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Social Studies skills: Difference between revisions
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→Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes
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=== | === Correlation is not causation === | ||
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause | |||
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other | |||
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy | |||
=== Confirmation bias === | |||
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence | * drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence | ||
** akak | ** akak | ||
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** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge | ** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge | ||
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias | *** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias | ||
=== False dilemma fallacy === | |||
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise | |||
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it | |||
=== Gambler's fallacy === | === Gambler's fallacy === | ||
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**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent." | **from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent." | ||
=== | === Law of averages === | ||
* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur | * = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur | ||
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* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers | * see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers | ||
=== | === Necessary and sufficient conditions === | ||
* necessary conditions | * necessary conditions | ||
** = without which something is not true | ** = without which something is not true | ||
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A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge" | A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge" | ||
=== | === Normalcy bias === | ||
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been | * a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been | ||
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** to develop logical thought | ** to develop logical thought | ||
*** see also sufficiency in logic | *** see also sufficiency in logic | ||
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012 | * note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012 | ||
=== | === Post hoc fallacy === | ||
* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy | |||
* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X | |||
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second | |||
=== Regression to the mean === | |||
* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events | * in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events | ||
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** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature" | ** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature" | ||
==== | ==== Regression fallacy ==== | ||
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean | * errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean | ||
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* = seek first the most obvious answer first | * = seek first the most obvious answer first | ||
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing | * used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing | ||
=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy === | |||
* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized | |||
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument | |||
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes | |||
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate | |||
** related to | |||
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy | |||
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy | |||
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy'' | |||
=== Zebra rule === | === Zebra rule === | ||
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** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you | ** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you | ||
==== Christian thought on lying === | ==== Christian thought on lying ==== | ||
* Christians consider lying an offence to God | * Christians consider lying an offence to God | ||
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that: | * Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that: | ||
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** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies | ** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies | ||
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong | * Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong | ||
** | ** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option | ||
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ==== | ==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ==== | ||