Drake Equation
The Drake Equation is a probability (possibility) measurement of the existence of extraterrestrial life
- formulated in 1961 by Dr. Frank Drake
N = R* • ƒp • ne • ƒ1 • ƒi • ƒc • L
R* = the average rate of star formation in our Galaxy
ƒp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
ƒ1 = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
ƒi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
ƒc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
- Drakes estimates:
- R∗ = 1 yr−1 (1 star formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy; this was regarded as conservative)
- fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets)
- ne = 1 to 5 (stars with planets will have between 1 and 5 planets capable of developing life)
- fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
- fi = 1 (100% of which will develop intelligent life)
- fc = 0.1 to 0.2 (10–20% of which will be able to communicate)
- L = 1000 to 100,000,000 communicative civilizations (which will last somewhere between 1000 and 100,000,000 years)
= between 1000 and 100,000,000 planets with civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy