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* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise | * fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise | ||
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it | * the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it | ||
=== Framing effect === | |||
* the 'effect" or phenomenon that people will select an option based upon how it is "framed" in positive or negative terms | |||
* the framing effect occurs when the options are of equal value (are the same), even if presented in oppositive terms | |||
** the difference is in how it is presented or perceived by the decision maker | |||
* examples: | |||
** 33% survive v. 66% die | |||
*** A) given this choice, 33% of people will be saved; versus | |||
*** B) given this choice, 66% of people will die | |||
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because it focuses on lives" saved" versus "people who will die" | |||
**** even though both outcomes are the same (33% saved = 66% die) | |||
** an event has a late registration fee | |||
*** option A) the late registration fee is highlighted on top of the regular cost of registration | |||
*** option B) regular registration is treated as a discount from the total cost of late registration | |||
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because they want to avoid the perceived additional cost | |||
**** even though the early registration for A) is the same as for B) | |||
** an opinion poll asks for support of a policy, with emphasis on either its positive or negative impact | |||
*** A) 100,000 people will get jobs, while only 10,000 unemployed will result | |||
*** B) 10,000 people will lose jobs, while only 100,000 people will find employment | |||
**** respondents prefer A) due to its positive emphasis on jobs gained | |||
**** even though the net jobs gained or lost are the same | |||
=== Gambler's fallacy === | === Gambler's fallacy === |