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=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
>> to do
>> to do
=== butterfly effect ===
> small effects that lead to larger events
>> to do: George Washington sparking the French-Indian War
=== Goldilocks principle ===
* like Goldilocks who found the right bowl of porridge and bed to sleep on,
** the "just right amount" is the "Goldilocks Principle"
** = the sufficient (needed and perfect) conditions for something to happen
* ex.
** habitable planets require a perfect set of conditions to support life, which only earth presents
*** see the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
** in economics, the Goldilocks economy is one in which economic inputs (trends/ happenings) are in balance and the economy is stable (very rare)


==Contingency==
==Contingency==
Line 280: Line 293:
=== Dictators paradox ===
=== Dictators paradox ===


* from Presidnt Herbert Hoover  
* from President Herbert Hoover (1927-1931):
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
* the idea that  
* the idea that  
Line 410: Line 423:
=== Economic disparity ===
=== Economic disparity ===


* >> to do Gini Coeficient
* a measure of disparities in income distribution across an economic unit or country
* Thomas Picketty
** i.e., the extent to which income is distributed equally or unequally
** ex. high economic dispary means that a small percentage of a country controls a high percentage of that country's assets or economic activity
* see [[wikipedia:Gini_coefficient|Gini coefficient - Wikipedia]]
* see Thomas Picketty / todo
* problems include
** while a certain segment of a population may control a significant portion of assets, it may not also constitute a disproportionate amount of economic activity
** government dispersals of or redistribution of income may hide underlying economic disparities in standards of living, purchasing power, etc.


==Order & Chaos==
==Order & Chaos==
Line 678: Line 697:
* see [[Leadership]] entry
* see [[Leadership]] entry


== Economics ==
==Standards/ Standardization==
=== standard meaning ===
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
** etymology (word origin):
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
* '''standardize''' (verb)
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement


=== Comparative Advantage===
=== purpose of standardization ===
* Definition: A particular economic advantage, resource or ability a country possesses over either its own other economic situations or those of another country.
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
* the term "comparative advantage" was
** especially across large distances
* origin of the idea:
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"  
** late 1700s Scottish philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790)
* forms of standardization include:0
click EXPAND for Adam Smith quotation on "absolute advantage":
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
* effects of standardization include:
<pre>''If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it off them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage. The general industry of the country, being always in proportion to the capital which employs it, will not thereby be diminished ... but only left to find out the way in which it can be employed with the greatest advantage.'' (Book IV, Section ii, 12)</pre> </div>
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** Comparative advantage means concentrating on what your country is good at making/doing in order to get what other countries are better at making/doing."
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization


** early 19th century British economist David Ricardo (1772-1823):
=== law ===
*** argued for specialization as basis for national wealth and increased trade
=== money ===
*** = laissez-faire, free-trade
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)  
*** related comparative advantage to the concept of "opportunity cost"
notes to do:
**** i.e. what is lost by ''not'' engaging in an activity
* money & trade
**** Ricardo argued that it would be more costly to for country A to attempt to produce something that country B can more efficiently create than to focus on what that country A itself does better (its comparative advantage) and simply purchase the other goods from country B
** trade =
**** and by doing so, both country A and B will benefit from the trade
*** geography
click EXPAND for David Ricardo's quotation on comparative advantage:
*** movement
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
*** scarcity/surplus
<pre>it would undoubtedly be advantageous to the capitalists [and consumers] of England… [that] the wine and cloth should both be made in Portugal [and that] the capital and labour of England employed in making cloth should be removed to Portugal for that purpose.</pre></div>
*** technology
** British colonizer of Australia and economist Robert Torrens independently developed the idea of comparative advantage
*** technological and cultural diffusion
click EXPAND for Robert Torrens' quotation on comparative advantage from 1808:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
<pre>''if I wish to know the extent of the advantage, which arises to England, from her giving France a hundred pounds of broadcloth, in exchange for a hundred pounds of lace, I take the quantity of lace which she has acquired by this transaction, and compare it with the quantity which she might, at the same expense of labour and capital, have acquired by manufacturing it at home. The lace that remains, beyond what the labour and capital employed on the cloth, might have fabricated at home, is the amount of the advantage which England derives from the exchange.''</pre></div>
* Examples:
*** Is it advantageous for the U.S. to import oil from Saudi Arabia or to rely only on its own oil production?
* see also
** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]


=== Economies of scale ===
==== history of money ====
* definition: lower costs of production based upon higher volume
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
** i.e., the larger the production facility, the cheaper it costs to produce any single item
* money must be:  
* economies of scale result from:
** '''scarce'''
** greater efficiency in higher production rates
*** too much money reduces its value
** greater purchasing power to lower costs of supplies and materials
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
** lower per capita labor cost per cost of unit produced
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
 
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
=== Free markets ===
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
** '''transportable'''
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
** '''authentic'''
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
** '''trusted'''
*** government sanction
** '''permanent'''
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
* early non-coinage forms of money:
** sea shells
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
** cattle
** crops/ herbs/ spices
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
** gems, gold, rare minerals
*** measured by weight
* modern period money forms:
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
=== history of Coinage===
* starts with the “touchstone”
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)


* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 Milton Friedman video explaining power of free markets] (YouTube)
>> to do:
* Basquiat
Phoenicians: created currency
** modest proposal << to do
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
* Hayek
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
** dispersed knowledge
=== weights and measures ===
** emergent order
=== writing ===
* Locke
> create new page for writing
* Smith
* power of writing
** invisible hand
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
** universities
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>
*


==== I Pencil ====
and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>


* a parable in which a pencil describes to the narrator just how magical its creation is
* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
* the pencil describes the complex processes and knowledge required for the production of a simple pencil
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
* see [https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)]
</pre>


**
==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
* details
* sources:


=== Herbert Stein's Law ===
==Historical sources & methods==
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
* tools and techniques to study history
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate
 
** cycles
=== types of historical evidence ===
** non-linear paths of events
* archeological evidence:
** change
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA) 
* Herbert Stein's Law may serve as a good discussion point for evaluating choices in history
** carbon-material for dating
** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
=== primary source ===
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
* eye-witness testimony
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
** diaries
** personal letters
*** court testimony
** oral history
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
* other original documents, including:  
** official papers
** newspapers
 
=== secondary source ===
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
** could be contemporaneous or historical
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event


=== Jevons Paradox ===
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
** also: greater efficiencies lowers cost, which increases demand
* from William Stanley Jevons who in 1865 noticed that more efficiencies in coal-power generation led to more use of coal
** see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Jevons paradox]
* interesting historical tool
** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm


=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====  
* late 20th century Economist Milton famously defined the "Four ways to spend money" (paraphrased, not original quotation):
* '''OPVL'''
# You spend your money on yourself
** '''O'''rigin
# You spend someone else's money on yourself
** '''P'''urpose
# Someone else spends their money on on you
** '''V'''alue
# Someone else spends someone else's money on someone else
** '''L'''imitation
click EXPAND to see the implications of the Four ways to spend money
 
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''HAPP-y'''
• Table format
** '''H'''istorical context
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 50%;"
** '''A'''udience
! Whose money is spent by whom
** '''P'''urpose
! Money is spent on whom
** '''P'''oint of view
! Efficiency of Outcome
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete
|-
 
| style="width: 30%" | '''You spend your money...''' || '''on yourself'''  
==Historiography==
||
= the study of how history is studied
* seek highest value
=== Historiographic schools ===
* with lowest cost
* = maximum efficiency
|-
|-  
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
||
* seek highest value
* no concern for cost
* = lower efficiency
|-
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''  
||
* seek lowest cost
* no concern for quality
* = lower efficiency


|-
=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''
* confirmation bias
||
** see Confirmation bias
* no concern for cost
* editorial bias
* no concern for quality
* hagiography
* = lowest efficiency
** biography that idealizes the subject
|-
** from Greek for writing about saints
| ||
* political bias
|-
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
|}
** although it could have bias in the work
</div>
* see Historiography section
 
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
>> to do
 
== Economics ==


=== Opportunity Cost ===
=== Comparative Advantage===
* definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
* Definition: A particular economic advantage, resource or ability a country possesses over either its own other economic situations or those of another country.
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
* the term "comparative advantage" was
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
* origin of the idea:
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
** late 1700s Scottish philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790)
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
click EXPAND for Adam Smith quotation on "absolute advantage":
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
<pre>''If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it off them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage. The general industry of the country, being always in proportion to the capital which employs it, will not thereby be diminished ... but only left to find out the way in which it can be employed with the greatest advantage.'' (Book IV, Section ii, 12)</pre> </div>
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
** Comparative advantage means concentrating on what your country is good at making/doing in order to get what other countries are better at making/doing."
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
 
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
** early 19th century British economist David Ricardo (1772-1823):
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
*** argued for specialization as basis for national wealth and increased trade
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
*** = laissez-faire, free-trade
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
*** related comparative advantage to the concept of "opportunity cost"  
* ''Parable of the broken window''
**** i.e. what is lost by ''not'' engaging in an activity
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
**** Ricardo argued that it would be more costly to for country A to attempt to produce something that country B can more efficiently create than to focus on what that country A itself does better (its comparative advantage) and simply purchase the other goods from country B
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
**** and by doing so, both country A and B will benefit from the trade
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
click EXPAND for David Ricardo's quotation on comparative advantage:
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
<pre>it would undoubtedly be advantageous to the capitalists [and consumers] of England… [that] the wine and cloth should both be made in Portugal [and that] the capital and labour of England employed in making cloth should be removed to Portugal for that purpose.</pre></div>
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
** British colonizer of Australia and economist Robert Torrens independently developed the idea of comparative advantage
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
click EXPAND for Robert Torrens' quotation on comparative advantage from 1808:
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
<pre>''if I wish to know the extent of the advantage, which arises to England, from her giving France a hundred pounds of broadcloth, in exchange for a hundred pounds of lace, I take the quantity of lace which she has acquired by this transaction, and compare it with the quantity which she might, at the same expense of labour and capital, have acquired by manufacturing it at home. The lace that remains, beyond what the labour and capital employed on the cloth, might have fabricated at home, is the amount of the advantage which England derives from the exchange.''</pre></div>
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
* Examples:  
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
*** Is it advantageous for the U.S. to import oil from Saudi Arabia or to rely only on its own oil production?
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
* see also
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
</div>
* Examples:
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* Questions:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?


=== Pareto Principle ===
=== Desire Path ===
[[File:Desire path - 52849400711.jpg|thumb|right|A desire path between concrete sidewalks at the Ohio State University (wikipedia)]]
* specifically: a path created by people off or outside of an established, planned path
* generally: the idea that people will more efficiently choose their methods and means of conducting day-to-day affairs better than planners
** related to Frederick Hayeks' idea of the "emergent order" created by accumulated individual decisions rather than by a collective decision


* also known as the "80/20 rule" or "law of the vital few"
=== Economies of scale ===
* = the idea that 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
* definition: lower costs of production based upon higher volume
* the early Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that
** i.e., the larger the production facility, the cheaper it costs to produce any single item
** in Italy 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the population
* economies of scale result from:
* other observers have found that many natural and human systems follow this distribution pattern<br />
** greater efficiency in higher production rates
=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
** greater purchasing power to lower costs of supplies and materials
* 80/20 rule (see the "Pareto Principle" above)
** lower per capita labor cost per cost of unit produced
* diminishing returns
 
* emergent order
=== Free markets ===
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
 
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 Milton Friedman video explaining power of free markets] (YouTube)
* client politics
* Basquiat
* churning
** modest proposal << to do
** assets churning
* Hayek
*** a form of rent seeking whereby a regulated public utility seeks replacement infrastructure solely for the purpose of generating interest income on the investment, and not for a genuine need for that infrastructure, or, worse, intentionally investing in assets or infrastructure that will require future replacement (see "planned obsolescence")
** dispersed knowledge
** brokerage churning
** emergent order/ spontaneous order
* externalities
* Locke
* Inflation/ deflation
* Smith
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
** invisible hand
* planned obsolescence
** universities
** obsolescence = out of date, no longer useful or appealing
 
** deliberate design for a product or asset to require replacement
=== Gresham's law ===
** practices may include, automobile or cell phone design to entire consumers to purchase based upon a new "look", fad, or feature that does not make the previous version obsolete
 
* public goods
* "Bad money drives out good money"
* regulatory capture
** Sir Thomas Gresham (1519–1579), was an English financier in the 16th century
* rent seeking
** he advised Queen Elizabeth to restore confidence in the English currency, which had been "debased" (made impure)
** using government rules or law in order to reduce competition
** Gresham argued that the monetary value of coinage should equal the value of its metallic base
** see Frederic Bastiat's "Economic Sophisms" for a satire on candlestick makers who petitioned the government to ban the sun as an unfair competitor'
*** i.e., $1.00 gold coin should be worth the weight in gold of that coin
***https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat#Economic_Sophisms_and_the_candlemakers'_petition
* inflation results from "bad" money
* regression to the mean (return to the mean)
* historical instances include:
* risk mitigation
** Roman empire debasement of silver coins (from 92% purity to  
* scarcity v. surplus
** Yuan Dynasty issuance of paper money to finance war, resulting in inflation
* sunk cost / "sunk cost fallacy"
 
* Third-party payer effect
==== "I Pencil" ====
** when a third-party pays for goods or services, quality goes down and prices go up
 
** see Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money"
* a parable in which a pencil describes to the narrator just how magical its creation is
* top-down v. bottom-up
* the pencil describes the complex processes and knowledge required for the production of a simple pencil
* trickle-down theory
* see [https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)]
** the idea that economic benefits conferred or made available to the top of society will "trickle down" to the rest of society
 
** has been attributed to "Reaganomics"
=== Herbert Stein's law ===
*** but only by its critics, not its proponents
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
*** in other words, "trickle down" theory is an economic criticism and not a proposition
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate
** "trickle down" theory originated in William Jennings Bryan's 1896 "Cross of God Speech"
** cycles
click EXPAND for quotation from Bryan's Cross of Gold speech that expressed "trickle down theory"
** non-linear paths of events
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** change
<pre>
* Herbert Stein's Law may serve as a good discussion point for evaluating choices in history
There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them.</pre></div>
** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
* [[Tragedy of the Commons]]
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein
* zero sum transaction
* Stein's law is an expression of "Regression to the Mean" (see entry)
** both sides of transaction receive equal benefit
 
*** i.e., the buyer and the seller gain equal value
=== Jevons paradox ===
*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
** also: greater efficiencies lowers cost, which increases demand
* from William Stanley Jevons who in 1865 noticed that more efficiencies in coal-power generation led to more use of coal
** see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Jevons paradox]
* interesting historical tool
** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm


== Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes ==
=== Lucas critique ===


* see Economics section for economics-related fallacies and paradoxes
* Univ. of Chicago professor Robert Lucas "critiqued" (criticized) macroeconomic theories or models that describe large-scale systems, especially as drawn from "aggregated data" (accumulated) won't impact individual choices or behaviors, or those individual choices and behaviors won't change
* see [[Logical fallacy|'''Logical fallacy''']] for list of fallacies especially regarding logic and argumentation
** in other words, macroeconomic models fail to account for micro-economic or individual behaviors
* the utility of the Lucas critique is to point out that policy makes often fail to recognize that individuals make rational decisions that macroeconomic forecasting cannot account for.


=== Benchmark fallacy ===
=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
* a logical or statistical fallacy that measures incompatible data or other comparison point ("benchmark")
* late 20th century Economist Milton famously defined the "Four ways to spend money" (paraphrased, not original quotation):
* examples:
# You spend your money on yourself
** using a date of reference (benchmark) in order to hide a statistical trend from its true nature
# You spend someone else's money on yourself
*** also called "cherry-picking" of dates or data
# Someone else spends their money on on you
** commonly used by stock market observers in order to exaggerate or minimize the extent of a stock's rise or fall
# Someone else spends someone else's money on someone else
** commonly used by politicians to make claims for or against themselves or opponents, such as:
click EXPAND to see the implications of the Four ways to spend money
click EXPAND for an example of a benchmark fallacy
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
Example:
• Table format
{| class="wikitable"  
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 50%;"
|+ '''Housing Starts 2000-2021 selected years '''
! Whose money is spent by whom
! Money is spent on whom
! Efficiency of Outcome
|-  
|-  
| 2000 || 2006 || 2009 || 2015 || 2021
| style="width: 30%" | '''You spend your money...'''  || '''on yourself'''
||
* seek highest value
* with lowest cost
* = maximum efficiency
|-
|-  
|-  
| 1.65 mm || 2.25mm|| 0.50 mm || 1.2mm || 1.7 mm
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
|}
||
* mm = millions
* seek highest value
* numbers are approximate
* no concern for cost
** source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
* = lower efficiency
* benchmark fallacies using this data might include:
|-
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''decline'' in housing starts might select 2005 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a lower rate of housing starts than 2005); conversely,
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''rise'' in housing starts might select 2009 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a higher rate of housing starts than 2009)
||
* seek lowest cost
* no concern for quality
* = lower efficiency
 
|-
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''  
||
* no concern for cost
* no concern for quality
* = lowest efficiency
|-
| ||
|-
|}
</div>
</div>


=== Correlation is not causation ===
=== Opportunity Cost ===
 
* definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
 
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
=== Confirmation bias ===
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
** akak
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
*** seeing only what you want to see
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
*** "to a hammer, everything is a nail"
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
** politicians who take only one side of a political question even against evidence that negates it
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** historians who are biased toward certain historical outcomes
* ''Parable of the broken window''
* origins of the idea of confirmation bias
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
</div>
* Examples:
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* Questions:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?
 
