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** we can think of causality as a "chain"
** we can think of causality as a "chain"


=== Agency, catalysts & triggers ===
=== Agency, catalysts, triggers & constraints ===
* = things that contribute to, facilitate, or make or things happen (or not)
* = things that contribute to, facilitate, or make or things happen (or not)
* "agency" comes from [[Indo-European word origins in proto-Indo-European (PIE) language|PIE]] root '''*ag-''' meaning "to drive, draw out, move"
** thus ''act, action, agent, agency'' = something happening or making something happen


==== Agent / agency ====
==== Agent / agency ====
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* "agent" = someone who makes something happen, such as:
* "agent" = someone who makes something happen, such as:
** "travel agents" make travel happen, "secret agents" make secrets/spying happen
** "travel agents" make travel happen, "secret agents" make secrets/spying happen
* see "human agency" below


==== Catalysts ====
==== Catalyst ====
* similar to an agent but may not be deliberate
* similar to an agent but may not be deliberate
** more like a condition that creates or facilitates change  
** more like a condition that creates or facilitates change  
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* not necessarily deliberate
* not necessarily deliberate
** such as, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand by Serbian nationalists triggered World War I"
** such as, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand by Serbian nationalists triggered World War I"
==== Constraint ====
* whereas outcomes are shaped by agency, catalysts, and triggers,
** constraints always exist and shape outcomes
* "constraint" =
** '''''con-'''''  (with) '''+''' ''*'''strain''''' (bound, pulled together)
** thus "with limits"


=== Necessary v. sufficient causes ===
=== Necessary v. sufficient causes ===
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=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
>> to do
>> to do
=== butterfly effect ===
> small effects that lead to larger events
>> to do: George Washington sparking the French-Indian War
=== Goldilocks principle ===
* like Goldilocks who found the right bowl of porridge and bed to sleep on,
** the "just right amount" is the "Goldilocks Principle"
** = the sufficient (needed and perfect) conditions for something to happen
* ex.
** habitable planets require a perfect set of conditions to support life, which only earth presents
*** see the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
** in economics, the Goldilocks economy is one in which economic inputs (trends/ happenings) are in balance and the economy is stable (very rare)


==Contingency==
==Contingency==
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=== Dictators paradox ===
=== Dictators paradox ===


* from Presidnt Herbert Hoover  
* from President Herbert Hoover (1927-1931):
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
* the idea that  
* the idea that  
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==== Tyrants paradox ====
==== Tyrants paradox ====
* local leaders are chosen by the dominant power
* local leaders are chosen by the dominant power
* but do not have support of local population
** but do not have support of local population
* as opposed to "'''subsidiary'''" = local control, which has greater access to local information


==== Utopia paradox ====
==== Utopia paradox ====
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*** monarchy, tyranny, totatalitarian, etc.
*** monarchy, tyranny, totatalitarian, etc.
"wide distribution" of power = decentralized governance
"wide distribution" of power = decentralized governance
** may include:
*may include:
** democracy, anarchy
** democracy, anarchy
* no society is all one or the other
* no society is all one or the other
** even anarchy essentially distributes power to the individual level, which may be coercive at that level
** even anarchy essentially distributes power to the individual level, which may be coercive at that level
** even a totalitarian society may allow for family units which govern themselves or religious freedoms
** even a totalitarian society may allow for family units which govern themselves or religious freedoms
* see "Social Organization" above
=== political dissent ===
* those disenfranchised by disparate distributions of power may seek alternative forms of expressing dissent or confronting larger powers


=== Social organization ===
==== asymmetric warfare ====
[[File:Social-organization-chart GunsGermsSteel p268-9 rotated.jpg|right|450px|alt=|For educational purposes only ** do not distribute **]]
 
* In "Guns, Germs & Steel," Jared Diamond analyzed social organization by type and characteristics
==== Heckler's veto ====
* his chart serves a very useful comparative tool
** especially for measuring social organization over time and place


* Dunbar's number:
* disruptions of events and political advocacy deliberately intended to shut them down
<pre>"Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships—relationships in which an individual knows who each person is and how each person relates to every other person"
** ex. A threat is called in to an arena where a speech is to take place, and the venue is shut down, resulting in a "veto" of that speech, as it was not given as a result of the threat
from [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number Dunbar's Number (wiki)]]</pre>


=== Revolution paradox ===
=== Revolution paradox ===
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=== Thucydides Trap ===
=== Thucydides Trap ===
=== Tocqueville effect ===
=== Tocqueville effect ===
* or "Tocqueveill paradox"
* or "Tocqueville paradox"
* Alexis de Tocqueville noted that  
* Alexis de Tocqueville noted that
<pre>"The hatred that men bear to privilege increases in proportion as privileges become fewer and less considerable, so that democratic passions would seem to burn most fiercely just when they have least fuel. I have already given the reason for this phenomenon. When all conditions are unequal, no inequality is so great as to offend the eye, whereas the slightest dissimilarity is odious in the midst of general uniformity; the more complete this uniformity is, the more insupportable the sight of such a difference becomes. Hence it is natural that the love of equality should constantly increase together with equality itself, and that it should grow by what it feeds on."
<pre>"The hatred that men bear to privilege increases in proportion as privileges become fewer and less considerable, so that democratic passions would seem to burn most fiercely just when they have least fuel. I have already given the reason for this phenomenon. When all conditions are unequal, no inequality is so great as to offend the eye, whereas the slightest dissimilarity is odious in the midst of general uniformity; the more complete this uniformity is, the more insupportable the sight of such a difference becomes. Hence it is natural that the love of equality should constantly increase together with equality itself, and that it should grow by what it feeds on."
- Tocqueville, Alexis de (1840). "Chapter III: That the sentiments of democratic nations accord with their opinions in leading them to concentrate political power". Democracy in America
- Tocqueville, Alexis de (1840). "Chapter III: That the sentiments of democratic nations accord with their opinions in leading them to concentrate political power". Democracy in America
</pre>
</pre>


>> todo: bring in Mancur Olson and Theory of Groups >> see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mancur_Olson wiki entry Mancur Olson] about how interests tend to coalesce over time and focus on protection of gains, stifling innovation... organizations become "congealed" (from("How Phil Falcone Was LightSnared" WSJ, Homlan W. Jenkins, Jr. 2/18/2012") and resist competition and protect the status quo
* The "Tocqueville effect" occurs when marginal portions of society gain economic and/or political power and their demands for reform increase, along with attacks on the established order upon which the greater equality arose.
 
>> todo: bring in Mancur Olson and Theory of Groups >> see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mancur_Olson wiki entry Mancur Olson] about how interests tend to coalesce over time and focus on protection of gains, stifling innovation... organizations become "congealed" (from "How Phil Falcone Was LightSnared" WSJ, Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. 2/18/2012) and resist competition and protect the status quo.
 
==== Easterlin paradox ====
* similarly to Tocqueville's observations, in 1974 Univ Penn Professor Richard Easterlin noted that the growth in (gross, or overall, national) happiness tends to diverge from growth in economic wealth. Whereas overall growth in happiness parallels economic growth in initial stages, as
* an explanation for the effect is "social comparison," which states that people take a relativistic and not absolute view of their individual wealth or position in society:
** i.e., people do not view their personal wealth in terms of what it actually is ("absolute")
** and instead view is in comparison to others ("relative")
 
=== Economic disparity ===
 
* a measure of disparities in income distribution across an economic unit or country
** i.e., the extent to which income is distributed equally or unequally
** ex. high economic dispary means that a small percentage of a country controls a high percentage of that country's assets or economic activity
* see [[wikipedia:Gini_coefficient|Gini coefficient - Wikipedia]]
* see Thomas Picketty / todo
* problems include
** while a certain segment of a population may control a significant portion of assets, it may not also constitute a disproportionate amount of economic activity
** government dispersals of or redistribution of income may hide underlying economic disparities in standards of living, purchasing power, etc.


==Order & Chaos==
==Order & Chaos==
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** inability to self-correct
** inability to self-correct
* consequences of too much order:  
* consequences of too much order:  
** lack of feedback and information  
** lack of feedback and information
** dissolution and atrophy
** dissolution and atrophy
** systems decline, can't adjust to change
** systems decline, can't adjust to change
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* feedback and self-adjustment without a need for drastic change
* feedback and self-adjustment without a need for drastic change
* Thomas Jefferson idea of generational revolution
* Thomas Jefferson idea of generational revolution
** Jefferson believed that each generation required a renewal from the prior  
** Jefferson believed that each generation required a renewal from the prior
>> source to do
>> source to do


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** Xerxes punishes the Hellespont for disobeying him
** Xerxes punishes the Hellespont for disobeying him
*** after a storm wrecked his boat-bridge across the Hellespont, Xerxes ordered soldiers to whip its surface in punishment for insubordination
*** after a storm wrecked his boat-bridge across the Hellespont, Xerxes ordered soldiers to whip its surface in punishment for insubordination
=== Ritual ===
=== Ritual ===
* to bring certainty to uncertain events
* to bring certainty to uncertain events
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==Identity==
==Identity==
* details
* details
* sources:  
* sources:
===Literature & Arts ===
===Literature & Arts ===
* links
* links
===Architecture===
===Architecture===


Types & periods of human organization & food sources
=== Hunter-gatherers ===
* subsistence economy
** self-provision (getting) of food, clothing, shelter
** from Latin ''subsistens'' for "to stand still or firm"
*** ''sub-'' (under) + ''sistere'' (staying still, in place)
*** from [[PIE proto-Indo-European language|PIE]] '''*sta'''- to stand, make still
* band / tribe
* nomadic (moving about)
* technologies
** stone hunting tools
** plant, especially seed identification and
* trade limited to objects not surplus food
=== Pastoral / pastoralism ===
* subsistence economy
* herding animals
* animal husbandry / domestication / livestock
* nomadic, semi-nomadic
*
=== Pastoral farmers ===
* subsistence economy
* sedentary (not moving, not nomadic)
* animal husbandry (controlled domesticates, livestock)
* seasonal or early planting
=== Farmers ===
* ranges from subsistence to trade economy
* sedentary
** transition to defined areas ("farms")
* planting & animal husbandry
** specialization
** division of labor
** technology
** expansion of trade
=== Urbanization ===
* sedentary
* trade economy
* farming-based food supply
* specialization
* social and political organization
* state monopoly on force
=== Civilization ===
* from city-states to empire
* trade economy
* standardization
* state monopoly on force
* writing systems<br />
== Social & Political Organization ==
* structures, systems, rules, identities
** social = culture, religion, education, entertainment
** political = governance
[[File:Social-organization-chart GunsGermsSteel p268-9 rotated.jpg|right|450px|alt=|For educational purposes only ** do not distribute **]]
* In "Guns, Germs & Steel," Jared Diamond analyzed social organization by type and characteristics
* his chart serves a very useful comparative tool
** especially for measuring social organization over time and place
* Dunbar's number:
<pre>"Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can maintain stable social relationships—relationships in which an individual knows who each person is and how each person relates to every other person"
from [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number Dunbar's Number (wiki)]]</pre>


==Social, Political and Economic Structures==
==Social, Political and Economic Structures==
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** From Discourses on Livy, CHAPTER XVI
** From Discourses on Livy, CHAPTER XVI
*** select expand to see quotation
*** select expand to see quotation
=== Human agency & leadership ===
* an element of contingency, choice, represents "human agency"
** "agent" = a causal element, i.e., that makes things happen
** thus "human agency" = the choice and actions of people in historical events and outcomes
* while organizations, conditions, structures, geography, etc. largely shape historical conditions and outcomes
** human agency, or choice and actions, is how history happens
* thus "leadership" is as important as structures
** however, human agency is limited by available choice
*** i.e., leaders of an inland country, say Mongolia, will not likely choose or be able to create a maritime empire
**** instead, effective leadership did organize Mongolia into a land-based empire using existing structural elements of Mongolian geography, economy, and culture
**** then, using that land-based power, the Mongols conquered China, established the Yuan Dynasty, and used Chinese structures and culture to build a maritime power.
* see [[Leadership]] entry
==Standards/ Standardization==
=== standard meaning ===
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
** etymology (word origin):
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
* '''standardize''' (verb)
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement
=== purpose of standardization ===
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
** especially across large distances
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"
* forms of standardization include:0
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
* effects of standardization include:
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization
=== law ===
=== money ===
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)
notes to do:
* money & trade
** trade =
*** geography
*** movement
*** scarcity/surplus
*** technology
*** technological and cultural diffusion
==== history of money ====
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
* money must be:
** '''scarce'''
*** too much money reduces its value
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
** '''transportable'''
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
** '''authentic'''
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
** '''trusted'''
*** government sanction
** '''permanent'''
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
* early non-coinage forms of money:
** sea shells
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
** cattle
** crops/ herbs/ spices
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
** gems, gold, rare minerals
*** measured by weight
* modern period money forms:
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
=== history of Coinage===
* starts with the “touchstone”
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)
>> to do:
Phoenicians: created currency
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
=== weights and measures ===
=== writing ===
> create new page for writing
* power of writing
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>
and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>
* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
</pre>
==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
* details
* sources:
==Historical sources & methods==
* tools and techniques to study history
=== types of historical evidence ===
* archeological evidence:
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA) 
** carbon-material for dating
=== primary source ===
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
* eye-witness testimony
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
** diaries
** personal letters
*** court testimony
** oral history
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
* other original documents, including:
** official papers
** newspapers
=== secondary source ===
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
** could be contemporaneous or historical
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event
==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====
* '''OPVL'''
** '''O'''rigin
** '''P'''urpose
** '''V'''alue
** '''L'''imitation
* '''HAPP-y'''
** '''H'''istorical context
** '''A'''udience
** '''P'''urpose
** '''P'''oint of view
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete
==Historiography==
= the study of how history is studied
=== Historiographic schools ===
=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
* confirmation bias
** see Confirmation bias
* editorial bias
* hagiography
** biography that idealizes the subject
** from Greek for writing about saints
* political bias
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
** although it could have bias in the work
* see Historiography section
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
>> to do


== Economics ==
== Economics ==
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** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]
** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]


===Opportunity Cost===
=== Desire Path ===
* Definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
[[File:Desire path - 52849400711.jpg|thumb|right|A desire path between concrete sidewalks at the Ohio State University (wikipedia)]]
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
* specifically: a path created by people off or outside of an established, planned path
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
* generally: the idea that people will more efficiently choose their methods and means of conducting day-to-day affairs better than planners
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
** related to Frederick Hayeks' idea of the "emergent order" created by accumulated individual decisions rather than by a collective decision
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
 
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
=== Economies of scale ===
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
* definition: lower costs of production based upon higher volume
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
** i.e., the larger the production facility, the cheaper it costs to produce any single item
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
* economies of scale result from:
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
** greater efficiency in higher production rates
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
** greater purchasing power to lower costs of supplies and materials
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
** lower per capita labor cost per cost of unit produced
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
 
* ''Parable of the broken window''
=== Free markets ===
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
 
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 Milton Friedman video explaining power of free markets] (YouTube)
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
* Basquiat
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
** modest proposal << to do
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
* Hayek
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
** dispersed knowledge
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
** emergent order/ spontaneous order
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
* Locke
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
* Smith
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
** invisible hand
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
** universities
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
 
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
=== Gresham's law ===
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
 
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
* "Bad money drives out good money"
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
** Sir Thomas Gresham (1519–1579), was an English financier in the 16th century
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
** he advised Queen Elizabeth to restore confidence in the English currency, which had been "debased" (made impure)
</div>
** Gresham argued that the monetary value of coinage should equal the value of its metallic base
* Examples:
*** i.e., $1.00 gold coin should be worth the weight in gold of that coin
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* inflation results from "bad" money
* Questions:
* historical instances include:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** Roman empire debasement of silver coins (from 92% purity to
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?
** Yuan Dynasty issuance of paper money to finance war, resulting in inflation
 
==== "I Pencil" ====
 
* a parable in which a pencil describes to the narrator just how magical its creation is
* the pencil describes the complex processes and knowledge required for the production of a simple pencil
* see [https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)]


=== Herbert Stein's Law ===
=== Herbert Stein's law ===
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate  
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate  
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** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein
* Stein's law is an expression of "Regression to the Mean" (see entry)


=== Jevons Paradox ===
=== Jevons paradox ===
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
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** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm
=== Lucas critique ===
* Univ. of Chicago professor Robert Lucas "critiqued" (criticized) macroeconomic theories or models that describe large-scale systems, especially as drawn from "aggregated data" (accumulated) won't impact individual choices or behaviors, or those individual choices and behaviors won't change
** in other words, macroeconomic models fail to account for micro-economic or individual behaviors
* the utility of the Lucas critique is to point out that policy makes often fail to recognize that individuals make rational decisions that macroeconomic forecasting cannot account for.


=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
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! Efficiency of Outcome
! Efficiency of Outcome
|-  
|-  
| style="width: 30%"| '''You spend your money...'''  || '''on yourself'''  
| style="width: 30%" | '''You spend your money...'''  || '''on yourself'''  
||  
||
* seek highest value
* seek highest value
* with lowest cost  
* with lowest cost
* = maximum efficiency
* = maximum efficiency
|-
|-
|-  
|-  
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
||  
||
* seek highest value
* seek highest value
* no concern for cost
* no concern for cost
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|-
|-
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''  
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''  
||  
||
* seek lowest cost
* seek lowest cost
* no concern for quality
* no concern for quality
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|-
|-
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''  
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''  
||  
||
* no concern for cost
* no concern for cost
* no concern for quality
* no concern for quality
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</div>
</div>


=== Opportunity Cost ===
* definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* ''Parable of the broken window''
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
</div>
* Examples:
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* Questions:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?
=== Pareto Principle ===
* also known as the "80/20 rule" or "law of the vital few"
* = the idea that 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
* the early Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) observed that
** in Italy 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the population
* other observers have found that many natural and human systems follow this distribution pattern<br />


=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
* 80/20 rule
* 80/20 rule (see the "Pareto Principle" above)
* diminishing returns
* diminishing returns
* emergent order
* emergent order
*
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
* client politics
* client politics
*  
* churning
** assets churning
*** a form of rent seeking whereby a regulated public utility seeks replacement infrastructure solely for the purpose of generating interest income on the investment, and not for a genuine need for that infrastructure, or, worse, intentionally investing in assets or infrastructure that will require future replacement (see "planned obsolescence")
** brokerage churning
* externalities
* externalities
* Inflation/ deflation
* Inflation/ deflation
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
* Pareto Principle
* planned obsolescence
** obsolescence = out of date, no longer useful or appealing
** deliberate design for a product or asset to require replacement
** practices may include, automobile or cell phone design to entire consumers to purchase based upon a new "look", fad, or feature that does not make the previous version obsolete
* public goods
* public goods
* regulatory capture
* regulatory capture
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*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"
*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"


== Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes ==


== Logic and observational fallacies ==
* see Economics section for economics-related fallacies and paradoxes
* see [[Logical fallacy|'''Logical fallacy''']] for list of fallacies especially regarding logic and argumentation


=== Benchmark fallacy ===
=== Benchmark fallacy ===
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</div>
</div>


=== confirmation bias ===
=== Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon / Frequency Illusion/ New Car Syndrome ===
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from what one wants to observe
 
** seeing only what you want to see
* the phenomenon in which upon buying a new car, one all of a sudden sees other cars of the same model or color that one didn't notice before
* first identified as the "Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon" following an internet message board user who mentioned the name of the German terrorist organization, Baader-Meinhof, realized that he started seeing numerous references to the group, even though he had never noticed it before
* the phenomenon was later labeled "frequency illusion," in reference to the tendency to notice things only after noticing it for the first time, which leads to the assumption that the frequency of that thing is greater than it really is
** i.e., it was always there
** but the person didn't notice until first experiencing or observing it
* thus the "new car syndrome"
 
=== "Cargo Cult" fallacy ===
* fallacy of superficially mimicking someone, something, or some activity will result in the same benefits accrued to those who are being copied
** i.e., by taking sticks and marching in military-lines, that one would have the same power as the real army being mimicked
* in science, called "cargo cult science", whereby one researcher copies the results of another without testing it independently
* the term "cargo cult" originated in belief by indigenous Pacific islanders that ritualistic mimicking of Western symbols, constructions or actions would yield the same benefits observed of those westerners
** especially construction of mini-airstrips and models of airplanes that the U.S. military brought to Pacific Islands during WWII would also yield the benefits those things brought to the westerners, such as material goods, health care, etc.
* the term "cargo cult" was coined by Australian planters in Papua New Guinea
** anthropologists adopted the coin regarding certain indigenous beliefs across Melanesia (eastern Pacific islands)
 
=== Confirmation bias ===
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
** akak
*** seeing only what you want to see
*** "to a hammer, everything is a nail"
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
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* origins of the idea of confirmation bias  
* origins of the idea of confirmation bias  
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")
 
*David Hume and confirmaton bias
*examples of confirmation bias
**The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
* David Hume  
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
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** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
* may also be called "motivated reasoning"
** i.e. drawing conclusions ("reasoning") based upon bias or reason for ("motives")
* see:
** [http://www.devpsy.org/teaching/method/confirmation_bias.html Confirmation Bias & Wason (1960) 2-4-6 Task (devpsy.org)]
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201905/the-curious-case-of-confirmation-bias The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias | Psychology Today]
==== historical examples of confirmation bias ====
*in 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain returned from Germany after signing the Munich Agreement, under which Hitler agreed not to many further claims on Czechsolvakian territory (after siezing the Sudetenland), and announced that the agreement would bring "peace for our time."
**within six months Germany had annexed more of Czechoslavia and would soon after invade Poland.
**Chamberlain and his allied nations so wanted Hitler not to be a problem that they accepted anything he proposed thinking that appeasing him would stop his agression.
*the Salem Witch Trials of 1692 were driven by confirmation bias that considered evidence gave proof of witchcraft, and even otherwise harmless things, like a broken fence, served as proof of it.
**Worse, authorities accepted without question ridiculous claims such as that a witch supposedly made cows jump
*The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
=== Correlation is not causation ===
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy
=== False dilemma fallacy ===
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it
=== Framing effect ===
* the 'effect" or phenomenon that people will select an option based upon how it is "framed" in positive or negative terms
* the framing effect occurs when the options are of equal value (are the same), even if presented in oppositive terms
** the difference is in how it is presented or perceived by the decision maker
* examples:
** 33% survive v. 66% die
*** A) given this choice, 33% of people will be saved; versus
*** B) given this choice, 66% of people will die
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because it focuses on lives" saved" versus "people who will die"
**** even though both outcomes are the same (33% saved = 66% die)
** an event has a late registration fee
*** option A) the late registration fee is highlighted on top of the regular cost of registration
*** option B) regular registration is treated as a discount from the total cost of late registration
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because they want to avoid the perceived additional cost
**** even though the early registration for A) is the same as for B)
** an opinion poll asks for support of a policy, with emphasis on either its positive or negative impact
*** A) 100,000 people will get jobs, while only 10,000 unemployed will result
*** B) 10,000 people will lose jobs, while only 100,000 people will find employment
**** respondents prefer A) due to its positive emphasis on jobs gained
**** even though the net jobs gained or lost are the same
=== Gambler's fallacy ===
* the idea that past performance necessarily indicates future results
** either that since it happened in the past, it will continue
** or, if it happened in the past, it will not happen again
* the fallacy is especially important in random events, such as gambling (cards, dice)
* see Law of Averages and Regression to the Mean


=== Heinlein's Razor ===
=== Heinlein's Razor ===
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
** similar to Occam's Razor, which posits that the most direct explanation is likely the most accurate
** in that many human endeavors are the result of "incompetence" as much as good or bad intention
** makes for a good test for "conspiracy theories"
*from wikipedia:  
A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
 
=== Law of averages ===
 
* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
** in other words, the more times something happens, the more likely the results will be the same
* the classic example is coin tossing
** the more coin tosses the more likely the result between heads or tails to be 50/50
* related to
** the "law of large numbers" from  Jakob Bernoulli
** "regression to the mean"
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers
 
=== Loss aversion ===
 
* a psychological disposition to not want to lose out or not have something
* loss aversion occurs when people give up something of value or that is functional in exchange for something new that isn't needed
** ex. getting the latest cell phone even though your current one is working fine
* loss aversion drives decisions by "not wanting to lose out" on something


=== necessary and sufficient conditions ===
=== Necessary and sufficient conditions ===
* necessary conditions
* necessary conditions
** = without which something is not true
** = without which something is not true
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*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male
*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male


=== normalcy bias ===
=== No real Scotsman fallacy ===
 
* also called "No true Scotsman fallacy"
* a logical fallacy of "universal generalization"
* the fallacy makes a universal claim, then improperly excludes any counter-examples
* the "no real Scotsman" fallacy works as such:
 
A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
B: "My uncle Angus is Scottish, and he does."
A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
 
=== Normalcy bias ===


* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
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** to develop logical thought
** to develop logical thought
*** see also sufficiency in logic
*** see also sufficiency in logic
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012)
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012
 
=== Post hoc fallacy ===
 
* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy
 
* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second
 
=== Regression to the mean ===
 
* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
** the reason observations of extremes are not likely to be repeated, thus averages prevail ("the mean")
* in social sciences, indicates that change can't happen forever
** i.e., exceptional events, persons or places, positive or negative, will likely subside or return to what was previously normal
** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail
** we see this in terms of cycles: economic, political, social
* in economics, regression to the mean
 
* in late 1800s, Francis Galton argued that
** extreme characteristics of an individual are not passed entirely to offspring
*** so offspring tend to have one or another of either parent's characteristics, but not all of them
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"
 
=== Regression fallacy ===
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
* = observations or predictions that include extremes or outliers (beyond the normal range) and ignore the law of regression to the mean that would otherwise indicate that those extremes and outliers are just that and not indicative of the mean (average)
** an interesting application of this idea is seen in positive and negative reinforcement
*** positive reinforcement may incorrectly praise an extreme or outlier, thus subsequent behaviors may fail to replicate what was being praised
*** this dynamic can explain why people may feel great about some outcome yet fail to repeat it subsequently
**** they expect that same extreme/outlier without realizing that outcomes will likely "regress to the mean"
 
