4,993
edits
Social Studies skills: Difference between revisions
m
→Certainty v. Uncertainty
m (→Motive) |
|||
| Line 567: | Line 567: | ||
* humans fear the unknown | * humans fear the unknown | ||
* humans yearn for predictability | * humans yearn for predictability | ||
* | * | ||
* | |||
=== Known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns === | |||
* During the Iraq War, US Secretary of War Donald Rumsfeld famously explained to the press that it's not the "known knowns" or even the "known unknowns" that worry him, it's the "unknown unknowns" that he's worried about | |||
* humans hate uncertainty, and so plan for "contingencies" (possibilities) and structure their societies and lives around "mitigating" uncertainty | |||
** ex. building dikes in case of flooding, or aqueducts in case of drought | |||
* however, they cannot plan for what they do not expect | |||
==== "Absence of evidence is not evidence" ==== | |||
* the 19<sup>th</sup> century historian William Wright first coined the expression, “Absence of evidence is not evidence,” | |||
* 20th century scientist Carl Sagan turned the expression more fully into "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." | |||
==== "black swan" events ==== | |||
* black swan events are unforeseen events that come without warning and without general observation of their approach | |||
* black swan events may include economic collapse (2007 mortgage crisis) or sudden war | |||
* as well as non-man controlled events such as meteors, volcanoes, and major weather events | |||
==== Thomas Hobbes' "Leviathan" for analysis of human fear of uncertainty ==== | |||
Click EXPAND for excerpts from ''Leviathan'' on uncertainty: | Click EXPAND for excerpts from ''Leviathan'' on uncertainty: | ||
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"> | <div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed"> | ||