * see Economics section for economics-related fallacies and paradoxes | ||
* see | * see [[Logical fallacy|'''Logical fallacy''']] for list of fallacies especially regarding logic and argumentation | ||
=== Benchmark fallacy === | === Benchmark fallacy === | ||
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=== regression to the mean === | === regression to the mean === | ||
* the | * in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events | ||
** | ** the reason observations of extremes are not likely to be repeated, thus averages prevail ("the mean") | ||
* in social sciences, indicates that change can't happen forever | |||
** i.e., exceptional events, persons or places, positive or negative, will likely subside or return to what was previously normal | |||
** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail | ** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail | ||
* | ** we see this in terms of cycles: economic, political, social | ||
** | * in economics, regression to the mean | ||
* in late 1800s, Francis Galton argued that | |||
** extreme characteristics of an individual are not passed entirely to offspring | |||
*** so offspring tend to have one or another of either parent's characteristics, but not all of them | |||
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature" | |||
==== regression fallacy ==== | |||
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean | |||
* = observations or predictions that include extremes or outliers (beyond the normal range) and ignore the law of regression to the mean that would otherwise indicate that those extremes and outliers are just that and not indicative of the mean (average) | |||
** an interesting application of this idea is seen in positive and negative reinforcement | |||
*** positive reinforcement may incorrectly praise an extreme or outlier, thus subsequent behaviors may fail to replicate what was being praised | |||
*** this dynamic can explain why people may feel great about some outcome yet fail to repeat it subsequently | |||
**** they expect that same extreme/outlier without realizing that outcomes will likely "regress to the mean" | |||
=== Sutton's law === | === Sutton's law === | ||