=== Pareto Principle ===


*examples of confirmation bias
* also known as the "80/20 rule" or "law of the vital few"
**The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
* = the idea that 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
* the early Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) observed that
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
** in Italy 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the population
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
* other observers have found that many natural and human systems follow this distribution pattern<br />
* David Hume
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
*** Hume wrote, “Tis not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias


=== False dilemma fallacy ===
=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
 
* 80/20 rule (see the "Pareto Principle" above)
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise
* diminishing returns
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it
* emergent order
 
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
=== Gambler's fallacy ===
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
 
* client politics
* the idea that past performance necessarily indicates future results
* churning
** either that since it happened in the past, it will continue
** assets churning
** or, if it happened in the past, it will not happen again
*** a form of rent seeking whereby a regulated public utility seeks replacement infrastructure solely for the purpose of generating interest income on the investment, and not for a genuine need for that infrastructure, or, worse, intentionally investing in assets or infrastructure that will require future replacement (see "planned obsolescence")
* the fallacy is especially important in random events, such as gambling (cards, dice)
** brokerage churning
* see Law of Averages and Regression to the Mean
* externalities
 
* Inflation/ deflation
=== Heinlein's Razor ===
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
* planned obsolescence
**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
** obsolescence = out of date, no longer useful or appealing
 
** deliberate design for a product or asset to require replacement
=== Law of averages ===
** practices may include, automobile or cell phone design to entire consumers to purchase based upon a new "look", fad, or feature that does not make the previous version obsolete
 
* public goods
* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
* regulatory capture
** in other words, the more times something happens, the more likely the results will be the same
* rent seeking
* the classic example is coin tossing
** using government rules or law in order to reduce competition
** the more coin tosses the more likely the result between heads or tails to be 50/50
** see Frederic Bastiat's "Economic Sophisms" for a satire on candlestick makers who petitioned the government to ban the sun as an unfair competitor'
* related to
***https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat#Economic_Sophisms_and_the_candlemakers'_petition
** the "law of large numbers" from  Jakob Bernoulli
* regression to the mean (return to the mean)
** "regression to the mean"
* risk mitigation
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers
* scarcity v. surplus
 
* sunk cost / "sunk cost fallacy"
=== Necessary and sufficient conditions ===
* Third-party payer effect
* necessary conditions
** when a third-party pays for goods or services, quality goes down and prices go up
** = without which something is not true
** see Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money"
*** example: "John is a batchelor" informs us that John is a male, unmarried, and an adult
* top-down v. bottom-up
* sufficient conditions
* trickle-down theory
** = condition is sufficient to prove something is true
** the idea that economic benefits conferred or made available to the top of society will "trickle down" to the rest of society
** however, sufficiency does not exclude other conclusions
** has been attributed to "Reaganomics"
*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male
*** but only by its critics, not its proponents
*** in other words, "trickle down" theory is an economic criticism and not a proposition
** "trickle down" theory originated in William Jennings Bryan's 1896 "Cross of God Speech"
click EXPAND for quotation from Bryan's Cross of Gold speech that expressed "trickle down theory"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them.</pre></div>
* [[Tragedy of the Commons]]
* zero sum transaction
** both sides of transaction receive equal benefit
*** i.e., the buyer and the seller gain equal value
*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"


=== No real Scotsman fallacy ===
== Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes ==


* also called "No true Scotsman fallacy"
* see Economics section for economics-related fallacies and paradoxes
* a logical fallacy of "universal generalization"
* see [[Logical fallacy|'''Logical fallacy''']] for list of fallacies especially regarding logic and argumentation
* the fallacy makes a universal claim, then improperly excludes any counter-examples
* the "no real Scotsman" fallacy works as such:


A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
=== Benchmark fallacy ===
B: "My uncle Angus is Scottish, and he does."
* a logical or statistical fallacy that measures incompatible data or other comparison point ("benchmark")
A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
* examples:
** using a date of reference (benchmark) in order to hide a statistical trend from its true nature
*** also called "cherry-picking" of dates or data
** commonly used by stock market observers in order to exaggerate or minimize the extent of a stock's rise or fall
** commonly used by politicians to make claims for or against themselves or opponents, such as:
click EXPAND for an example of a benchmark fallacy
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
Example:  
{| class="wikitable"  
|+ '''Housing Starts 2000-2021 selected years '''
|-
| 2000 || 2006 || 2009 || 2015 || 2021
|-
| 1.65 mm || 2.25mm|| 0.50 mm || 1.2mm || 1.7 mm
|}
* mm = millions
* numbers are approximate
** source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
* benchmark fallacies using this data might include:
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''decline'' in housing starts might select 2005 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a lower rate of housing starts than 2005); conversely,
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''rise'' in housing starts might select 2009 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a higher rate of housing starts than 2009)
</div>


=== Normalcy bias ===
=== Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon / Frequency Illusion/ New Car Syndrome ===
 
* the phenomenon in which upon buying a new car, one all of a sudden sees other cars of the same model or color that one didn't notice before
* first identified as the "Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon" following an internet message board user who mentioned the name of the German terrorist organization, Baader-Meinhof, realized that he started seeing numerous references to the group, even though he had never noticed it before
* the phenomenon was later labeled "frequency illusion," in reference to the tendency to notice things only after noticing it for the first time, which leads to the assumption that the frequency of that thing is greater than it really is
** i.e., it was always there
** but the person didn't notice until first experiencing or observing it
* thus the "new car syndrome"
 
=== "Cargo Cult" fallacy ===
* fallacy of superficially mimicking someone, something, or some activity will result in the same benefits accrued to those who are being copied
** i.e., by taking sticks and marching in military-lines, that one would have the same power as the real army being mimicked
* in science, called "cargo cult science", whereby one researcher copies the results of another without testing it independently
* the term "cargo cult" originated in belief by indigenous Pacific islanders that ritualistic mimicking of Western symbols, constructions or actions would yield the same benefits observed of those westerners
** especially construction of mini-airstrips and models of airplanes that the U.S. military brought to Pacific Islands during WWII would also yield the benefits those things brought to the westerners, such as material goods, health care, etc.
* the term "cargo cult" was coined by Australian planters in Papua New Guinea
** anthropologists adopted the coin regarding certain indigenous beliefs across Melanesia (eastern Pacific islands)


* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
=== Confirmation bias ===
* given absence of change, a normalcy bias is accurate
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
** only it's accurate until it's not
** akak
* we can see across history when civilizations, peoples, or leaders counted on things "staying the same"
*** seeing only what you want to see
** consequences can be
*** "to a hammer, everything is a nail"
*** catastrophic systemic breakdown without preparation for change
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
**** examples include, Ancient Egypt, Roman Empire, various Chinese dynasties
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
*** lack of social, economic, cultural, and technological advance
** politicians who take only one side of a political question even against evidence that negates it
**** which unto itself becomes a source of breakdown, esp. vis-a-vis competitive societies
** historians who are biased toward certain historical outcomes
**** see "stability v. change" above
* origins of the idea of confirmation bias  
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")
*David Hume and confirmaton bias
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
*** Hume wrote, “Tis not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
* may also be called "motivated reasoning"
** i.e. drawing conclusions ("reasoning") based upon bias or reason for ("motives")
* see:
** [http://www.devpsy.org/teaching/method/confirmation_bias.html Confirmation Bias & Wason (1960) 2-4-6 Task (devpsy.org)]
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201905/the-curious-case-of-confirmation-bias The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias | Psychology Today]
 
==== historical examples of confirmation bias ====
*in 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain returned from Germany after signing the Munich Agreement, under which Hitler agreed not to many further claims on Czechsolvakian territory (after siezing the Sudetenland), and announced that the agreement would bring "peace for our time."
**within six months Germany had annexed more of Czechoslavia and would soon after invade Poland.
**Chamberlain and his allied nations so wanted Hitler not to be a problem that they accepted anything he proposed thinking that appeasing him would stop his agression.
*the Salem Witch Trials of 1692 were driven by confirmation bias that considered evidence gave proof of witchcraft, and even otherwise harmless things, like a broken fence, served as proof of it.
**Worse, authorities accepted without question ridiculous claims such as that a witch supposedly made cows jump


=== Occam's Razor ===
*The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
* original latin = ''lex parsimoniae''
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
** = the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
* = idea that the simplest explanation is most often the best
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
* = best solution or option is that which assumes the least variables or assumptions
=== Correlation is not causation ===
* origin
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause
** William of Ockham (c. 1285–1349) English Franciscan friar and logician
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other
*** practiced economy in logic
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy
*** "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity"
* term "Occam's Razor" developed later
** "razor" = knife to cut away unnecessary assumptions
* Occam's razor for students:
** to evaluate opposing theories
** to develop own theories
** to evaluate [[Myths & Conspiracies outline]]
** to develop logical thought
*** see also sufficiency in logic
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012


=== Post hoc fallacy ===
=== False dilemma fallacy ===
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it


* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy
=== Framing effect ===


* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X
* the 'effect" or phenomenon that people will select an option based upon how it is "framed" in positive or negative terms
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second
* the framing effect occurs when the options are of equal value (are the same), even if presented in oppositive terms
** the difference is in how it is presented or perceived by the decision maker
* examples:
** 33% survive v. 66% die
*** A) given this choice, 33% of people will be saved; versus
*** B) given this choice, 66% of people will die
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because it focuses on lives" saved" versus "people who will die"
**** even though both outcomes are the same (33% saved = 66% die)
** an event has a late registration fee
*** option A) the late registration fee is highlighted on top of the regular cost of registration
*** option B) regular registration is treated as a discount from the total cost of late registration
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because they want to avoid the perceived additional cost
**** even though the early registration for A) is the same as for B)
** an opinion poll asks for support of a policy, with emphasis on either its positive or negative impact
*** A) 100,000 people will get jobs, while only 10,000 unemployed will result
*** B) 10,000 people will lose jobs, while only 100,000 people will find employment
**** respondents prefer A) due to its positive emphasis on jobs gained
**** even though the net jobs gained or lost are the same


=== Regression to the mean ===
=== Gambler's fallacy ===


* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
* the idea that past performance necessarily indicates future results
** the reason observations of extremes are not likely to be repeated, thus averages prevail ("the mean")
** either that since it happened in the past, it will continue
* in social sciences, indicates that change can't happen forever
** or, if it happened in the past, it will not happen again
** i.e., exceptional events, persons or places, positive or negative, will likely subside or return to what was previously normal
* the fallacy is especially important in random events, such as gambling (cards, dice)
** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail
* see Law of Averages and Regression to the Mean
** we see this in terms of cycles: economic, political, social
* in economics, regression to the mean


* in late 1800s, Francis Galton argued that  
=== Heinlein's Razor ===
** extreme characteristics of an individual are not passed entirely to offspring
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
*** so offspring tend to have one or another of either parent's characteristics, but not all of them
** similar to Occam's Razor, which posits that the most direct explanation is likely the most accurate
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"
** in that many human endeavors are the result of "incompetence" as much as good or bad intention
** makes for a good test for "conspiracy theories"
*from wikipedia:
A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."


==== Regression fallacy ====
=== Law of averages ===


* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
* = observations or predictions that include extremes or outliers (beyond the normal range) and ignore the law of regression to the mean that would otherwise indicate that those extremes and outliers are just that and not indicative of the mean (average)
** in other words, the more times something happens, the more likely the results will be the same
** an interesting application of this idea is seen in positive and negative reinforcement
* the classic example is coin tossing
*** positive reinforcement may incorrectly praise an extreme or outlier, thus subsequent behaviors may fail to replicate what was being praised
** the more coin tosses the more likely the result between heads or tails to be 50/50
*** this dynamic can explain why people may feel great about some outcome yet fail to repeat it subsequently
* related to  
**** they expect that same extreme/outlier without realizing that outcomes will likely "regress to the mean"
** the "law of large numbers" from  Jakob Bernoulli
** "regression to the mean"
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers


=== Sutton's law ===
=== Loss aversion ===
* from the bank robber Willie Sutton who, when asked why he robbed banks
** he replied, "Because that's where the money is."
*** Willie Sutton denied ever having said that, but affirmed that he "probably" would have if someone asked him
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing


=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy ===
* a psychological disposition to not want to lose out or not have something
* loss aversion occurs when people give up something of value or that is functional in exchange for something new that isn't needed
** ex. getting the latest cell phone even though your current one is working fine
* loss aversion drives decisions by "not wanting to lose out" on something


* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized
=== Necessary and sufficient conditions ===
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument
* necessary conditions
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes
** = without which something is not true
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate
*** example: "John is a batchelor" informs us that John is a male, unmarried, and an adult
** related to
* sufficient conditions
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy
** = condition is sufficient to prove something is true
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy
** however, sufficiency does not exclude other conclusions
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy''
*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male
 
=== No real Scotsman fallacy ===


=== Zebra rule ===
* also called "No true Scotsman fallacy"
* "When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't expect to see a zebra"
* a logical fallacy of "universal generalization"
** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
* the fallacy makes a universal claim, then improperly excludes any counter-examples
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
* the "no real Scotsman" fallacy works as such:


=== Kafka Trap ===
A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
* a logical trap whereby the argument uses its own refutation as evidence of a fallacy
B: "My uncle Angus is Scottish, and he does."
** i.e., "because you deny it, it must be true"
A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
* the term refers to the dystopian novel by Franz Kafka "The Trial," in which a man's denial of a charge was used as evidence of his guilt
* the "Kafka trap" was coined by Eric Raymond as "Kafkatrapping" in 2010 article


=== Leading questions and question traps ===
=== Normalcy bias ===
* questions that assume an answer ("leading") or are designed to "trap" an answer
 
** similar to the Kafka trap
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
* leading questions are used in order to guide
* given absence of change, a normalcy bias is accurate
** Socrates engaged in "leading questions" in order to make his point
** only it's accurate until it's not
*** see [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning Socratic questioning (wikipedia)]]
* we can see across history when civilizations, peoples, or leaders counted on things "staying the same"
*** and the story of the Slave Boy and the Square from Plato's ''Meno''
** consequences can be
*** catastrophic systemic breakdown without preparation for change
**** examples include, Ancient Egypt, Roman Empire, various Chinese dynasties
*** lack of social, economic, cultural, and technological advance
**** which unto itself becomes a source of breakdown, esp. vis-a-vis competitive societies
**** see "stability v. change" above


=== Motte and Bailey Doctrine ===
=== Occam's Razor ===
* or the "Motte and Bailey fallacy"
* original latin = ''lex parsimoniae''
* a fallacy of exaggeration in which an argument is presented with absurd exaggerations ("the Motte") and if objected to is replaced by an undoubtedly true but hardly controversial statement ("the Bailey", which is then used to advance the original exaggerated claim
** = the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness
click EXPAND for more on Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
* = idea that the simplest explanation is most often the best
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* = best solution or option is that which assumes the least variables or assumptions
* the term refers to a protected medieval castle and nearby indefensible village
* origin
** the Motte is the defensible, protected tower but is not appealing to live in (built on a mound or "motte")
** William of Ockham (c. 1285–1349) English Franciscan friar and logician
* the Bailey is an appealing place to live but cannot be defended
*** practiced economy in logic
* if attacked, the occupants of the retreat to the Motte for safety
*** "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity"
* thus the exaggerated and fallacious (untrue) argument appears more reasonable
* term "Occam's Razor" developed later
</div>
** "razor" = knife to cut away unnecessary assumptions
* the Motte and Bailey Doctrine frequently employs
* Occam's razor for students:
** "strawman fallacy"  
** to evaluate opposing theories
** ''Humpty Dumptying''
** to develop own theories
** "either-or" fallacy
** to evaluate [[Myths & Conspiracies outline]]
** "red herring" fallacy
** to develop logical thought
click EXPAND for an example of a Motte and Bailey fallacy regarding a gun control debate:
*** see also sufficiency in logic
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012
<pre>
 
Person A. "Guns don't kill people, people do" (the Bailey)
=== Post hoc fallacy ===
Person B. "But that won't stop people from using guns to kill people."
Person A. "Yeah, but guns are legal" (the Motte)
Person A has conflated (confused or joined illogically) the legality of guns with their use.
</pre>
or on the opposite side:
<pre>
Person A. "Gun control keeps criminals from committing crimes with guns" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But criminals commit crimes and won't obey gun control laws."
Person A. "Either way, it's bad when guns are used to murder people." (the Motte)
</pre>
</div>


* term coined by [https://philpapers.org/archive/SHATVO-2.pdf Prof. Nicholas Shackel in the paper, The Vacuity of Postmodernist
* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy
Methodology]
click EXPAND for excerpt from Shackel explaining the Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
A Troll’s Truism is a mildly ambiguous statement by which an exciting falsehood
may trade on a trivial truth ....


Troll’s Truisms are used to insinuate an exciting falsehood, which is a desired doctrine,
* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X
yet permit retreat to the trivial truth when pressed by an opponent. In so doing they
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second
exhibit a property which makes them the simplest possible case of what I shall call a
Motte and Bailey Doctrine (since a doctrine can single belief or an entire body of beliefs.)
A Motte and Bailey castle is a medieval system of defence in which a stone tower on a
mound (the Motte) is surrounded by an area of land (the Bailey) which in turn is
encompassed by some sort of a barrier such as a ditch. Being dark and dank, the Motte is
not a habitation of choice. The only reason for its existence is the desirability of the
Bailey, which the combination of the Motte and ditch makes relatively easy to retain
despite attack by marauders. When only lightly pressed, the ditch makes small numbers of
attackers easy to defeat as they struggle across it: when heavily pressed the ditch is not
defensible and so neither is the Bailey. Rather one retreats to the insalubrious but
defensible, perhaps impregnable, Motte. Eventually the marauders give up, when one is
well placed to reoccupy desirable land.


For my purposes the desirable but only lightly defensible territory of the Motte and
=== Regression to the mean ===
Bailey castle, that is to say, the Bailey, represents a philosophical doctrine or position
with similar properties: desirable to its proponent but only lightly defensible. The Motte is
the defensible but undesired position to which one retreats when hard pressed.</pre>
</div>


== Ethics ==
* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
** the reason observations of extremes are not likely to be repeated, thus averages prevail ("the mean")
* in social sciences, indicates that change can't happen forever
** i.e., exceptional events, persons or places, positive or negative, will likely subside or return to what was previously normal
** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail
** we see this in terms of cycles: economic, political, social
* in economics, regression to the mean


=== Aristotle ===
* in late 1800s, Francis Galton argued that
* by Aristotle's view, the study of ethics is essential to understanding the world around us and for finding virtue and happiness
** extreme characteristics of an individual are not passed entirely to offspring
** ''ethikē'' = ethics
*** so offspring tend to have one or another of either parent's characteristics, but not all of them
** ''aretē'' = virtue or excellence
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"
**  ''phronesis'' = practical or ethical wisdom
 
** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
=== Regression fallacy ===
* steps to become a virtuous person:
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
*# practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
* = observations or predictions that include extremes or outliers (beyond the normal range) and ignore the law of regression to the mean that would otherwise indicate that those extremes and outliers are just that and not indicative of the mean (average)
*# righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
** an interesting application of this idea is seen in positive and negative reinforcement
*# good character leads to ''eudaimonia''
*** positive reinforcement may incorrectly praise an extreme or outlier, thus subsequent behaviors may fail to replicate what was being praised
* classes (types) of virtue/ non-virtue people
*** this dynamic can explain why people may feel great about some outcome yet fail to repeat it subsequently
*# knows right, does right, does not yield to temptation
**** they expect that same extreme/outlier without realizing that outcomes will likely "regress to the mean"
*# knows right, does right, but has to fight temptation
*# knows right, falls to temptation thus does not do right
*# knows right, deliberately does wrong
*## the worst of these deliberately imposes or leads others to do wrong


=== ethical or moral dilemma ===
=== Sunk cost fallacy ===
* "sunk cost" is an economics term for a transaction or financial cost that can no longer be recovered
** i.e., it is "sunk"
* the "sunk cost fallacy" is that because a cost has been incurrent but not recovered, more investment is required to make it back
** also known as "throwing good money after bad"
* the sunk cost fallacy results from an emotional response to a bad situation
** in which it would be irrational to continue to incur additional costs
* the opposite response to the sunk cost fallacy is "cutting one's losses" and moving on
* in non-financial analysis, especially historical, the sunk cost fallacy occurs when actors "double down" on a bad decision or situation
** doubling down has frequently occurred in politics and warfare
* an example of the Sunk cost fallacy was the "Concorde fallacy"
** the British and French governments decided to keep spending money on the supersonic Concorde airliner despite having already lost huge amounts of money on it
* related to Loss Aversion


* dilemma =  
=== Sutton's law ===
** a situation that has dichotomous (or contrary) negative outcomes
* from the bank robber Willie Sutton who, when asked why he robbed banks
** i.e., "no good choices"
** he replied, "Because that's where the money is."
* see below for ethical lies
*** Willie Sutton denied ever having said that, but affirmed that he "probably" would have if someone asked him
* ethical dilemma =
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
** a situation that presents or causes conflicting ethical requirements
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
*** "requirement" means a required ethical response or choice
*** i.e., if chosen or acted upon, it would be unethical
* conflict of interest
** present ethical challenges
** have degrees of severity
*** such as the ethical requirement to follow a law against, say, trespassing
*** but such trespassing is required in order to save a life


=== lying ===
=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy ===
* lying happens all the time
* we might think of ethical degrees of lies
** some lies may be justified, as in acting a character in a play or telling a joke
** other lies have severe consequence
** any lie that deprives another from the truth, possible benefit, or causes harm is unethical
*** unless that lie avoids an even worse consequence upon either party


==== types of lies ====
* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized
* bold-faced lie
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument
** flat-out lie told as if the absolute truth
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes
* b.s.
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate
** a lie that is obvious and exaggeration
** related to
* broken promise
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy
** a promise made with no intention of carrying it out
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy
* cheating
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy''
** cheating is a lot of things, but it is fundamentally a lie
 
* deception
=== Zebra rule ===
* defamation
* "When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't expect to see a zebra"
** lies with intent to "defame" or harm a person's reputation
** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
* disinformation
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
** lies targeted at an audience to shape a belief, usually in politics or politically-tainted news reporting
 
* exaggeration
=== Kafka Trap ===
** also called "puffery" for trying to be bigger than you really are
* a logical trap whereby the argument uses its own refutation as evidence of a fallacy
* false dilemma
** i.e., "because you deny it, it must be true"
** a lie of omission in that it hides options or conditions that exist
* the term refers to the dystopian novel by Franz Kafka "The Trial," in which a man's denial of a charge was used as evidence of his guilt
** ex. "you either hate me or love me"
* the "Kafka trap" was coined by Eric Raymond as "Kafkatrapping" in 2010 article
* fake news
 
** lies in news reporting with intent to hide or cover up something true
=== Leading questions and question traps ===
* fraud
* questions that assume an answer ("leading") or are designed to "trap" an answer
** deliberate deceit in order to make or defraud someone of money
** similar to the Kafka trap
* half truth
* leading questions are used in order to guide
** a lie of omission, in that the intent of the lie is to create a false impression by withholding contrary evidence
** Socrates engaged in "leading questions" in order to make his point
* ''little white lies''
*** see [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning Socratic questioning (wikipedia)]]
** seemingly inconsequential lies that cumulatively create a larger or ongoing deception
*** and the story of the Slave Boy and the Square from Plato's ''Meno''
* misleading statements
 
** contains a truth but is designed to deceive
=== Motte and Bailey Doctrine ===
* plagiarism
* or the "Motte and Bailey fallacy"
** claiming as one's own what belongs or comes from someone else
* a fallacy of exaggeration in which an argument is presented with absurd exaggerations ("the Motte") and if objected to is replaced by an undoubtedly true but hardly controversial statement ("the Bailey", which is then used to advance the original exaggerated claim
* rumors
click EXPAND for more on Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
** also called "fabrication"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* ''slip of the tongue''
* the term refers to a protected medieval castle and nearby indefensible village
** an unintentional lie
** the Motte is the defensible, protected tower but is not appealing to live in (built on a mound or "motte")
** also called "misspeaking"
* the Bailey is an appealing place to live but cannot be defended
*** misspeaking becomes a lie when it is used intentionally to deceive or harm
* if attacked, the occupants of the retreat to the Motte for safety
** telling something without certainty of its truefullness
* thus the exaggerated and fallacious (untrue) argument appears more reasonable
* story-telling
</div>
* white lie
* the Motte and Bailey Doctrine frequently employs
** a lie that produces a positive outcome
** "strawman fallacy"  
** see below for lies and situational ethics
** ''Humpty Dumptying''
* sources:
** "either-or" fallacy
* [https://www.thehopeline.com/different-kinds-of-lies-you-tell/ Eight Types of Lies that People Tell - TheHopeLine]
** "red herring" fallacy
* [[wikipedia:Lie|Lie - Wikipedia]]
click EXPAND for an example of a Motte and Bailey fallacy regarding a gun control debate:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
Person A. "Guns don't kill people, people do" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But that won't stop people from using guns to kill people."
Person A. "Yeah, but guns are legal" (the Motte)
Person A has conflated (confused or joined illogically) the legality of guns with their use.
</pre>
or on the opposite side:
<pre>
Person A. "Gun control keeps criminals from committing crimes with guns" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But criminals commit crimes and won't obey gun control laws."
Person A. "Either way, it's bad when guns are used to murder people." (the Motte)
</pre>
</div>


==== lies and situational ethics: life-threatening dilemma ====
* term coined by [https://philpapers.org/archive/SHATVO-2.pdf Prof. Nicholas Shackel in the paper, The Vacuity of Postmodernist
 
Methodology]
* lying may be ethical if used to
click EXPAND for excerpt from Shackel explaining the Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
** avoid severe harm or save a life
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
*** ex., someone with clear intent to harm a resident knocks on the door, and is told that that person is not home
<pre>
* an ethical lie must avoid a seriously negative outcome
A Troll’s Truism is a mildly ambiguous statement by which an exciting falsehood
** without creating a worse ultimate outcome
may trade on a trivial truth ....  
* ethical lies do not deprive another person from a legitimate outcome
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you


==== Christian thought on lying ====
Troll’s Truisms are used to insinuate an exciting falsehood, which is a desired doctrine,
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
yet permit retreat to the trivial truth when pressed by an opponent. In so doing they
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
exhibit a property which makes them the simplest possible case of what I shall call a
** every lie is sinful
Motte and Bailey Doctrine (since a doctrine can single belief or an entire body of beliefs.)  
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
A Motte and Bailey castle is a medieval system of defence in which a stone tower on a
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
mound (the Motte) is surrounded by an area of land (the Bailey) which in turn is
** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
encompassed by some sort of a barrier such as a ditch. Being dark and dank, the Motte is
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====
not a habitation of choice. The only reason for its existence is the desirability of the
Bailey, which the combination of the Motte and ditch makes relatively easy to retain
despite attack by marauders. When only lightly pressed, the ditch makes small numbers of
attackers easy to defeat as they struggle across it: when heavily pressed the ditch is not
defensible and so neither is the Bailey. Rather one retreats to the insalubrious but
defensible, perhaps impregnable, Motte. Eventually the marauders give up, when one is
well placed to reoccupy desirable land.
 
For my purposes the desirable but only lightly defensible territory of the Motte and
Bailey castle, that is to say, the Bailey, represents a philosophical doctrine or position
with similar properties: desirable to its proponent but only lightly defensible. The Motte is
the defensible but undesired position to which one retreats when hard pressed.</pre>
</div>


* a lie that does not pretend to be a truth
== Ethics ==
** comedic effect
** entertainment
** fiction
** paternalistic lie
*** such as telling young children about Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny
** play-acting for conversation or entertainment


==== "Trolley problem" ====
=== Aristotle ===
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
* by Aristotle's view, the study of ethics is essential to understanding the world around us and for finding virtue and happiness
* scenario:
** ''ethikē'' = ethics
** a runaway (out of control) trolley is heading towards a track with five workers on it (or sometimes presented as five people tied up and who are unable to move)
** ''aretē'' = virtue or excellence
** there is a secondary track that was not in the original pathway of the trolley and that has one person on it
** ''phronesis'' = practical or ethical wisdom
** an engineer who sees the situation can divert the trolley to the secondary track, thus killing the one person on it but saving the five on the original track
** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
*** the problem is that that one person was otherwise not in danger and not wrongfully on the track
* steps to become a virtuous person:
*** is that sacrifice ethical?
*# practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
* the "utilitarian" view holds that it would be ethical and morally responsible to divert the trolley as it would save more lives
*# righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
** by "utilitarian" we mean a choice or action that benefits the most people, even at the expense of some others
*# good character leads to ''eudaimonia''
*** i.e. "maximize utility"
* classes (types) of virtue/ non-virtue people
* objections to the utilitarian response include:
*# knows right, does right, does not yield to temptation
** the engineer had no intention to harm the five but by diverting the trolley would have made a willful decision to kill the one; therefore the act would be morally objectionable
*# knows right, does right, but has to fight temptation
*** = deliberately harming anyone for any reason is morally wrong
*# knows right, falls to temptation thus does not do right
*** = violating the "doctrine of double effect," which states that deliberately causing harm, even for a good cause, is wrong
*# knows right, deliberately does wrong
* the Trolley problem shows up in other situations:
*## the worst of these deliberately imposes or leads others to do wrong
** artificial intelligence, such as driverless vehicles
 
** Isaac Asimov explored moral and ethical dilemmas regarding artificial intelligence in his collection of essays, "I Robot."
=== ethical or moral dilemma ===
*** Asimov envisioned the '''Three Laws of Robotics'''
click EXPAND to read the Three Laws of Robotics
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
First Law
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
Second Law
A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
Third Law
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
</pre></div>


==Standards/ Standardization==
* dilemma =  
=== standard meaning ===
** a situation that has dichotomous (or contrary) negative outcomes
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** i.e., "no good choices"
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
* see below for ethical lies
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
* ethical dilemma =
** etymology (word origin):
** a situation that presents or causes conflicting ethical requirements
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
*** "requirement" means a required ethical response or choice
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** i.e., if chosen or acted upon, it would be unethical
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
* conflict of interest
* '''standardize''' (verb)
** present ethical challenges
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** have degrees of severity
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement
*** such as the ethical requirement to follow a law against, say, trespassing
*** but such trespassing is required in order to save a life


=== purpose of standardization ===
=== lying ===
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
* lying happens all the time
** especially across large distances
* we might think of ethical degrees of lies
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"
** some lies may be justified, as in acting a character in a play or telling a joke
* forms of standardization include:0
** other lies have severe consequence
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
** any lie that deprives another from the truth, possible benefit, or causes harm is unethical
* effects of standardization include:
*** unless that lie avoids an even worse consequence upon either party
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization


=== law ===
==== types of lies ====
=== money ===
* bold-faced lie
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)
** flat-out lie told as if the absolute truth
notes to do:
* b.s.
* money & trade
** a lie that is obvious and exaggeration
** trade =
* broken promise
*** geography
** a promise made with no intention of carrying it out
*** movement
* cheating
*** scarcity/surplus
** cheating is a lot of things, but it is fundamentally a lie
*** technology
* deception
*** technological and cultural diffusion
* defamation
 
** lies with intent to "defame" or harm a person's reputation
==== history of money ====
* disinformation
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
** lies targeted at an audience to shape a belief, usually in politics or politically-tainted news reporting
* money must be:
* exaggeration
** '''scarce'''
** also called "puffery" for trying to be bigger than you really are
*** too much money reduces its value
* false dilemma
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
** a lie of omission in that it hides options or conditions that exist
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
** ex. "you either hate me or love me"
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
* fake news
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
** lies in news reporting with intent to hide or cover up something true
** '''transportable'''
* fraud
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
** deliberate deceit in order to make or defraud someone of money
** '''authentic'''  
* half truth
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
** a lie of omission, in that the intent of the lie is to create a false impression by withholding contrary evidence
** '''trusted'''
* ''little white lies''
*** government sanction
** seemingly inconsequential lies that cumulatively create a larger or ongoing deception
** '''permanent'''
* misleading statements
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
** contains a truth but is designed to deceive
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
* plagiarism
* early non-coinage forms of money:
** claiming as one's own what belongs or comes from someone else
** sea shells
* rumors
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
** also called "fabrication"
** cattle
* ''slip of the tongue''
** crops/ herbs/ spices
** an unintentional lie
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
** also called "misspeaking"
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
*** misspeaking becomes a lie when it is used intentionally to deceive or harm
** gems, gold, rare minerals
** telling something without certainty of its truefullness
*** measured by weight
* story-telling
* modern period money forms:
* white lie
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
** a lie that produces a positive outcome
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
** see below for lies and situational ethics
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
* sources:  
=== history of Coinage===
* [https://www.thehopeline.com/different-kinds-of-lies-you-tell/ Eight Types of Lies that People Tell - TheHopeLine]
* starts with the “touchstone”
* [[wikipedia:Lie|Lie - Wikipedia]]
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)


>> to do:
==== lies and situational ethics: life-threatening dilemma ====
Phoenicians: created currency
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
=== weights and measures ===
=== writing ===
> create new page for writing
* power of writing
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>


and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
* lying may be ethical if used to
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>
** avoid severe harm or save a life
 
*** ex., someone with clear intent to harm a resident knocks on the door, and is told that that person is not home
* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
* an ethical lie must avoid a seriously negative outcome
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
** without creating a worse ultimate outcome
</pre>
* ethical lies do not deprive another person from a legitimate outcome
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you


==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
==== Christian thought on lying ====
* details
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* sources:
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
** every lie is sinful
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====


==Historical sources & methods==
* a lie that does not pretend to be a truth
* tools and techniques to study history
** comedic effect
** entertainment
** fiction
** paternalistic lie
*** such as telling young children about Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny
** play-acting for conversation or entertainment


=== types of historical evidence ===
==== "Trolley problem" ====
* archeological evidence:
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA)
* scenario:
** carbon-material for dating
** a runaway (out of control) trolley is heading towards a track with five workers on it (or sometimes presented as five people tied up and who are unable to move)
=== primary source ===
** there is a secondary track that was not in the original pathway of the trolley and that has one person on it
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
** an engineer who sees the situation can divert the trolley to the secondary track, thus killing the one person on it but saving the five on the original track
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
*** the problem is that that one person was otherwise not in danger and not wrongfully on the track
* eye-witness testimony
*** is that sacrifice ethical?
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
* the "utilitarian" view holds that it would be ethical and morally responsible to divert the trolley as it would save more lives
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
** by "utilitarian" we mean a choice or action that benefits the most people, even at the expense of some others
** diaries
*** i.e. "maximize utility"
** personal letters
* objections to the utilitarian response include:
*** court testimony
** the engineer had no intention to harm the five but by diverting the trolley would have made a willful decision to kill the one; therefore the act would be morally objectionable
** oral history
*** = deliberately harming anyone for any reason is morally wrong
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
*** = violating the "doctrine of double effect," which states that deliberately causing harm, even for a good cause, is wrong
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
* the Trolley problem shows up in other situations:
* other original documents, including:
** artificial intelligence, such as driverless vehicles
** official papers
** Isaac Asimov explored moral and ethical dilemmas regarding artificial intelligence in his collection of essays, "I Robot."
** newspapers
*** Asimov envisioned the '''Three Laws of Robotics'''
click EXPAND to read the Three Laws of Robotics
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
First Law
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
Second Law
A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
Third Law
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
</pre></div>


=== secondary source ===
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
** could be contemporaneous or historical
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event




==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====  
== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==
* '''OPVL'''
 
** '''O'''rigin
=== Celebration Parallax ===
** '''P'''urpose
 
** '''V'''alue
* parallax = different views from different vantage points of the same object
** '''L'''imitation
** see Theory of Errors
* conceived by journalist Michael Anton, who defines the celebration parallax as
** "“the same fact pattern is either true and glorious or false and scurrilous depending on who states it.”
*** see [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]
*** Anton coined the term to criticize the disingenuity of 2010s politics and political statements that frequently denied unpopular policies but "celebrated" their imposition regardless of their popularity
* more plainly stated as the phenomenon of when an observer or public speaker denies the existence of something, then goes on to state that, "while it is not happening (or true), it's a good thing that it is"
* see also the "Law of Merited Impossibility"


* '''HAPP-y'''
=== Confirmation bias ===
** '''H'''istorical context
* observer bias limits observations to expected or desired outcomes
** '''A'''udience
* confirmation bias powerfully limits one's ability to see something from a different perspective and, therefore, to evaluate it effectively and accurately
** '''P'''urpose
* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
** '''P'''oint of view
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete


==Historiography==
=== Crab mentality ===
= the study of how history is studied
=== Historiographic schools ===  


=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
* also called "crabs in a bucket" effect or mentality
* confirmation bias
* when groups or individuals prefer to deny to others something they do not or cannot have
** see Confirmation bias
** out of jeaousy or resentment
* editorial bias
* expressed as: "If I can't have it, neither can you"
* hagiography
* see also the "Tall Poppy Syndrome"
** biography that idealizes the subject
** from Greek for writing about saints
* political bias
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
** although it could have bias in the work
* see Historiography section
 
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
>> to do
 
 
== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==


=== Confirmation bias ===
* observer bias limits observations to expected or desired outcomes
* confirmation bias powerfully limits one's ability to see something from a different perspective and, therefore, to evaluate it effectively and accurately
* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
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* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions
=== Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) ===
[[File:Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking.jpg|thumb|Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking. Peripheral Route is to the left ("biased") and Central Route to the right ("ojbective")]]
* identifies the association between persuasion and bias
* "elaboration" means the extent to which a person engages in objective mental processing before making a decision or adopting a point of view
* ELM shows that much persuasion is driven by perceptions of status
** i.e. high or low status perceptions drive people's attitudes towards persuasion
* ELM identifies two paths to persuasion or "attitude change":
*# high-elaboration likelihood, called "Central Route" = motivated to engage the argument with critical thought open to evidence
*# low-elaboration likelihood, called "Peripheral Route" = external cues or influences are present that shape reception to the argument without critical thought
* the "Central Route" requires intellectual honesty and engagement
* the "Peripheral Route" engages biases and emotional states and yields little critical thought
** related to confirmation bias and [[logical fallacy]]
* the "Route" taken at any given time is related to a person's self-perceived social status or that of the source of the argument or information (or persuation)
** that is, people process arguments or new information according to their perception of the source of that argument or information
** also called "prestige bias"
* "Motivation" strongly impacts the "Route" taken by the recipient of the information/ persuasion (i.e., decision-maker)
** motivation = conditions, desires, perspectives, or states of mind that influence a decision
** thus motivation may engage biases and thus the "Peripheral Route"
* see
** [[wikipedia:Elaboration_likelihood_model|Elaboration likelihood model - Wikipedia]]
** [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People]
*** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/after-service/202105/do-the-most-educated-people-look-down-everyone-else Do the Most Educated People Look Down on Everyone Else? | Psychology Today]
=== Entropy ===
* "entropy" is the 2nd Newtonian Law of physics that energy will move from high to low systems
** i.e., a something hot will transfer its heat to something colder
* in Social Sciences, entropy indicates that systems will tend to decline over time\
** related to ''Thucydides Trap'' and ''Stein's Law''


=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
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*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
*** which motivated them to work harder
*** which motivated them to work harder
* Hawthorne effects may change observational data
** called "clinical trial effect", in drug or medical testing, some patients may respond to the attention they receive from providers and not necessarily the drug or procedure being measured
*** "placebo effects" are positive results in control patients (those who do not receive the drug or procedure)
**** placebo effects are a "reactivity" phenomenon by which the patient changes attitude, behavior or undergo a subconscious reaction to a situation that changes the patient's outcomes
* related to:
** "Turing paradox" by which the act of measurement changes the physical properties of what is being measured (applies to subatomic quantum systems)
** Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure".


=== Illusion of truth paradox ===
=== Illusion of truth paradox ===


* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
=== Inventor's paradox ===
* from mathematician George Pólya in "[[wikipedia:How_to_Solve_It|How to Solve It]]":
** a phenomenon by which a solution to a particular problem is found by seeking a solution to another, more general problem
*** and that investigation to the general problem yields a solution to the particular problem that was previously unapparent
* the idea is to look beyond the immediate problem to a larger generality, then apply it backwards to the particular
* in mathematics
** to add all the numbers from 1-99 would be difficult to do in one's head
** so, instead of thinking through 1+2=3, +4 = 7, +5 = 12, + 6 = 18
** we can "generalize" to adding numbers that add up to 100, as in
*** 1+99 = 100, 2+98 = 200, 3+97= 100
*** we can then assume that there will be 49 such pairs of numbers, which = 4,900 (49 x 100)
*** these pairs leave the number 50, so we have to add 50: 4,900 + 50 = 4,950
** see [[wikipedia:Inventor's_paradox|Inventor's paradox - Wikipedia]]
* the less mathematically inclined might call it the "Lost Keys Paradox"
=== Law of Merited Impossibility ===
* a statement that denies the existence or possibility of something, but then condemns those who oppose it
** used to denigrate those of an opposing position
** i.e., “That will ''never'' happen, and when it does, boy will you deserve it.”
*** see Michael Anton's "Celebration Parallax" above or [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]
=== Lost keys paradox ===
* the [[lost keys paradox]] is that when looking for where you put the keys, you will only find them when you go looking for something else, such as your glasses, or  your phone
* a possible explanation for the Lost Keys Paradox is that our focus of attention can be limited to a particular goal or activity, which, blinds us to alternative solutions
** thus it is a form of confirmation bias
* when freed of the bias of seeking one particular thing, we are more likely to discover the unexpected solution that we could not see while focused solely on that one thing
* coined by [[User:Bromley|Michael Bromley]]


=== Mediocrity paradox ===
=== Mediocrity paradox ===
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* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency
* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency


=== Munchausen syndrome ===
* named for the fictional character Baron Munchausen, an absurd adventurer who recounted ridiculous stories, such as riding on a cannonball, with objectivity and detachment
* = a "factititious disorder" in which a person tells exaggerated or dramatic stories with the intent to impress or deceive
* the Munchausen syndrome is also used to express "circular logic," as in the story of Munchausen saving himself from drowning by pulling himself out of the water by his own hair
* see entry for [[Baron von Munchausen]]
* in psychology, the "Munchausen Syndrome" is a serious mental health condition in which the patient imagines or feigns illness, injury or other trauma in order to draw attention or garner sympathy
** = similar but not the same as
*** ''hypochondria'', the condition of thinking that one has or hyper-concern about having a disease or medical condition that does not exist
**** thus the joke that, "even hypochondriacs get sick sometimes"
*** ''psychosomatic illness'', an actual illness that has no percievable physical cause or underlying condition
***
=== Narrative Fallacy ===
=== Narrative Fallacy ===


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* also called '''"spinning"''', which is to "spin" or redirect a negative into a positive  
* also called '''"spinning"''', which is to "spin" or redirect a negative into a positive  


=== Rorschach test ===
=== Prestige bias / Prestige paradox ===
 
* also called "myside bias" (a form of confirmation bias)
* the idea that perceptions of status drive people's attitudes and decision making
* it is a "paradox" is because people with self-perceived "high status" are less likely to think objectively (without bias)
** because "high status" people are "preoccupied with how others perceive them"
* see [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People] 
** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]
 
=== Rorschach test ===


* from the "Rorschach Inkblot Test"
* from the "Rorschach Inkblot Test"
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* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
** so one must be careful in its application
** so one must be careful in its application
=== Seven is the most selected number ===
* 7 is the number most frequently chosen by people when asked to select a number between 1 and 9
** see [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232582800_Predominance_of_seven_and_the_apparent_spontaneity_of_numerical_choices |  The Predominance of Seven and the Apparent Spontaneity of Numerical Choice]
* 7 is considered lucky or holy in many cultures and religions
** "lucky seven"
** in Vietnam, 7 is an unlucky number
=== Smarter than the Average bias ===
* the bias of the more than half of people who believe they are smarter than the average person
** see [https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0200103 65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence]
* = a form of confirmation bias
** in which people compare themselves to only their own surroundings
** it is possible for a person to be smarter than most of those around them, yet less smart than the average
** it is equally possible for a person to be less smart then those around them, yet smarter than the average
** this same type of bias is why Americans frequently under- or over-estimate the percentage ethnic breakdown of U.S. demographics
*** they frequently think that their own race is more dominant than it is
*** or that a race that has a larger presence in their lives (surroundings, media, etc.) than it actually has
=== Streisand effect ===
* a form of "psychological reactance" by which people become interested in something only after they are told they are not allowed to know about it
** = an unintended consequence of censorship
* called the "Streisand" effect because, when the singer/actor Barbara Streisand threatened to sue a photographer for publishing an aerial photo of her house in California.
** the lawsuit generated publicity, and people became interested in seeing Streisand's house because of it
*** when they before the lawsuit had no interest in it at all
* similar to the "Howard Stern effect" , which is the phenomenon of celebrities who attracts an audience from people who hate them more than of those who like them
** named for "shock jock" Howard Stern, a radio personality, who specializes in offensive, rude, or shocking content
=== Tall poppy syndrome ===
* criticism, scrutiny, resentment and even legal recourse against successful people
* i.e., the "tall poppy" gets cut down because it is higher than the rest
* related to "Law of Jante"
** a social code (tradition, more, informal rule) in Denmark that disapproves of expressions of individuality or personal success
* egalitarian tribal culture also dislikes stand-outs
** some tribes will assault anyone who brags or shows off
** the idea is that an individual who is or acts better than others endangers tribal coherence and is a threat to take over the tribe
* see also "crab mentality"
=== Theory of errors ===
* also called "observational errors"
* the rule that given an accumulation of even erroneous observations, the mean or average of all observations will generally yield a correct observation
* in statistics, it is called "Propagation of uncertainty", and it is used to
** used famously to identify the correct location of a moon of Saturn by taking the average of a series of incorrect observations, which yielded the precise location of the moon
* theory of errors is similar to "wisdom of the crowd", a phenomenon that affirms that the average opinion or action of a crowd is likely the correct one
** a test of the wisdom of the crowd would be to ask random people the number bubble gum balls in a jar.
*** individuals guesses will be incorrect
*** but the average of all guesses will yield a close or proximate answer


=== Other/ todo ===
=== Other/ todo ===
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* attribution to experts fallacy
* attribution to experts fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
* wisdom of the crowd
*
== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
=== Glasl's model of conflict escalation ===
[[File:Glasl's Model of Conflict Escalation.svg|thumb|Glasl's "Nine stages of conflict escalation"|385x385px]]
* when analyzing conflict, diplomacy, events, etc. students may employ the conceptual framework of "conflict escalation" by Friedrich Glasl ([[wikipedia:Friedrich_Glasl's_model_of_conflict_escalation|here from wikipedia]])
* Glasl's model divides disagreement or conflict scenarios into "stages" based upon three core outcomes:
** win-win
*** both sides benefit
** win-lose
*** one side benefits, the other loses
** lose-lose
*** conflict w/ bad outcomes for one or both parties
* conflicts escalate through and into:
** tension and dispute
** debate
** communication loss
** coalition building (seeking sympathy or help from others)
** denunciation
** loss of face (pride)
** threats and feelings of threat
** depersonalization (treating the other as not human)
** attack, annihilation, defeat
* deescalation includes:
** mediation from third-party (intercession, intermediation)
** process guidance
** arbitration, legal actions
** forcible intervention, especially from higher power
* Glasl's model works at the individual (a family fight) or global level (international affairs)
=== Graham's hierarchy of disagreement ===
[[File:Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement-en.svg|thumb|Graham's hierarchy of disagreement]]
* tech entrepreneur Paul Graham in 2008 proposed a model for levels (hierarchies) of disagreement
* the top of the hierarchy is refutation of the "central point"
** i.e., that the opposing idea is fundamentally "refuted"
*** via logic, demonstration, evidence, etc.
* the bottom of the hierarchy is "Name-calling", which leads to no resolution and further anger or dispute
* key points in the negative side of the hierarchy are essentially [[Logical fallacy|logical fallacies]]:
** name-calling (ad hominem) and
** criticism of tone or attitude rather than substance ("responding to tone")
** contractions without evidence
* on the constructive side are
** strong argument via reason, logic, evidence
** refutation: proof
=== Overton Window ===
* [[File:Overton Window diagram.svg|thumb|An illustration of the Overton window, along with Treviño's degrees of acceptance]]Joseph Overton observed that along the spectrum of social or political thought, policy, or opinion
** there exists a mainstream "middle" of consensus
*** that middle may have variances, but most people generally agree with it
** with extremes on both sides that are not generally accepted
** however, as one extreme or the other becomes acceptable, they enter into the "Overton Window"
** example:
*** in the 1950s, rock music was considered anti-social, thus lay outside of the Overton Window
*** as its popularity grew, especially following Elvis Presley, rock music became popular music
**** and thus, entered the Overton Window
* in the Overton Window, "Policy" should reflect a consensus of points of view within the window, and will move according to changes within that window
** so, while "Policy" may not always reflect the middle of the Window, it acts to reflect changes in the window.


== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
=== regression to the mean ===
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
* Social Scientist Max Weber attributed the economic success of U.S. and northwestern European nations to their dominant "Protestant work ethic"
* based on
** individualism and notions of self-sufficiency
** ethics of hard work, timeliness, frugality, etc.
*** that cumulatively yielded productive economies and a dominant middle class
* note that Weber's seen today by "critical race" theorists as elements of "white privilege"


==External Resources==
==External Resources==
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=== History jokes ===
=== History jokes ===


==== Ancient history jokes ====
* What did ancient Mesopotamians wear to work?
* What did ancient Mesopotamians wear to work?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
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</div>
</div>


* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
* Why is it called "Mesopotamia"?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
</div>
</div>


* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
</div>
</div>


* Why is it called "Mesopotamia"?
==== Europe jokes ====
** click EXPAND for the answer:
* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
</div>
</div>
* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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</div>
</div>


* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?
==== Roman jokes ====
** click EXPAND for the answer:
 
* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''Plymouth Rock'''''
* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
</div>
</div>


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</div>
</div>


I don't like how the months don't line up with their number, like September, October, November, December.
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''Whoever did that should really be stabbed.'''''
</div>
==== Viking jokes ====
* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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</div>
</div>


* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
==== Pilgrim jokes ====
* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?  
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
* '''''Plymouth Rock'''''
</div>
</div>


==== World War I & II jokes ====
* Why was WWI so quick?  
* Why was WWI so quick?  
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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