Drake Equation: Difference between revisions

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from [[wikipedia:Drake_equation#Equation|Drake Equation (wikipedia)]]</blockquote>
from [[wikipedia:Drake_equation#Equation|Drake Equation (wikipedia)]]</blockquote>


* Drakes estimates: <blockquote>
* Drake's estimate:
* ''R''<sub>∗</sub> = 1 yr<sup>−1</sup> (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
<blockquote>'''''R''<sub>∗</sub>''' = 1 yr<sup>−1</sup> (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
* ''f''<sub>p</sub> = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
 
* ''n''<sub>e</sub> = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
'''''f''<sub>p</sub>''' = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
* ''f''<sub>l</sub> = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
 
* ''f''<sub>i</sub> = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
'''''n''<sub>e</sub>''' = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
* ''f''<sub>c</sub> = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
 
* ''L'' = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years) </blockquote><blockquote>= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy</blockquote>
'''''f''<sub>l</sub>''' = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
 
'''''f''<sub>i</sub>''' = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
 
'''''f''<sub>c</sub>''' = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
 
'''''L''''' = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
 
= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy</blockquote>
 
* [[wikipedia:Fermi_paradox|Fermi paradox]]
** in 1950, physicist Enrico Fermi casually thought up the paradox that, if extraterrestrial life is so probable (likely), then we would have encountered it by now
*** "But where is everybody?" Fermi asked
* a 2018 paper called, "[https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 Dissolving the Fermi Paradox]" concluded that the probability of intelligent life outside of earth is unlikely
** the authors incorporated additional models of chemical and genetic transitions into life
*** thus we should not be surprised by Fermi's conclusion, "But where is everybody?"
 
</blockquote>


[[Category:Cool stuff]]
[[Category:Cool stuff]]