=== Sunk cost fallacy ===
* "sunk cost" is an economics term for a transaction or financial cost that can no longer be recovered
** i.e., it is "sunk"
* the "sunk cost fallacy" is that because a cost has been incurrent but not recovered, more investment is required to make it back
** also known as "throwing good money after bad"
* the sunk cost fallacy results from an emotional response to a bad situation
** in which it would be irrational to continue to incur additional costs
* the opposite response to the sunk cost fallacy is "cutting one's losses" and moving on
* in non-financial analysis, especially historical, the sunk cost fallacy occurs when actors "double down" on a bad decision or situation
** doubling down has frequently occurred in politics and warfare
* an example of the Sunk cost fallacy was the "Concorde fallacy"
** the British and French governments decided to keep spending money on the supersonic Concorde airliner despite having already lost huge amounts of money on it
* related to Loss Aversion


=== Sutton's law ===
=== Sutton's law ===
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* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy ===
* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate
** related to
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy''


=== Zebra rule ===
=== Zebra rule ===
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** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
*
== Logical fallacies and tricks ==
* begging the question
* broken leg fallacy
** presents a solution for a problem caused by that or a related solution
** i.e, break the leg, then offer to fix it
* confusing credentials for evidence
** i.e., "98% of dentists recommend flossing"
*** does not provide evidence for the benefits of flossing, just that supposed experts say so
* fallacy of relevance
* ''ignoratio elenchi'' an argument that misses the point
* non sequitur
** " Humpty Dumptying" or "Humpty Dumptyisms":
** = an "arbitrary redefinition" like that used by Humpty Dumpty in "Alice in Wonderland"
** who tells Alice, "“When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
* red herring
* strawman fallacy
** = the target of an argument (the "strawman") has nothing to do with the actual argument
* either-or fallacy
** incorrectly argues only two options or possibilities
* see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies


=== Kafka Trap ===
=== Kafka Trap ===
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** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
* steps to become a virtuous person:
* steps to become a virtuous person:
** 1. practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
*# practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
** 2. righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
*# righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
** 3. good character leads to ''eudaimonia''  
*# good character leads to ''eudaimonia''
* classes (types) of virtue/ non-virtue people
*# knows right, does right, does not yield to temptation
*# knows right, does right, but has to fight temptation
*# knows right, falls to temptation thus does not do right
*# knows right, deliberately does wrong
*## the worst of these deliberately imposes or leads others to do wrong
 
=== ethical or moral dilemma ===
 
* dilemma =
** a situation that has dichotomous (or contrary) negative outcomes
** i.e., "no good choices"
* see below for ethical lies
* ethical dilemma =
** a situation that presents or causes conflicting ethical requirements
*** "requirement" means a required ethical response or choice
*** i.e., if chosen or acted upon, it would be unethical
* conflict of interest
** present ethical challenges
** have degrees of severity
*** such as the ethical requirement to follow a law against, say, trespassing
*** but such trespassing is required in order to save a life
 
=== lying ===
* lying happens all the time
* we might think of ethical degrees of lies
** some lies may be justified, as in acting a character in a play or telling a joke
** other lies have severe consequence
** any lie that deprives another from the truth, possible benefit, or causes harm is unethical
*** unless that lie avoids an even worse consequence upon either party
 
==== types of lies ====
* bold-faced lie
** flat-out lie told as if the absolute truth
* b.s.
** a lie that is obvious and exaggeration
* broken promise
** a promise made with no intention of carrying it out
* cheating
** cheating is a lot of things, but it is fundamentally a lie
* deception
* defamation
** lies with intent to "defame" or harm a person's reputation
* disinformation
** lies targeted at an audience to shape a belief, usually in politics or politically-tainted news reporting
* exaggeration
** also called "puffery" for trying to be bigger than you really are
* false dilemma
** a lie of omission in that it hides options or conditions that exist
** ex. "you either hate me or love me"
* fake news
** lies in news reporting with intent to hide or cover up something true
* fraud
** deliberate deceit in order to make or defraud someone of money
* half truth
** a lie of omission, in that the intent of the lie is to create a false impression by withholding contrary evidence
* ''little white lies''
** seemingly inconsequential lies that cumulatively create a larger or ongoing deception
* misleading statements
** contains a truth but is designed to deceive
* plagiarism
** claiming as one's own what belongs or comes from someone else
* rumors
** also called "fabrication"
* ''slip of the tongue''
** an unintentional lie
** also called "misspeaking"
*** misspeaking becomes a lie when it is used intentionally to deceive or harm
** telling something without certainty of its truefullness
* story-telling
* white lie
** a lie that produces a positive outcome
** see below for lies and situational ethics
* sources:
* [https://www.thehopeline.com/different-kinds-of-lies-you-tell/ Eight Types of Lies that People Tell - TheHopeLine]
* [[wikipedia:Lie|Lie - Wikipedia]]


=== ethical dilemmas ===
==== lies and situational ethics: life-threatening dilemma ====


==== the "Trolley problem" ====
* lying may be ethical if used to
** avoid severe harm or save a life
*** ex., someone with clear intent to harm a resident knocks on the door, and is told that that person is not home
* an ethical lie must avoid a seriously negative outcome
** without creating a worse ultimate outcome
* ethical lies do not deprive another person from a legitimate outcome
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you
 
==== Christian thought on lying ====
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
** every lie is sinful
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====
 
* a lie that does not pretend to be a truth
** comedic effect
** entertainment
** fiction
** paternalistic lie
*** such as telling young children about Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny
** play-acting for conversation or entertainment
 
==== "Trolley problem" ====
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
* scenario:
* scenario:
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</pre></div>
</pre></div>


==Standards/ Standardization==
=== standard meaning ===
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
** etymology (word origin):
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
* '''standardize''' (verb)
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement
=== purpose of standardization ===
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
** especially across large distances
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"
* forms of standardization include:0
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
* effects of standardization include:
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization
=== law ===
=== money ===
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)
notes to do:
* money & trade
** trade =
*** geography
*** movement
*** scarcity/surplus
*** technology
*** technological and cultural diffusion
==== history of money ====
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
* money must be:
** '''scarce'''
*** too much money reduces its value
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
** '''transportable'''
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
** '''authentic'''
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
** '''trusted'''
*** government sanction
** '''permanent'''
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
* early non-coinage forms of money:
** sea shells
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
** cattle
** crops/ herbs/ spices
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
** gems, gold, rare minerals
*** measured by weight
* modern period money forms:
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
=== history of Coinage===
* starts with the “touchstone”
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)
>> to do:
Phoenicians: created currency
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
=== weights and measures ===
=== writing ===
> create new page for writing
* power of writing
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>
and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>
* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
</pre>


==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
* deatils
* sources:


==Other==
== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==
 
=== Features of Civilization ===
 
 
== Historical sources & methods ==
* tools and techniques to study history
 
=== types of historical evidence ===
* archeological evidence:
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA) 
** carbon-material for dating
 
 
=== primary source ===
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
* eye-witness testimony
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
** diaries
** personal letters
*** court testimony
** oral history
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
* other original documents, including:
** official papers
** newspapers
 
=== secondary source ===
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
** could be contemporaneous or historical
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event
 
 
==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====
* '''OPVL'''
** '''O'''rigin
** '''P'''urpose
** '''V'''alue
** '''L'''imitation
 
* '''HAPP-y'''
** '''H'''istorical context
** '''A'''udience
** '''P'''urpose
** '''P'''oint of view
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete
 
==Historiography==
= the study of how history is studied
=== Historiographic schools ===
 
=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
* confirmation bias
** see Confirmation bias
* editorial bias
* hagiography
** biography that idealizes the subject
** from Greek for writing about saints
* political bias
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
** although it could have bias in the work
* see Historiography section
 
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
>> to do


=== Celebration Parallax ===


== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==
* parallax = different views from different vantage points of the same object
** see Theory of Errors
* conceived by journalist Michael Anton, who defines the celebration parallax as
** "“the same fact pattern is either true and glorious or false and scurrilous depending on who states it.”
*** see [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]
*** Anton coined the term to criticize the disingenuity of 2010s politics and political statements that frequently denied unpopular policies but "celebrated" their imposition regardless of their popularity
* more plainly stated as the phenomenon of when an observer or public speaker denies the existence of something, then goes on to state that, "while it is not happening (or true), it's a good thing that it is"
* see also the "Law of Merited Impossibility"


=== Confirmation bias ===
=== Confirmation bias ===
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* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see
=== Crab mentality ===
* also called "crabs in a bucket" effect or mentality
* when groups or individuals prefer to deny to others something they do not or cannot have
** out of jeaousy or resentment
* expressed as: "If I can't have it, neither can you"
* see also the "Tall Poppy Syndrome"
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
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* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions
=== Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) ===
[[File:Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking.jpg|thumb|Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking. Peripheral Route is to the left ("biased") and Central Route to the right ("ojbective")]]
* identifies the association between persuasion and bias
* "elaboration" means the extent to which a person engages in objective mental processing before making a decision or adopting a point of view
* ELM shows that much persuasion is driven by perceptions of status
** i.e. high or low status perceptions drive people's attitudes towards persuasion
* ELM identifies two paths to persuasion or "attitude change":
*# high-elaboration likelihood, called "Central Route" = motivated to engage the argument with critical thought open to evidence
*# low-elaboration likelihood, called "Peripheral Route" = external cues or influences are present that shape reception to the argument without critical thought
* the "Central Route" requires intellectual honesty and engagement
* the "Peripheral Route" engages biases and emotional states and yields little critical thought
** related to confirmation bias and [[logical fallacy]]
* the "Route" taken at any given time is related to a person's self-perceived social status or that of the source of the argument or information (or persuation)
** that is, people process arguments or new information according to their perception of the source of that argument or information
** also called "prestige bias"
* "Motivation" strongly impacts the "Route" taken by the recipient of the information/ persuasion (i.e., decision-maker)
** motivation = conditions, desires, perspectives, or states of mind that influence a decision
** thus motivation may engage biases and thus the "Peripheral Route"
* see
** [[wikipedia:Elaboration_likelihood_model|Elaboration likelihood model - Wikipedia]]
** [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People]
*** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/after-service/202105/do-the-most-educated-people-look-down-everyone-else Do the Most Educated People Look Down on Everyone Else? | Psychology Today]
=== Entropy ===
* "entropy" is the 2nd Newtonian Law of physics that energy will move from high to low systems
** i.e., a something hot will transfer its heat to something colder
* in Social Sciences, entropy indicates that systems will tend to decline over time\
** related to ''Thucydides Trap'' and ''Stein's Law''


=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
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*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
*** which motivated them to work harder
*** which motivated them to work harder
* Hawthorne effects may change observational data
** called "clinical trial effect", in drug or medical testing, some patients may respond to the attention they receive from providers and not necessarily the drug or procedure being measured
*** "placebo effects" are positive results in control patients (those who do not receive the drug or procedure)
**** placebo effects are a "reactivity" phenomenon by which the patient changes attitude, behavior or undergo a subconscious reaction to a situation that changes the patient's outcomes
* related to:
** "Turing paradox" by which the act of measurement changes the physical properties of what is being measured (applies to subatomic quantum systems)
** Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure".


=== Illusion of truth paradox ===
=== Illusion of truth paradox ===


* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
=== Inventor's paradox ===
* from mathematician George Pólya in "[[wikipedia:How_to_Solve_It|How to Solve It]]":
** a phenomenon by which a solution to a particular problem is found by seeking a solution to another, more general problem
*** and that investigation to the general problem yields a solution to the particular problem that was previously unapparent
* the idea is to look beyond the immediate problem to a larger generality, then apply it backwards to the particular
* in mathematics
** to add all the numbers from 1-99 would be difficult to do in one's head
** so, instead of thinking through 1+2=3, +4 = 7, +5 = 12, + 6 = 18
** we can "generalize" to adding numbers that add up to 100, as in
*** 1+99 = 100, 2+98 = 200, 3+97= 100
*** we can then assume that there will be 49 such pairs of numbers, which = 4,900 (49 x 100)
*** these pairs leave the number 50, so we have to add 50: 4,900 + 50 = 4,950
** see [[wikipedia:Inventor's_paradox|Inventor's paradox - Wikipedia]]
* the less mathematically inclined might call it the "Lost Keys Paradox"
=== Law of Merited Impossibility ===
* a statement that denies the existence or possibility of something, but then condemns those who oppose it
** used to denigrate those of an opposing position
** i.e., “That will ''never'' happen, and when it does, boy will you deserve it.”
*** see Michael Anton's "Celebration Parallax" above or [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]
=== Lost keys paradox ===
* the [[lost keys paradox]] is that when looking for where you put the keys, you will only find them when you go looking for something else, such as your glasses, or  your phone
* a possible explanation for the Lost Keys Paradox is that our focus of attention can be limited to a particular goal or activity, which, blinds us to alternative solutions
** thus it is a form of confirmation bias
* when freed of the bias of seeking one particular thing, we are more likely to discover the unexpected solution that we could not see while focused solely on that one thing
* coined by [[User:Bromley|Michael Bromley]]


=== Mediocrity paradox ===
=== Mediocrity paradox ===
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* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency
* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency


=== Munchausen syndrome ===
* named for the fictional character Baron Munchausen, an absurd adventurer who recounted ridiculous stories, such as riding on a cannonball, with objectivity and detachment
* = a "factititious disorder" in which a person tells exaggerated or dramatic stories with the intent to impress or deceive
* the Munchausen syndrome is also used to express "circular logic," as in the story of Munchausen saving himself from drowning by pulling himself out of the water by his own hair
* see entry for [[Baron von Munchausen]]
* in psychology, the "Munchausen Syndrome" is a serious mental health condition in which the patient imagines or feigns illness, injury or other trauma in order to draw attention or garner sympathy
** = similar but not the same as
*** ''hypochondria'', the condition of thinking that one has or hyper-concern about having a disease or medical condition that does not exist
**** thus the joke that, "even hypochondriacs get sick sometimes"
*** ''psychosomatic illness'', an actual illness that has no percievable physical cause or underlying condition
***
=== Narrative Fallacy ===
=== Narrative Fallacy ===


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** thus the paradox that we accept as true something reported that we know little about, all the while knowing that an expert on or direct witness to that news would know it is inaccurate.  
** thus the paradox that we accept as true something reported that we know little about, all the while knowing that an expert on or direct witness to that news would know it is inaccurate.  
* from Michael Bromley
* from Michael Bromley
=== Noble savage fallacy ===
* also "Noble savage myth"
* = the false assumption that human nature is good and society is bad
* based on the false premise that pre-civilization, humans lived in harmony and peace
** the noble savage fallacy assumes that any negative outcome following rise of civilization is due to that rise
** = an inverted ''Post hoc fallacy'', which assumes cause from chronology
*** ''Post hoc fallacy'' = if ''x'' came before ''y'', then ''x'' is the cause of ''y''
** this fallacy assumes:
*** ''x'' = pre-civilization
*** ''y'' = post civilization
*** ''z'' = a negative outcome
** and states that
*** if ''z'' exists after ''y'', then ''y'' caused it
*** and since ''z'' did not exist under ''x'', then ''x'' is superior to ''y''
** it is obvious that negative consequences of civilization could not have existed prior to civilization
** but it is a logical fallacy to assume that pre-civilization was problem-free or did not have its own negative outcomes
** it is also a logical fallacy to assume that negative outcomes of civilization negate civilization's positive outcomes


=== Peter principle ===
=== Peter principle ===
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*** the observation is largely accurate that people will be promoted to higher levels until they are no longer able to demonstrate competency at some level, and will therefore not be promoted again
*** the observation is largely accurate that people will be promoted to higher levels until they are no longer able to demonstrate competency at some level, and will therefore not be promoted again
* the Peter Principle may help explain why historical actors rise and then become mediocre at their pinnacle
* the Peter Principle may help explain why historical actors rise and then become mediocre at their pinnacle
=== Political Framing ===
* a political message, policy, position, perspective or statement that is shaped and ultimately derived from that political point of view
* the "frame" is the perspective which shapes the content of the "picture", i.e. the topic, subject, or position
* the goal of the "frame" is to shape audience understanding by through emphasis and deemphasis of various elements of a topic
** i.e., if the topic is health care, the "frame" could be one the emphasizes cost, which deemphasizing quality
** the "frame" guides the audience to that "point of view"
* also called '''"spinning"''', which is to "spin" or redirect a negative into a positive
=== Prestige bias / Prestige paradox ===
* also called "myside bias" (a form of confirmation bias)
* the idea that perceptions of status drive people's attitudes and decision making
* it is a "paradox" is because people with self-perceived "high status" are less likely to think objectively (without bias)
** because "high status" people are "preoccupied with how others perceive them"
* see [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People] 
** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]


=== Rorschach test ===
=== Rorschach test ===
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* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
** so one must be careful in its application
** so one must be careful in its application
=== Seven is the most selected number ===
* 7 is the number most frequently chosen by people when asked to select a number between 1 and 9
** see [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232582800_Predominance_of_seven_and_the_apparent_spontaneity_of_numerical_choices |  The Predominance of Seven and the Apparent Spontaneity of Numerical Choice]
* 7 is considered lucky or holy in many cultures and religions
** "lucky seven"
** in Vietnam, 7 is an unlucky number
=== Smarter than the Average bias ===
* the bias of the more than half of people who believe they are smarter than the average person
** see [https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0200103 65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence]
* = a form of confirmation bias
** in which people compare themselves to only their own surroundings
** it is possible for a person to be smarter than most of those around them, yet less smart than the average
** it is equally possible for a person to be less smart then those around them, yet smarter than the average
** this same type of bias is why Americans frequently under- or over-estimate the percentage ethnic breakdown of U.S. demographics
*** they frequently think that their own race is more dominant than it is
*** or that a race that has a larger presence in their lives (surroundings, media, etc.) than it actually has
=== Streisand effect ===
* a form of "psychological reactance" by which people become interested in something only after they are told they are not allowed to know about it
** = an unintended consequence of censorship
* called the "Streisand" effect because, when the singer/actor Barbara Streisand threatened to sue a photographer for publishing an aerial photo of her house in California.
** the lawsuit generated publicity, and people became interested in seeing Streisand's house because of it
*** when they before the lawsuit had no interest in it at all
* similar to the "Howard Stern effect" , which is the phenomenon of celebrities who attracts an audience from people who hate them more than of those who like them
** named for "shock jock" Howard Stern, a radio personality, who specializes in offensive, rude, or shocking content
=== Tall poppy syndrome ===
* criticism, scrutiny, resentment and even legal recourse against successful people
* i.e., the "tall poppy" gets cut down because it is higher than the rest
* related to "Law of Jante"
** a social code (tradition, more, informal rule) in Denmark that disapproves of expressions of individuality or personal success
* egalitarian tribal culture also dislikes stand-outs
** some tribes will assault anyone who brags or shows off
** the idea is that an individual who is or acts better than others endangers tribal coherence and is a threat to take over the tribe
* see also "crab mentality"
=== Theory of errors ===
* also called "observational errors"
* the rule that given an accumulation of even erroneous observations, the mean or average of all observations will generally yield a correct observation
* in statistics, it is called "Propagation of uncertainty", and it is used to
** used famously to identify the correct location of a moon of Saturn by taking the average of a series of incorrect observations, which yielded the precise location of the moon
* theory of errors is similar to "wisdom of the crowd", a phenomenon that affirms that the average opinion or action of a crowd is likely the correct one
** a test of the wisdom of the crowd would be to ask random people the number bubble gum balls in a jar.
*** individuals guesses will be incorrect
*** but the average of all guesses will yield a close or proximate answer


=== Other/ todo ===
=== Other/ todo ===
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* attribution to experts fallacy
* attribution to experts fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
* wisdom of the crowd
*
== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
=== Glasl's model of conflict escalation ===
[[File:Glasl's Model of Conflict Escalation.svg|thumb|Glasl's "Nine stages of conflict escalation"|385x385px]]
* when analyzing conflict, diplomacy, events, etc. students may employ the conceptual framework of "conflict escalation" by Friedrich Glasl ([[wikipedia:Friedrich_Glasl's_model_of_conflict_escalation|here from wikipedia]])
* Glasl's model divides disagreement or conflict scenarios into "stages" based upon three core outcomes:
** win-win
*** both sides benefit
** win-lose
*** one side benefits, the other loses
** lose-lose
*** conflict w/ bad outcomes for one or both parties
* conflicts escalate through and into:
** tension and dispute
** debate
** communication loss
** coalition building (seeking sympathy or help from others)
** denunciation
** loss of face (pride)
** threats and feelings of threat
** depersonalization (treating the other as not human)
** attack, annihilation, defeat
* deescalation includes:
** mediation from third-party (intercession, intermediation)
** process guidance
** arbitration, legal actions
** forcible intervention, especially from higher power
* Glasl's model works at the individual (a family fight) or global level (international affairs)
=== Graham's hierarchy of disagreement ===
[[File:Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement-en.svg|thumb|Graham's hierarchy of disagreement]]
* tech entrepreneur Paul Graham in 2008 proposed a model for levels (hierarchies) of disagreement
* the top of the hierarchy is refutation of the "central point"
** i.e., that the opposing idea is fundamentally "refuted"
*** via logic, demonstration, evidence, etc.
* the bottom of the hierarchy is "Name-calling", which leads to no resolution and further anger or dispute
* key points in the negative side of the hierarchy are essentially [[Logical fallacy|logical fallacies]]:
** name-calling (ad hominem) and
** criticism of tone or attitude rather than substance ("responding to tone")
** contractions without evidence
* on the constructive side are
** strong argument via reason, logic, evidence
** refutation: proof
=== Overton Window ===
* [[File:Overton Window diagram.svg|thumb|An illustration of the Overton window, along with Treviño's degrees of acceptance]]Joseph Overton observed that along the spectrum of social or political thought, policy, or opinion
** there exists a mainstream "middle" of consensus
*** that middle may have variances, but most people generally agree with it
** with extremes on both sides that are not generally accepted
** however, as one extreme or the other becomes acceptable, they enter into the "Overton Window"
** example:
*** in the 1950s, rock music was considered anti-social, thus lay outside of the Overton Window
*** as its popularity grew, especially following Elvis Presley, rock music became popular music
**** and thus, entered the Overton Window
* in the Overton Window, "Policy" should reflect a consensus of points of view within the window, and will move according to changes within that window
** so, while "Policy" may not always reflect the middle of the Window, it acts to reflect changes in the window.


== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
=== regression to the mean ===
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
* Social Scientist Max Weber attributed the economic success of U.S. and northwestern European nations to their dominant "Protestant work ethic"
* based on
** individualism and notions of self-sufficiency
** ethics of hard work, timeliness, frugality, etc.
*** that cumulatively yielded productive economies and a dominant middle class
* note that Weber's seen today by "critical race" theorists as elements of "white privilege"


==External Resources==
==External Resources==
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* see also [https://school4schools.com/wiki/index.php?title=Geography_fun_facts_%26_oddities#Geography_jokes Geography jokes (s4s wiki)]
* see also [https://school4schools.com/wiki/index.php?title=Geography_fun_facts_%26_oddities#Geography_jokes Geography jokes (s4s wiki)]
=== Jokes about historians ===


=== Historical jokes ===
Four historians walk into a bar....
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
They sit down and order a beer. As he serves, them the bartender asks the first one his name and what he does for a living. "I'm Victor. I'm an historian. I study proto-Natufian semi-nomadic culture." Impressed, the bartender looks at another one. "You a historian, too? What's your name?" The second replies, "My name is Victor. I'm an historian of colonial North America." "Cool," says the bartender, and, looking at the other two, says, "And you two?" "Me, I'm Victor." replies the third. "I'm an expert on the Cold War. And this guy next to me is Victor. He's an historian of medieval feudal agrarian economics."


>> to do jokes from across history
"Amazing!" exclaims the bartender. "History really is written by you guys!"
</div>
 
How many historians does it take to change a lightbulb?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
There is a great deal of debate on this issue. Up until the mid-20th century, the accepted answer was ‘one’: and this Whiggish narrative underpinned a number of works that celebrated electrification and the march of progress in light-bulb changing. Beginning in the 1960s, however, social historians increasingly rejected the ‘Great Man’ school and produced revisionist narratives that stressed the contributions of research assistants and custodial staff. This new consensus was challenged, in turn, by women’s historians, who criticized the social interpretation for marginalizing women, and who argued that light bulbs are actually changed by department secretaries. Since the 1980s, however, postmodernist scholars have deconstructed what they characterize as a repressive hegemonic discourse of light-bulb changing, with its implicit binary opposition between ‘light’ and ‘darkness,’ and its phallogocentric privileging of the bulb over the socket, which they see as colonialist, sexist, and racist. Finally, a new generation of neo-conservative historians have concluded that the light never needed changing in the first place, and have praised political leaders like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher for bringing back the old bulb. Clearly, much additional research remains to be done.
- from the web
</div>


=== History jokes ===
=== History jokes ===


* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
==== Ancient history jokes ====
* What did ancient Mesopotamians wear to work?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
* '''''Their cuneiform'''''
</div>
</div>


* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
* Why was the pharaoh so handsome?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
* '''''Because he took after his dad, not his mummy'''''
</div>
</div>


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* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
</div>
</div>
* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
</div>
==== Europe jokes ====
* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
</div>
* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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</div>
</div>


* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?
==== Roman jokes ====
** click EXPAND for the answer:
 
* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''Plymouth Rock'''''
* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
</div>
</div>


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</div>
</div>


I don't like how the months don't line up with their number, like September, October, November, December.
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''Whoever did that should really be stabbed.'''''
</div>
==== Viking jokes ====
* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* '''''By Norse Code'''''
* '''''By Norse Code'''''
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* Did you know that Vikings discovered the formula for the area of a circle?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Area = π × rrrrrrrrr²'''''
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* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
==== Pilgrim jokes ====
* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?  
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
* '''''Plymouth Rock'''''
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==== World War I & II jokes ====
* Why was WWI so quick?  
* Why was WWI so quick?  
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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=== Soviet Union jokes ===
=== Soviet Union era jokes ===


* A man in the Soviet Union saved up his money to buy a car. He went to the dealer and ordered the only car available.  
* A man in the Soviet Union saved up his money to buy a car. He went to the dealer and ordered the only car available.  
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