Drake Equation

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The Drake Equation is a probability (possibility) measurement of the existence of extraterrestrial life

  • formulated in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake

N = R* • ƒp • ne • ƒ1 • ƒi • ƒc • L

R* = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy

ƒp = the fraction of those stars that have planets

ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

ƒ1 = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point

ƒi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)

ƒc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

from Drake Equation (wikipedia)

  • Drakes estimates:
  • R = 1 yr−1 (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
  • fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
  • ne = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
  • fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
  • fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
  • fc = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
  • L = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)

    = between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy