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Social Studies skills: Difference between revisions
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* origins of the idea of confirmation bias | * origins of the idea of confirmation bias | ||
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour") | ** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour") | ||
*David Hume and confirmaton bias | |||
* David Hume | |||
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism") | ** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism") | ||
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything | ** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything | ||
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** i.e. drawing conclusions ("reasoning") based upon bias or reason for ("motives") | ** i.e. drawing conclusions ("reasoning") based upon bias or reason for ("motives") | ||
==== historical examples of confirmation bias ==== | |||
*in 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain returned from Germany after signing the Munich Agreement, under which Hitler agreed not to many further claims on Czechsolvakian territory (after siezing the Sudetenland), and announced that the agreement would bring "peace for our time." | |||
**within six months Germany had annexed more of Czechoslavia and would soon after invade Poland. | |||
**Chamberlain and his allied nations so wanted Hitler not to be a problem that they accepted anything he proposed thinking that appeasing him would stop his agression. | |||
*the Salem Witch Trials of 1692 were driven by confirmation bias that considered evidence gave proof of witchcraft, and even otherwise harmless things, like a broken fence, served as proof of it. | |||
**Worse, authorities accepted without question ridiculous claims such as that a witch supposedly made cows jump | |||
*The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed) | |||
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath | |||
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!" | |||
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath | |||
=== Correlation is not causation === | === Correlation is not causation === | ||
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause | * a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause | ||