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=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
=== Why the cat died last night: an exercise in causality ===
>> to do
>> to do
=== butterfly effect ===
> small effects that lead to larger events
>> to do: George Washington sparking the French-Indian War
=== Goldilocks principle ===
* like Goldilocks who found the right bowl of porridge and bed to sleep on,
** the "just right amount" is the "Goldilocks Principle"
** = the sufficient (needed and perfect) conditions for something to happen
* ex.
** habitable planets require a perfect set of conditions to support life, which only earth presents
*** see the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
** in economics, the Goldilocks economy is one in which economic inputs (trends/ happenings) are in balance and the economy is stable (very rare)


==Contingency==
==Contingency==
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=== Dictators paradox ===
=== Dictators paradox ===


* from Presidnt Herbert Hoover  
* from President Herbert Hoover (1927-1931):
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
** "It is a paradox that every dictator has climbed to power on the ladder of free speech. Immediately on attaining power each dictator has suppressed all free speech except his own."
* the idea that  
* the idea that  
Line 373: Line 386:
** even a totalitarian society may allow for family units which govern themselves or religious freedoms
** even a totalitarian society may allow for family units which govern themselves or religious freedoms
* see "Social Organization" above
* see "Social Organization" above
=== political dissent ===
* those disenfranchised by disparate distributions of power may seek alternative forms of expressing dissent or confronting larger powers
==== asymmetric warfare ====
==== Heckler's veto ====
* disruptions of events and political advocacy deliberately intended to shut them down
** ex. A threat is called in to an arena where a speech is to take place, and the venue is shut down, resulting in a "veto" of that speech, as it was not given as a result of the threat


=== Revolution paradox ===
=== Revolution paradox ===
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=== Economic disparity ===
=== Economic disparity ===


* >> to do Gini Coeficient
* a measure of disparities in income distribution across an economic unit or country
* Thomas Picketty
** i.e., the extent to which income is distributed equally or unequally
** ex. high economic dispary means that a small percentage of a country controls a high percentage of that country's assets or economic activity
* see [[wikipedia:Gini_coefficient|Gini coefficient - Wikipedia]]
* see Thomas Picketty / todo
* problems include
** while a certain segment of a population may control a significant portion of assets, it may not also constitute a disproportionate amount of economic activity
** government dispersals of or redistribution of income may hide underlying economic disparities in standards of living, purchasing power, etc.


==Order & Chaos==
==Order & Chaos==
Line 667: Line 697:
* see [[Leadership]] entry
* see [[Leadership]] entry


== Economics ==
==Standards/ Standardization==
=== standard meaning ===
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
** etymology (word origin):
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
* '''standardize''' (verb)
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement


=== Comparative Advantage===
=== purpose of standardization ===
* Definition: A particular economic advantage, resource or ability a country possesses over either its own other economic situations or those of another country.
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
* the term "comparative advantage" was
** especially across large distances
* origin of the idea:
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"  
** late 1700s Scottish philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790)
* forms of standardization include:0
click EXPAND for Adam Smith quotation on "absolute advantage":
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
* effects of standardization include:
<pre>''If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it off them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage. The general industry of the country, being always in proportion to the capital which employs it, will not thereby be diminished ... but only left to find out the way in which it can be employed with the greatest advantage.'' (Book IV, Section ii, 12)</pre> </div>
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** Comparative advantage means concentrating on what your country is good at making/doing in order to get what other countries are better at making/doing."
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization


** early 19th century British economist David Ricardo (1772-1823):
=== law ===
*** argued for specialization as basis for national wealth and increased trade
=== money ===
*** = laissez-faire, free-trade
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)  
*** related comparative advantage to the concept of "opportunity cost"
notes to do:
**** i.e. what is lost by ''not'' engaging in an activity
* money & trade
**** Ricardo argued that it would be more costly to for country A to attempt to produce something that country B can more efficiently create than to focus on what that country A itself does better (its comparative advantage) and simply purchase the other goods from country B
** trade =
**** and by doing so, both country A and B will benefit from the trade
*** geography
click EXPAND for David Ricardo's quotation on comparative advantage:
*** movement
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
*** scarcity/surplus
<pre>it would undoubtedly be advantageous to the capitalists [and consumers] of England… [that] the wine and cloth should both be made in Portugal [and that] the capital and labour of England employed in making cloth should be removed to Portugal for that purpose.</pre></div>
*** technology
** British colonizer of Australia and economist Robert Torrens independently developed the idea of comparative advantage
*** technological and cultural diffusion
click EXPAND for Robert Torrens' quotation on comparative advantage from 1808:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
<pre>''if I wish to know the extent of the advantage, which arises to England, from her giving France a hundred pounds of broadcloth, in exchange for a hundred pounds of lace, I take the quantity of lace which she has acquired by this transaction, and compare it with the quantity which she might, at the same expense of labour and capital, have acquired by manufacturing it at home. The lace that remains, beyond what the labour and capital employed on the cloth, might have fabricated at home, is the amount of the advantage which England derives from the exchange.''</pre></div>
* Examples:
*** Is it advantageous for the U.S. to import oil from Saudi Arabia or to rely only on its own oil production?
* see also
** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]


=== Economies of scale ===
==== history of money ====
* definition: lower costs of production based upon higher volume
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
** i.e., the larger the production facility, the cheaper it costs to produce any single item
* money must be:  
* economies of scale result from:
** '''scarce'''
** greater efficiency in higher production rates
*** too much money reduces its value
** greater purchasing power to lower costs of supplies and materials
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
** lower per capita labor cost per cost of unit produced
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
 
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
=== Free markets ===
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
 
** '''transportable'''
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 Milton Friedman video explaining power of free markets] (YouTube)
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
* Basquiat
** '''authentic'''
** modest proposal << to do
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
* Hayek
** '''trusted'''
** dispersed knowledge
*** government sanction
** emergent order
** '''permanent'''
* Locke
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
* Smith
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
** invisible hand
* early non-coinage forms of money:
** universities
** sea shells
*
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
** cattle
** crops/ herbs/ spices
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
** gems, gold, rare minerals
*** measured by weight
* modern period money forms:
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
=== history of Coinage===
* starts with the “touchstone”
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)


==== I Pencil ====
>> to do:
 
Phoenicians: created currency
* a parable in which a pencil describes to the narrator just how magical its creation is
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
* the pencil describes the complex processes and knowledge required for the production of a simple pencil
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
* see [https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)]
=== weights and measures ===
=== writing ===
> create new page for writing
* power of writing
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>
 
and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>
 
* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
</pre>


===Opportunity Cost===
==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
* definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
* details
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
* sources:
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
 
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
==Historical sources & methods==
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
* tools and techniques to study history
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
 
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
=== types of historical evidence ===
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
* archeological evidence:
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA)
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
** carbon-material for dating
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
=== primary source ===
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
* ''Parable of the broken window''
* eye-witness testimony
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
** diaries
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
** personal letters
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
*** court testimony
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
** oral history
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
* other original documents, including:  
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
** official papers
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
** newspapers
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
</div>
* Examples:
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* Questions:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?


=== Herbert Stein's Law ===
=== secondary source ===
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate
** could be contemporaneous or historical
** cycles
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event
** non-linear paths of events
** change
* Herbert Stein's Law may serve as a good discussion point for evaluating choices in history
** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein


=== Jevons Paradox ===
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
** also: greater efficiencies lowers cost, which increases demand
* from William Stanley Jevons who in 1865 noticed that more efficiencies in coal-power generation led to more use of coal
** see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Jevons paradox]
* interesting historical tool
** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm


=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====  
* late 20th century Economist Milton famously defined the "Four ways to spend money" (paraphrased, not original quotation):
* '''OPVL'''
# You spend your money on yourself
** '''O'''rigin
# You spend someone else's money on yourself
** '''P'''urpose
# Someone else spends their money on on you
** '''V'''alue
# Someone else spends someone else's money on someone else
** '''L'''imitation
click EXPAND to see the implications of the Four ways to spend money
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
• Table format
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 50%;"
! Whose money is spent by whom
! Money is spent on whom
! Efficiency of Outcome
|-
| style="width: 30%"| '''You spend your money...''' || '''on yourself'''  
||
* seek highest value
* with lowest cost
* = maximum efficiency
|-
|-
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
||
* seek highest value
* no concern for cost
* = lower efficiency
|-
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''  
||
* seek lowest cost
* no concern for quality
* = lower efficiency


|-
* '''HAPP-y'''
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''  
** '''H'''istorical context
||
** '''A'''udience
* no concern for cost
** '''P'''urpose
* no concern for quality
** '''P'''oint of view
* = lowest efficiency
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete
|-
| ||
|-
|}
</div>


=== Pareto Principle ===
==Historiography==
= the study of how history is studied
=== Historiographic schools ===  


* also known as the "80/20 rule" or "law of the vital few"
=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
* = the idea that 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
* confirmation bias
* the early Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that
** see Confirmation bias
** in Italy 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the population
* editorial bias
* other observers have found that many natural and human systems follow this distribution pattern<br />
* hagiography
=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
** biography that idealizes the subject
* 80/20 rule (see the "Pareto Principle" above)
** from Greek for writing about saints
* diminishing returns
* political bias
* emergent order
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
** although it could have bias in the work
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
* see Historiography section
* client politics
 
* churning
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
** assets churning
>> to do
*** a form of rent seeking whereby a regulated public utility seeks replacement infrastructure solely for the purpose of generating interest income on the investment, and not for a genuine need for that infrastructure, or, worse, intentionally investing in assets or infrastructure that will require future replacement (see "planned obsolescence")
 
** brokerage churning
== Economics ==
* externalities
 
* Inflation/ deflation
=== Comparative Advantage===
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
* Definition: A particular economic advantage, resource or ability a country possesses over either its own other economic situations or those of another country.
* planned obsolescence
* the term "comparative advantage" was
** obsolescence = out of date, no longer useful or appealing
* origin of the idea:
** deliberate design for a product or asset to require replacement
** late 1700s Scottish philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790)
** practices may include, automobile or cell phone design to entire consumers to purchase based upon a new "look", fad, or feature that does not make the previous version obsolete
click EXPAND for Adam Smith quotation on "absolute advantage":
* public goods
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
* regulatory capture
<pre>''If a foreign country can supply us with a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make it, better buy it off them with some part of the produce of our own industry employed in a way in which we have some advantage. The general industry of the country, being always in proportion to the capital which employs it, will not thereby be diminished ... but only left to find out the way in which it can be employed with the greatest advantage.'' (Book IV, Section ii, 12)</pre> </div>
* rent seeking
** Comparative advantage means concentrating on what your country is good at making/doing in order to get what other countries are better at making/doing."
** using government rules or law in order to reduce competition
 
** see Frederic Bastiat's "Economic Sophisms" for a satire on candlestick makers who petitioned the government to ban the sun as an unfair competitor'
** early 19th century British economist David Ricardo (1772-1823):
***https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat#Economic_Sophisms_and_the_candlemakers'_petition
*** argued for specialization as basis for national wealth and increased trade
* regression to the mean (return to the mean)
*** = laissez-faire, free-trade
* risk mitigation
*** related comparative advantage to the concept of "opportunity cost"  
* scarcity v. surplus
**** i.e. what is lost by ''not'' engaging in an activity
* sunk cost / "sunk cost fallacy"
**** Ricardo argued that it would be more costly to for country A to attempt to produce something that country B can more efficiently create than to focus on what that country A itself does better (its comparative advantage) and simply purchase the other goods from country B
* Third-party payer effect
**** and by doing so, both country A and B will benefit from the trade
** when a third-party pays for goods or services, quality goes down and prices go up
click EXPAND for David Ricardo's quotation on comparative advantage:
** see Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
* top-down v. bottom-up
<pre>it would undoubtedly be advantageous to the capitalists [and consumers] of England… [that] the wine and cloth should both be made in Portugal [and that] the capital and labour of England employed in making cloth should be removed to Portugal for that purpose.</pre></div>
* trickle-down theory
** British colonizer of Australia and economist Robert Torrens independently developed the idea of comparative advantage
** the idea that economic benefits conferred or made available to the top of society will "trickle down" to the rest of society
click EXPAND for Robert Torrens' quotation on comparative advantage from 1808:
** has been attributed to "Reaganomics"
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed" style="width:50%">
*** but only by its critics, not its proponents
<pre>''if I wish to know the extent of the advantage, which arises to England, from her giving France a hundred pounds of broadcloth, in exchange for a hundred pounds of lace, I take the quantity of lace which she has acquired by this transaction, and compare it with the quantity which she might, at the same expense of labour and capital, have acquired by manufacturing it at home. The lace that remains, beyond what the labour and capital employed on the cloth, might have fabricated at home, is the amount of the advantage which England derives from the exchange.''</pre></div>
*** in other words, "trickle down" theory is an economic criticism and not a proposition
* Examples:
** "trickle down" theory originated in William Jennings Bryan's 1896 "Cross of God Speech"
*** Is it advantageous for the U.S. to import oil from Saudi Arabia or to rely only on its own oil production?
click EXPAND for quotation from Bryan's Cross of Gold speech that expressed "trickle down theory"
* see also
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** [https://www.cairn.info/revue-cahiers-d-economie-politique-1-2015-2-page-203.htm  The discovery of the comparative advantage theory (on James Mill, 1821)]
<pre>
 
There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them.</pre></div>
=== Desire Path ===
* [[Tragedy of the Commons]]
[[File:Desire path - 52849400711.jpg|thumb|right|A desire path between concrete sidewalks at the Ohio State University (wikipedia)]]
* zero sum transaction
* specifically: a path created by people off or outside of an established, planned path
** both sides of transaction receive equal benefit
* generally: the idea that people will more efficiently choose their methods and means of conducting day-to-day affairs better than planners
*** i.e., the buyer and the seller gain equal value
** related to Frederick Hayeks' idea of the "emergent order" created by accumulated individual decisions rather than by a collective decision
*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"


== Logic and observational fallacies ==
=== Economies of scale ===
* definition: lower costs of production based upon higher volume
** i.e., the larger the production facility, the cheaper it costs to produce any single item
* economies of scale result from:
** greater efficiency in higher production rates
** greater purchasing power to lower costs of supplies and materials
** lower per capita labor cost per cost of unit produced


=== Benchmark fallacy ===
=== Free markets ===
* a logical or statistical fallacy that measures incompatible data or other comparison point ("benchmark")
* examples:
** using a date of reference (benchmark) in order to hide a statistical trend from its true nature
*** also called "cherry-picking" of dates or data
** commonly used by stock market observers in order to exaggerate or minimize the extent of a stock's rise or fall
** commonly used by politicians to make claims for or against themselves or opponents, such as:
click EXPAND for an example of a benchmark fallacy
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
Example:
{| class="wikitable"
|+ '''Housing Starts 2000-2021 selected years '''
|-
| 2000 || 2006 || 2009 || 2015 || 2021
|-
| 1.65 mm || 2.25mm|| 0.50 mm || 1.2mm || 1.7 mm
|}
* mm = millions
* numbers are approximate
** source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
* benchmark fallacies using this data might include:
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''decline'' in housing starts might select 2005 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a lower rate of housing starts than 2005); conversely,
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''rise'' in housing starts might select 2009 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a higher rate of housing starts than 2009)
</div>


=== confirmation bias ===
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5Gppi-O3a8 Milton Friedman video explaining power of free markets] (YouTube)
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
* Basquiat
** akak
** modest proposal << to do
*** seeing only what you want to see
* Hayek
*** "to a hammer, everything is a nail"
** dispersed knowledge
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
** emergent order/ spontaneous order
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
* Locke
** politicians who take only one side of a political question even against evidence that negates it
* Smith
** historians who are biased toward certain historical outcomes
** invisible hand
* origins of the idea of confirmation bias
** universities
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")


*examples of confirmation bias
=== Gresham's law ===
**The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
* David Hume
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
*** Hume wrote, “Tis not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias


=== Heinlein's Razor ===
* "Bad money drives out good money"
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
** Sir Thomas Gresham (1519–1579), was an English financier in the 16th century
**from wiki: A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."
** he advised Queen Elizabeth to restore confidence in the English currency, which had been "debased" (made impure)
** Gresham argued that the monetary value of coinage should equal the value of its metallic base
*** i.e., $1.00 gold coin should be worth the weight in gold of that coin
* inflation results from "bad" money
* historical instances include:
** Roman empire debasement of silver coins (from 92% purity to  
** Yuan Dynasty issuance of paper money to finance war, resulting in inflation


=== law of averages ===
==== "I Pencil" ====


* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
* a parable in which a pencil describes to the narrator just how magical its creation is
** in other words, the more times something happens, the more likely the results will be the same
* the pencil describes the complex processes and knowledge required for the production of a simple pencil
* the classic example is coin tossing
* see [https://fee.org/resources/i-pencil/ I, Pencil by Leonard E. Read - Foundation for Economic Education (fee.org)]
** the more coin tosses the more likely the result between heads or tails to be 50/50
* related to
** the "law of large numbers" from  Jakob Bernoulli
** "regression to the mean"
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers


=== necessary and sufficient conditions ===
=== Herbert Stein's law ===
* necessary conditions
* "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"
** = without which something is not true
* in economics and history, this concept is important for students to appreciate
*** example: "John is a batchelor" informs us that John is a male, unmarried, and an adult
** cycles
* sufficient conditions
** non-linear paths of events
** = condition is sufficient to prove something is true
** change
** however, sufficiency does not exclude other conclusions
* Herbert Stein's Law may serve as a good discussion point for evaluating choices in history
*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male
** example: why did such-and-such policy fail over time?
** source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Stein
* Stein's law is an expression of "Regression to the Mean" (see entry)


=== normalcy bias ===
=== Jevons paradox ===
 
* also called "Jevon's effect"
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
* law that states that increases in efficiencies lead to more and not less use of a resource
* given absence of change, a normalcy bias is accurate
** also: greater efficiencies lowers cost, which increases demand
** only it's accurate until it's not
* from William Stanley Jevons who in 1865 noticed that more efficiencies in coal-power generation led to more use of coal
* we can see across history when civilizations, peoples, or leaders counted on things "staying the same"
** see [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox Jevons paradox]
** consequences can be
* interesting historical tool
*** catastrophic systemic breakdown without preparation for change
** controversial in the 2000s regarding energy use
**** examples include, Ancient Egypt, Roman Empire, various Chinese dynasties
*** see New Yorker article on subject  Dec/ 2010 >> to confirm
*** lack of social, economic, cultural, and technological advance
 
**** which unto itself becomes a source of breakdown, esp. vis-a-vis competitive societies
=== Lucas critique ===
**** see "stability v. change" above
 
* Univ. of Chicago professor Robert Lucas "critiqued" (criticized) macroeconomic theories or models that describe large-scale systems, especially as drawn from "aggregated data" (accumulated) won't impact individual choices or behaviors, or those individual choices and behaviors won't change
** in other words, macroeconomic models fail to account for micro-economic or individual behaviors
* the utility of the Lucas critique is to point out that policy makes often fail to recognize that individuals make rational decisions that macroeconomic forecasting cannot account for.


=== Occam's Razor ===
=== Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money" ===
* original latin = ''lex parsimoniae''
* late 20th century Economist Milton famously defined the "Four ways to spend money" (paraphrased, not original quotation):
** = the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness
# You spend your money on yourself
* = idea that the simplest explanation is most often the best
# You spend someone else's money on yourself
* = best solution or option is that which assumes the least variables or assumptions
# Someone else spends their money on on you
* origin
# Someone else spends someone else's money on someone else
** William of Ockham (c. 1285–1349) English Franciscan friar and logician
click EXPAND to see the implications of the Four ways to spend money
*** practiced economy in logic
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
*** "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity"
• Table format
* term "Occam's Razor" developed later
{| class="wikitable" style="width: 50%;"
** "razor" = knife to cut away unnecessary assumptions
! Whose money is spent by whom
* Occam's razor for students:
! Money is spent on whom
** to evaluate opposing theories
! Efficiency of Outcome
** to develop own theories
|-
** to evaluate [[Myths & Conspiracies outline]]
| style="width: 30%" | '''You spend your money...'''  || '''on yourself'''
** to develop logical thought
||
*** see also sufficiency in logic
* seek highest value
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012)
* with lowest cost
 
* = maximum efficiency
=== regression to the mean ===
|-
>> to do
|-
| '''You spend someone else's money...''' || '''on yourself'''
||
* seek highest value
* no concern for cost
* = lower efficiency
|-
| '''Someone spends their money...''' || '''on you'''
||
* seek lowest cost
* no concern for quality
* = lower efficiency


=== Sutton's law ===
|-
* from the bank robber Willie Sutton who, when asked why he robbed banks
| '''Someone else spends someone else's money...''' || '''on someone else'''
** he replied, "Because that's where the money is."
||
*** Willie Sutton denied ever having said that, but affirmed that he "probably" would have if someone asked him
* no concern for cost
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* no concern for quality
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
* = lowest efficiency
|-
| ||
|-
|}
</div>


=== Zebra rule ===
=== Opportunity Cost ===
* "When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't expect to see a zebra"
* definition: The value of the next best choice one had when making a decision.
** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
** i.e., the trade-off of a decision.
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
** Opportunity cost is a way of measuring your decisions: if I do this, would having done something else been more or less expensive? What did I give up in my decision?
*
* Frederic Bastiat developed the "Parable of the broken window" to express the concept
 
** known as the "Broken Window Fallacy*" or the "Glazier's Fallacy"
== Logical fallacies and tricks ==
*** (* not to be confused with "Broken Windows Theory")
* begging the question
** from his essay, "''Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas"'' ("What is seen and what is not seen")
* broken leg fallacy
** the parable discusses the "unseen" costs of fixing a broken window
** presents a solution for a problem caused by that or a related solution
*** even though the broken window provides benefit to a "glazier" makes money fixing it
** i.e, break the leg, then offer to fix it
*** the shopkeeper suffers the "unseen" costs of not being to do something else with that money
* confusing credentials for evidence
*** additionally, the opportunities to fix broken windows may create an "unintended consequence" of a "perverse incentive" for glaziers to go about breaking windows in order to make money fixing them
** i.e., "98% of dentists recommend flossing"
click EXPAND for a review of Bastiat's theory of "opportunity cost" and associated concepts of "unintended consequences" and "perverse incentives"
*** does not provide evidence for the benefits of flossing, just that supposed experts say so
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* fallacy of relevance
* ''Parable of the broken window''
* ''ignoratio elenchi'' an argument that misses the point
** a shopkeeper has a careless son breaks a window
* non sequitur
*** his neighbors argue that broken windows keep "glaziers" (window-makers) in business
** " Humpty Dumptying" or "Humpty Dumptyisms":
**** if it costs 6 francs to fix, they argue, the money spent on the window is productive, as it goes to the glaziers
** = an "arbitrary redefinition" like that used by Humpty Dumpty in "Alice in Wonderland"
*** Bastiat replies that, yes, money has thus circulated, but "it takes no account of what is not seen" (''ce qu'on ne voit pas)''
** who tells Alice, "“When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”
**** the shopkeeper can't spend those 6 francs on something else of his choosing
* red herring
**** or, perhaps, he has another need for 6 francs that he can not now fix
* strawman fallacy
**** therefore the accident of the broken window prevents the shopkeeper from using his money more efficiently
** = the target of an argument (the "strawman") has nothing to do with the actual argument
** Bastiat writes, "Society loses the value of things which are uselessly destroyed"
* either-or fallacy
** the parable also develops "the law of unintended consequences"
** incorrectly argues only two options or possibilities
*** ex.: if the glaziers figure out they can pay a boy 1 franc to break windows, and they can still make a profit at 5 francs per window,
* see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies
**** there will thereby exist a "perverse" incentive to break windows
 
***** "perverse incentive" = an incentive that produces a negative outcome
=== Kafka Trap ===
** economists have argued over the "opportunity costs" of damaging events:
* a logical trap whereby the argument uses its own refutation as evidence of a fallacy
*** disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes which require repair and thus create jobs & economic activity)
** i.e., "because you deny it, it must be true"
*** wars (spur economic activity and mobilization)
* the term refers to the dystopian novel by Franz Kafka "The Trial," in which a man's denial of a charge was used as evidence of his guilt
*** however, whatever the benefit it does not account for Bastiat's "unseen" costs and cannot in any way outweigh the suffering, death and loss of choice created by the disaster or war
* the "Kafka trap" was coined by Eric Raymond as "Kafkatrapping" in 2010 article
* see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window#Parable
 
=== Leading questions and question traps ===
* questions that assume an answer ("leading") or are designed to "trap" an answer
** similar to the Kafka trap
* leading questions are used in order to guide
** Socrates engaged in "leading questions" in order to make his point
*** see [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning Socratic questioning (wikipedia)]]
*** and the story of the Slave Boy and the Square from Plato's ''Meno''
 
=== Motte and Bailey Doctrine ===
* or the "Motte and Bailey fallacy"
* a fallacy of exaggeration in which an argument is presented with absurd exaggerations ("the Motte") and if objected to is replaced by an undoubtedly true but hardly controversial statement ("the Bailey", which is then used to advance the original exaggerated claim
click EXPAND for more on Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* the term refers to a protected medieval castle and nearby indefensible village
** the Motte is the defensible, protected tower but is not appealing to live in (built on a mound or "motte")
* the Bailey is an appealing place to live but cannot be defended
* if attacked, the occupants of the retreat to the Motte for safety
* thus the exaggerated and fallacious (untrue) argument appears more reasonable
</div>
* the Motte and Bailey Doctrine frequently employs
** "strawman fallacy"
** ''Humpty Dumptying''
** "either-or" fallacy
** "red herring" fallacy
click EXPAND for an example of a Motte and Bailey fallacy regarding a gun control debate:
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
Person A. "Guns don't kill people, people do" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But that won't stop people from using guns to kill people."
Person A. "Yeah, but guns are legal" (the Motte)
Person A has conflated (confused or joined illogically) the legality of guns with their use.
</pre>
or on the opposite side:  
<pre>
Person A. "Gun control keeps criminals from committing crimes with guns" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But criminals commit crimes and won't obey gun control laws."
Person A. "Either way, it's bad when guns are used to murder people." (the Motte)
</pre>
</div>
</div>
* Examples:
** If you own land on an urban road, and you decide to build condos on it, what else might you have done, and what would that have cost -- or earned -- for you?
* Questions:
** If the U.S. imports oil from Saudi Arabia, is the U.S. giving up the potential of its own oil industry?
** If Saudi Arabia relies on oil, what is the cost of that reliance?
=== Pareto Principle ===
* also known as the "80/20 rule" or "law of the vital few"
* = the idea that 80% of consequences come from 20% of causes
* the early Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923) observed that
** in Italy 80% of the land was owned by 20% of the population
* other observers have found that many natural and human systems follow this distribution pattern<br />


* term coined by [https://philpapers.org/archive/SHATVO-2.pdf Prof. Nicholas Shackel in the paper, The Vacuity of Postmodernist
=== Other useful Economics and "Political Economy/-ics" terms and concepts ===
Methodology]
* 80/20 rule (see the "Pareto Principle" above)
click EXPAND for excerpt from Shackel explaining the Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
* diminishing returns
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* emergent order
<pre>
* Broken window fallacy (also "Glazier's fallacy)
A Troll’s Truism is a mildly ambiguous statement by which an exciting falsehood
** see Frederic Bastiat's ""Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" ("That Which We See and That Which We Do Not See"): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
may trade on a trivial truth ....  
* client politics
 
* churning
Troll’s Truisms are used to insinuate an exciting falsehood, which is a desired doctrine,
** assets churning
yet permit retreat to the trivial truth when pressed by an opponent. In so doing they
*** a form of rent seeking whereby a regulated public utility seeks replacement infrastructure solely for the purpose of generating interest income on the investment, and not for a genuine need for that infrastructure, or, worse, intentionally investing in assets or infrastructure that will require future replacement (see "planned obsolescence")
exhibit a property which makes them the simplest possible case of what I shall call a
** brokerage churning
Motte and Bailey Doctrine (since a doctrine can single belief or an entire body of beliefs.)  
* externalities
A Motte and Bailey castle is a medieval system of defence in which a stone tower on a
* Inflation/ deflation
mound (the Motte) is surrounded by an area of land (the Bailey) which in turn is
* Labor supply / flexibility of labor supply
encompassed by some sort of a barrier such as a ditch. Being dark and dank, the Motte is
* planned obsolescence
not a habitation of choice. The only reason for its existence is the desirability of the
** obsolescence = out of date, no longer useful or appealing
Bailey, which the combination of the Motte and ditch makes relatively easy to retain
** deliberate design for a product or asset to require replacement
despite attack by marauders. When only lightly pressed, the ditch makes small numbers of
** practices may include, automobile or cell phone design to entire consumers to purchase based upon a new "look", fad, or feature that does not make the previous version obsolete
attackers easy to defeat as they struggle across it: when heavily pressed the ditch is not
* public goods
defensible and so neither is the Bailey. Rather one retreats to the insalubrious but
* regulatory capture
defensible, perhaps impregnable, Motte. Eventually the marauders give up, when one is
* rent seeking
well placed to reoccupy desirable land.
** using government rules or law in order to reduce competition
 
** see Frederic Bastiat's "Economic Sophisms" for a satire on candlestick makers who petitioned the government to ban the sun as an unfair competitor'
For my purposes the desirable but only lightly defensible territory of the Motte and
***https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric_Bastiat#Economic_Sophisms_and_the_candlemakers'_petition
Bailey castle, that is to say, the Bailey, represents a philosophical doctrine or position
* regression to the mean (return to the mean)
with similar properties: desirable to its proponent but only lightly defensible. The Motte is
* risk mitigation
the defensible but undesired position to which one retreats when hard pressed.</pre>
* scarcity v. surplus
</div>
* sunk cost / "sunk cost fallacy"
 
* Third-party payer effect
== Ethics ==
** when a third-party pays for goods or services, quality goes down and prices go up
 
** see Milton Friedman's "Four ways to spend money"
=== Aristotle ===
* top-down v. bottom-up
* by Aristotle's view, the study of ethics is essential to understanding the world around us and for finding virtue and happiness
* trickle-down theory
** ''ethikē'' = ethics
** the idea that economic benefits conferred or made available to the top of society will "trickle down" to the rest of society
** ''aretē'' = virtue or excellence
** has been attributed to "Reaganomics"
** ''phronesis'' = practical or ethical wisdom
*** but only by its critics, not its proponents
** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
*** in other words, "trickle down" theory is an economic criticism and not a proposition
* steps to become a virtuous person:
** "trickle down" theory originated in William Jennings Bryan's 1896 "Cross of God Speech"
*# practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
click EXPAND for quotation from Bryan's Cross of Gold speech that expressed "trickle down theory"
*# righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
*# good character leads to ''eudaimonia''
<pre>
* classes (types) of virtue/ non-virtue people
There are two ideas of government. There are those who believe that if you will only legislate to make the well-to-do prosperous, their prosperity will leak through on those below. The Democratic idea, however, has been that if you legislate to make the masses prosperous, their prosperity will find its way up through every class which rests upon them.</pre></div>
*# knows right, does right, does not yield to temptation
* [[Tragedy of the Commons]]
*# knows right, does right, but has to fight temptation
* zero sum transaction
*# knows right, falls to temptation thus does not do right
** both sides of transaction receive equal benefit
*# knows right, deliberately does wrong
*** i.e., the buyer and the seller gain equal value
*## the worst of these deliberately imposes or leads others to do wrong
*** thus the "sum" of the transaction is "zero"


=== ethical or moral dilemma ===
== Logical and observational fallacies & paradoxes ==


* dilemma =
* see Economics section for economics-related fallacies and paradoxes
** a situation that has dichotomous (or contrary) negative outcomes
* see [[Logical fallacy|'''Logical fallacy''']] for list of fallacies especially regarding logic and argumentation
** i.e., "no good choices"
* see below for ethical lies
* ethical dilemma =
** a situation that presents or causes conflicting ethical requirements
*** "requirement" means a required ethical response or choice
*** i.e., if chosen or acted upon, it would be unethical
* conflict of interest
** present ethical challenges
** have degrees of severity
*** such as the ethical requirement to follow a law against, say, trespassing
*** but such trespassing is required in order to save a life


=== lying ===
=== Benchmark fallacy ===
* lying happens all the time
* a logical or statistical fallacy that measures incompatible data or other comparison point ("benchmark")
* we might think of ethical degrees of lies
* examples:
** some lies may be justified, as in acting a character in a play or telling a joke
** using a date of reference (benchmark) in order to hide a statistical trend from its true nature
** other lies have severe consequence
*** also called "cherry-picking" of dates or data
** any lie that deprives another from the truth, possible benefit, or causes harm is unethical
** commonly used by stock market observers in order to exaggerate or minimize the extent of a stock's rise or fall
*** unless that lie avoids an even worse consequence upon either party
** commonly used by politicians to make claims for or against themselves or opponents, such as:
click EXPAND for an example of a benchmark fallacy
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
Example:
{| class="wikitable"
|+ '''Housing Starts 2000-2021 selected years '''
|-
| 2000 || 2006 || 2009 || 2015 || 2021
|-
| 1.65 mm || 2.25mm|| 0.50 mm || 1.2mm || 1.7 mm
|}
* mm = millions
* numbers are approximate
** source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts
* benchmark fallacies using this data might include:
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''decline'' in housing starts might select 2005 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a lower rate of housing starts than 2005); conversely,
** a politician wanting to exaggerate a ''rise'' in housing starts might select 2009 as the benchmark date for 2021 rates (thus 2021 would have a higher rate of housing starts than 2009)
</div>
 
=== Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon / Frequency Illusion/ New Car Syndrome ===


==== types of lies ====
* the phenomenon in which upon buying a new car, one all of a sudden sees other cars of the same model or color that one didn't notice before
* bold-faced lie
* first identified as the "Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon" following an internet message board user who mentioned the name of the German terrorist organization, Baader-Meinhof, realized that he started seeing numerous references to the group, even though he had never noticed it before
** flat-out lie told as if the absolute truth
* the phenomenon was later labeled "frequency illusion," in reference to the tendency to notice things only after noticing it for the first time, which leads to the assumption that the frequency of that thing is greater than it really is
* b.s.
** i.e., it was always there
** a lie that is obvious and exaggeration
** but the person didn't notice until first experiencing or observing it
* broken promise
* thus the "new car syndrome"
** a promise made with no intention of carrying it out
 
* cheating
=== "Cargo Cult" fallacy ===
** cheating is a lot of things, but it is fundamentally a lie
* fallacy of superficially mimicking someone, something, or some activity will result in the same benefits accrued to those who are being copied
* deception
** i.e., by taking sticks and marching in military-lines, that one would have the same power as the real army being mimicked
* defamation
* in science, called "cargo cult science", whereby one researcher copies the results of another without testing it independently
** lies with intent to "defame" or harm a person's reputation
* the term "cargo cult" originated in belief by indigenous Pacific islanders that ritualistic mimicking of Western symbols, constructions or actions would yield the same benefits observed of those westerners
* disinformation
** especially construction of mini-airstrips and models of airplanes that the U.S. military brought to Pacific Islands during WWII would also yield the benefits those things brought to the westerners, such as material goods, health care, etc.
** lies targeted at an audience to shape a belief, usually in politics or politically-tainted news reporting
* the term "cargo cult" was coined by Australian planters in Papua New Guinea
* exaggeration
** anthropologists adopted the coin regarding certain indigenous beliefs across Melanesia (eastern Pacific islands)
** also called "puffery" for trying to be bigger than you really are
 
* false dilemma
=== Confirmation bias ===
** a lie of omission in that it hides options or conditions that exist
* drawing a conclusion not from evidence but from the "bias" one uses to interpret the evidence
** ex. "you either hate me or love me"
** akak
* fake news
*** seeing only what you want to see
** lies in news reporting with intent to hide or cover up something true
*** "to a hammer, everything is a nail"
* fraud
* confirmation bias impacts all areas of human thought, including
** deliberate deceit in order to make or defraud someone of money
** scientists who ignore or deny contrary evidence
* half truth
** politicians who take only one side of a political question even against evidence that negates it
** a lie of omission, in that the intent of the lie is to create a false impression by withholding contrary evidence
** historians who are biased toward certain historical outcomes
* ''little white lies''
* origins of the idea of confirmation bias
** seemingly inconsequential lies that cumulatively create a larger or ongoing deception
** Aesop's fable: Fox and the Grapes, which is where we get the expression, "sour grapes" ("oh well, those grapes are probably sour")
* misleading statements
*David Hume and confirmaton bias
** contains a truth but is designed to deceive
** 18th century Scottish philosopher who argued that knowledge is derived from experience (called "empiricism")
* plagiarism
** however, Hume warned against reason alone as the basis for knowledge, as one can "reason" just about anything
** claiming as one's own what belongs or comes from someone else
*** Hume wrote, “Tis not contrary to reason to prefer the destruction of the whole world to the scratching of my finger.”
* rumors
** Hume warned against jumping to conclusions based on limited knowledge
** also called "fabrication"
*** i.e. drawing conclusions based on our own confirmation bias
* ''slip of the tongue''
* may also be called "motivated reasoning"
** an unintentional lie
** i.e. drawing conclusions ("reasoning") based upon bias or reason for ("motives")
** also called "misspeaking"
* see:
*** misspeaking becomes a lie when it is used intentionally to deceive or harm
** [http://www.devpsy.org/teaching/method/confirmation_bias.html Confirmation Bias & Wason (1960) 2-4-6 Task (devpsy.org)]
** telling something without certainty of its truefullness
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/seeing-what-others-dont/201905/the-curious-case-of-confirmation-bias The Curious Case of Confirmation Bias | Psychology Today]
* story-telling
 
* white lie
==== historical examples of confirmation bias ====
** a lie that produces a positive outcome
*in 1938, British Prime Minister Chamberlain returned from Germany after signing the Munich Agreement, under which Hitler agreed not to many further claims on Czechsolvakian territory (after siezing the Sudetenland), and announced that the agreement would bring "peace for our time."
** see below for lies and situational ethics
**within six months Germany had annexed more of Czechoslavia and would soon after invade Poland.
* sources:
**Chamberlain and his allied nations so wanted Hitler not to be a problem that they accepted anything he proposed thinking that appeasing him would stop his agression.
* [https://www.thehopeline.com/different-kinds-of-lies-you-tell/ Eight Types of Lies that People Tell - TheHopeLine]
*the Salem Witch Trials of 1692 were driven by confirmation bias that considered evidence gave proof of witchcraft, and even otherwise harmless things, like a broken fence, served as proof of it.
* [[wikipedia:Lie|Lie - Wikipedia]]
**Worse, authorities accepted without question ridiculous claims such as that a witch supposedly made cows jump
 
*The New Testament tells of various miracles performed by Jesus, some of which occur on the sabbath, which is the Hebrew "day of rest" (no work is allowed)
**when some of the Jewish leaders, "Pharisees," witness a miracle, instead of responding in awe of it (such as healing a cripple or giving sight to a blind man), they become upset that Jesus performed the miracle on the sabbath
***basically, saying, "Yeah, whatever, you healed a dude, but you can't do that on a Saturday!"
**the bias of the Pharisees was so strong that they ignored the miracle and instead accused Jesus of breaking the law by "working" on the sabbath
=== Correlation is not causation ===
* a cause and effect fallacy that mistakes "correlation" for cause
** i.e., just because two events are related or coincidental does not mean one caused the other
* this fallacy is one of "conflation" as opposed to bad logic, as in the ''Post hoc'' fallacy
 
=== False dilemma fallacy ===
* fallacy of conclusion drawn from limited evidence or a false premise
* the fallacy ignores evidence contrary to the conclusion drawn from it
 
=== Framing effect ===
 
* the 'effect" or phenomenon that people will select an option based upon how it is "framed" in positive or negative terms
* the framing effect occurs when the options are of equal value (are the same), even if presented in oppositive terms
** the difference is in how it is presented or perceived by the decision maker
* examples:
** 33% survive v. 66% die
*** A) given this choice, 33% of people will be saved; versus
*** B) given this choice, 66% of people will die
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because it focuses on lives" saved" versus "people who will die"
**** even though both outcomes are the same (33% saved = 66% die)
** an event has a late registration fee
*** option A) the late registration fee is highlighted on top of the regular cost of registration
*** option B) regular registration is treated as a discount from the total cost of late registration
**** respondents are more likely to select A) because they want to avoid the perceived additional cost
**** even though the early registration for A) is the same as for B)
** an opinion poll asks for support of a policy, with emphasis on either its positive or negative impact
*** A) 100,000 people will get jobs, while only 10,000 unemployed will result
*** B) 10,000 people will lose jobs, while only 100,000 people will find employment
**** respondents prefer A) due to its positive emphasis on jobs gained
**** even though the net jobs gained or lost are the same
 
=== Gambler's fallacy ===


==== lies and situational ethics: life-threatening dilemma ====
* the idea that past performance necessarily indicates future results
** either that since it happened in the past, it will continue
** or, if it happened in the past, it will not happen again
* the fallacy is especially important in random events, such as gambling (cards, dice)
* see Law of Averages and Regression to the Mean


* lying may be ethical if used to
=== Heinlein's Razor ===
** avoid severe harm or save a life
* “Never assume malice when incompetence will do”
*** ex., someone with clear intent to harm a resident knocks on the door, and is told that that person is not home
** similar to Occam's Razor, which posits that the most direct explanation is likely the most accurate
* an ethical lie must avoid a seriously negative outcome
** in that many human endeavors are the result of "incompetence" as much as good or bad intention
** without creating a worse ultimate outcome
** makes for a good test for "conspiracy theories"
* ethical lies do not deprive another person from a legitimate outcome
*from wikipedia:
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you
A similar quotation appears in Robert A. Heinlein's 1941 short story "Logic of Empire" ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity"); this was noticed in 1996 (five years before Bigler identified the Robert J. Hanlon citation) and first referenced in version 4.0.0 of the Jargon File,[3] with speculation that Hanlon's Razor might be a corruption of "Heinlein's Razor". "Heinlein's Razor" has since been defined as variations on Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity, but don't rule out malice.[4] Yet another similar epigram ("Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence") has been widely attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.[5] Another similar quote appears in Goethe's The Sorrows of Young Werther (1774): "...misunderstandings and neglect create more confusion in this world than trickery and malice. At any rate, the last two are certainly much less frequent."


==== Christian thought on lying ===  
=== Law of averages ===
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
** every lie is sinful
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
*** arguing that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option


* = the greater the number of instances, the greater the probability of the average outcome to occur
** in other words, the more times something happens, the more likely the results will be the same
* the classic example is coin tossing
** the more coin tosses the more likely the result between heads or tails to be 50/50
* related to
** the "law of large numbers" from  Jakob Bernoulli
** "regression to the mean"
* see: https://www.britannica.com/science/law-of-large-numbers


==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====
=== Loss aversion ===


* a lie that does not pretend to be a truth
* a psychological disposition to not want to lose out or not have something
** comedic effect
* loss aversion occurs when people give up something of value or that is functional in exchange for something new that isn't needed
** entertainment
** ex. getting the latest cell phone even though your current one is working fine
** fiction
* loss aversion drives decisions by "not wanting to lose out" on something
** paternalistic lie
*** such as telling young children about Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny
** play-acting for conversation or entertainment


==== "Trolley problem" ====
=== Necessary and sufficient conditions ===
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
* necessary conditions
* scenario:
** = without which something is not true
** a runaway (out of control) trolley is heading towards a track with five workers on it (or sometimes presented as five people tied up and who are unable to move)
*** example: "John is a batchelor" informs us that John is a male, unmarried, and an adult
** there is a secondary track that was not in the original pathway of the trolley and that has one person on it
* sufficient conditions
** an engineer who sees the situation can divert the trolley to the secondary track, thus killing the one person on it but saving the five on the original track
** = condition is sufficient to prove something is true
*** the problem is that that one person was otherwise not in danger and not wrongfully on the track
** however, sufficiency does not exclude other conclusions
*** is that sacrifice ethical?
*** example: "John is a bachelor" is sufficient evidence to know that he is a male
* the "utilitarian" view holds that it would be ethical and morally responsible to divert the trolley as it would save more lives
 
** by "utilitarian" we mean a choice or action that benefits the most people, even at the expense of some others
=== No real Scotsman fallacy ===
*** i.e. "maximize utility"
 
* objections to the utilitarian response include:
* also called "No true Scotsman fallacy"
** the engineer had no intention to harm the five but by diverting the trolley would have made a willful decision to kill the one; therefore the act would be morally objectionable
* a logical fallacy of "universal generalization"
*** = deliberately harming anyone for any reason is morally wrong
* the fallacy makes a universal claim, then improperly excludes any counter-examples
*** = violating the "doctrine of double effect," which states that deliberately causing harm, even for a good cause, is wrong
* the "no real Scotsman" fallacy works as such:
* the Trolley problem shows up in other situations:
 
** artificial intelligence, such as driverless vehicles
A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
** Isaac Asimov explored moral and ethical dilemmas regarding artificial intelligence in his collection of essays, "I Robot."
B: "My uncle Angus is Scottish, and he does."
*** Asimov envisioned the '''Three Laws of Robotics'''
A: "Well, no ''real'' Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge"
click EXPAND to read the Three Laws of Robotics
 
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
=== Normalcy bias ===
<pre>
 
First Law
* a bias towards continuation of what is or has normally been
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
* given absence of change, a normalcy bias is accurate
Second Law
** only it's accurate until it's not
A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
* we can see across history when civilizations, peoples, or leaders counted on things "staying the same"
Third Law
** consequences can be
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
*** catastrophic systemic breakdown without preparation for change
</pre></div>
**** examples include, Ancient Egypt, Roman Empire, various Chinese dynasties
*** lack of social, economic, cultural, and technological advance
**** which unto itself becomes a source of breakdown, esp. vis-a-vis competitive societies
**** see "stability v. change" above


==Standards/ Standardization==
=== Occam's Razor ===
=== standard meaning ===
* original latin = ''lex parsimoniae''
* '''standard''' (noun) =
** = the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness
** a baseline rule or line of common agreement
* = idea that the simplest explanation is most often the best
*** i.e., what a society agrees upon as commonly expected
* = best solution or option is that which assumes the least variables or assumptions
** etymology (word origin):
* origin
*** from Old French ''estandard''for  fpr "to stand hard", as in fixed
** William of Ockham (c. 1285–1349) English Franciscan friar and logician
*** derived from Latin ''extendere" for "to extend" and applied to an "upright pole"
*** practiced economy in logic
*** applied to a flag, a "standard" represents an army or people
*** "entities must not be multiplied beyond necessity"
* '''standardize''' (verb)
* term "Occam's Razor" developed later
** means to make in common or in common agreement
** "razor" = knife to cut away unnecessary assumptions
** '''standardization''' (noun) = in the state of being standardized; action of creating common agreement
* Occam's razor for students:
 
** to evaluate opposing theories
=== purpose of standardization ===
** to develop own theories
* standards are a key element of creating rule, sovereignty and/or unity
** to evaluate [[Myths & Conspiracies outline]]
** especially across large distances
** to develop logical thought
** when a people agree upon something, it is "standard"
*** see also sufficiency in logic
* forms of standardization include:0
* note: Occam's Razor has been used by philosophers to deny any explanations that include God or religion (see "Blame it on Calvin & Luther," by Barton Swaim, Wall Street Journal, Jan 14, 2012
** language, laws, money, religion, social customs, weights and measures, writing
 
* effects of standardization include:
=== Post hoc fallacy ===
** economic activity (trade), social and political organization, unity
** rule, power, especially in the sense of enforcing standards
* the below will review these different forms and purposes of standards and standardization


=== law ===
* also "''Post hoc ergo propter hoc"'' fallacy
=== money ===
* “Money can be anything that the parties agree is tradable” (Wikipedia)
notes to do:
* money & trade
** trade =
*** geography
*** movement
*** scarcity/surplus
*** technology
*** technological and cultural diffusion


==== history of money ====
* fallacy that since Y followed X, Y must have been caused by X
* “I understand the history of money. When I get some, it's soon history.”
** just because something happened after something else, doesn't mean the first event caused the second
* money must be:
 
** '''scarce'''
=== Regression to the mean ===
*** too much money reduces its value
 
*** inflation results from oversupply of money
* in statistics, math, etc., that the average of a system is unlikely to change despite extreme observations or events
*** or corruption or devaluation of money
** the reason observations of extremes are not likely to be repeated, thus averages prevail ("the mean")
*** see Latin expression: ''void ab initio''
* in social sciences, indicates that change can't happen forever
**** = fraud from the beginning taints everything the follows
** i.e., exceptional events, persons or places, positive or negative, will likely subside or return to what was previously normal
** '''transportable'''
** and what was before, or similar to it, will prevail
*** ex. Micronesians used a currency of large limestone coins...9-12ft diameter, several tons... put them outside the houses.. great prestige... but they weren’t transportable, so tokens were created to represent them, or parts of them... Tokens = promises
** we see this in terms of cycles: economic, political, social
** '''authentic'''
* in economics, regression to the mean
*** not easily counterfeited (fraudulently copied)
 
** '''trusted'''
* in late 1800s, Francis Galton argued that
*** government sanction
** extreme characteristics of an individual are not passed entirely to offspring
** '''permanent'''
*** so offspring tend to have one or another of either parent's characteristics, but not all of them
*** problem with barter of plants and animals is perishability
** Galton called it "Regression towards mediocrity in hereditary stature"
**** i.e., fruit and goats can be traded, but fruit goes bad and goats die
 
* early non-coinage forms of money:
=== Regression fallacy ===
** sea shells
* errors in observation or prediction that fail to account for regression to the mean
*** which are scarce (rare), authentic, visually attractive (pretty)
* = observations or predictions that include extremes or outliers (beyond the normal range) and ignore the law of regression to the mean that would otherwise indicate that those extremes and outliers are just that and not indicative of the mean (average)
** cattle
** an interesting application of this idea is seen in positive and negative reinforcement
** crops/ herbs/ spices
*** positive reinforcement may incorrectly praise an extreme or outlier, thus subsequent behaviors may fail to replicate what was being praised
*** especially specialty crops, such as spices
*** this dynamic can explain why people may feel great about some outcome yet fail to repeat it subsequently
**** such as pepper, which is dried and therefore transportable and non-perishable
**** they expect that same extreme/outlier without realizing that outcomes will likely "regress to the mean"
** gems, gold, rare minerals
 
*** measured by weight
=== Sunk cost fallacy ===
* modern period money forms:
* "sunk cost" is an economics term for a transaction or financial cost that can no longer be recovered
* during Age of Discovery (15th-17th centuries) rum became currency
** i.e., it is "sunk"
* 18th century Virginia, tobacco became money
* the "sunk cost fallacy" is that because a cost has been incurrent but not recovered, more investment is required to make it back
* in prisons or prisoner of war camps, cigarettes have become currency,
** also known as "throwing good money after bad"
=== history of Coinage===
* the sunk cost fallacy results from an emotional response to a bad situation
* starts with the “touchstone”
** in which it would be irrational to continue to incur additional costs
** = a stone that can be rubbed to measure its purity (trust, value)
* the opposite response to the sunk cost fallacy is "cutting one's losses" and moving on
* in non-financial analysis, especially historical, the sunk cost fallacy occurs when actors "double down" on a bad decision or situation
** doubling down has frequently occurred in politics and warfare
* an example of the Sunk cost fallacy was the "Concorde fallacy"
** the British and French governments decided to keep spending money on the supersonic Concorde airliner despite having already lost huge amounts of money on it
* related to Loss Aversion
 
=== Sutton's law ===
* from the bank robber Willie Sutton who, when asked why he robbed banks
** he replied, "Because that's where the money is."
*** Willie Sutton denied ever having said that, but affirmed that he "probably" would have if someone asked him
* = seek first the most obvious answer first
* used in Medical school to teach students best practices on diagnosis and testing
 
=== Texas sharpshooter fallacy ===
 
* occurs when negative evidence is ignored while positive evidence is over-emphasized
** i.e., conclusions are drawn from convenient data, while ignoring data that is not convenient to the argument
* "Texas sharpshooter" comes from an old joke about a Texan shoots at a barn first, then draws a shooting target over the closest cluster of bullet holes
** thus proving himself to be a "sharpshooter" after the fact, whereas his shooting was hardly accurate
** related to
*** ''Post hoc'' fallacy
*** ''False dilemma'' fallacy
*** ''Correlation is not causation fallacy''


>> to do:
=== Zebra rule ===
Phoenicians: created currency
* "When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don't expect to see a zebra"
Representative Money: paper money = coin value
** similar to Sutton's law that the most obvious answer is likely correct
Fiat money = backed by a promise only
** used by medical schools to teach focus on the most obvious patient conditions/ illness causes
=== weights and measures ===
=== writing ===
> create new page for writing
* power of writing
* from Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs & Steel", p 30:
<pre>Another chain of causation led from food production to writing, possibly the most important single invention of the last few thousand years (Chapter 12). Writing has evolved de novo only a few times in human history, in areas that had been the earliest sites of the rise of food production in their respective regions. All other societies that have become literate did so by the diffusion of writing systems or of the idea of writing from one of those few primary centers. Hence, for the student of world history, the phenomenon of writing is particularly useful for exploring another important constellation of causes: geography's effect on the ease with which ideas and inventions spread.</pre>


and, regarding his analysis of the Spanish conquest of the Inca, p. 81:
=== Kafka Trap ===
<pre>Why weren't the Incas the ones to invent guns and steel swords, to be mounted on animals as fearsome as horses, to bear diseases to which European lacked resistance, to develop oceangoing ships and advanced political organization, and to be able to draw on the experience of thousands of years of written history?</pre>
* a logical trap whereby the argument uses its own refutation as evidence of a fallacy
** i.e., "because you deny it, it must be true"
* the term refers to the dystopian novel by Franz Kafka "The Trial," in which a man's denial of a charge was used as evidence of his guilt
* the "Kafka trap" was coined by Eric Raymond as "Kafkatrapping" in 2010 article


* from "An Inca Account of the Conquest of Peru" by the Incan prince, Titu Cusi (who learned and wrote the book in Spanish), on some of the first Incan encounters with the Spanish:
=== Leading questions and question traps ===
<pre>we have witnessed with our own eyes that they talk to white cloths by themselves and that they call some of us by our names without having been informed by anyone and only by looking into the sheets, which they hold in front of them.
* questions that assume an answer ("leading") or are designed to "trap" an answer
</pre>
** similar to the Kafka trap
* leading questions are used in order to guide
** Socrates engaged in "leading questions" in order to make his point
*** see [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socratic_questioning Socratic questioning (wikipedia)]]
*** and the story of the Slave Boy and the Square from Plato's ''Meno''


==Culture and Cultural & Technological Achievements==
=== Motte and Bailey Doctrine ===
* details
* or the "Motte and Bailey fallacy"
* sources:
* a fallacy of exaggeration in which an argument is presented with absurd exaggerations ("the Motte") and if objected to is replaced by an undoubtedly true but hardly controversial statement ("the Bailey", which is then used to advance the original exaggerated claim
 
click EXPAND for more on Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
==Historical sources & methods==
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* tools and techniques to study history
* the term refers to a protected medieval castle and nearby indefensible village
 
** the Motte is the defensible, protected tower but is not appealing to live in (built on a mound or "motte")
=== types of historical evidence ===
* the Bailey is an appealing place to live but cannot be defended
* archeological evidence:
* if attacked, the occupants of the retreat to the Motte for safety
** remains (bones, fossilized human, animal, insect remains with DNA)
* thus the exaggerated and fallacious (untrue) argument appears more reasonable
** carbon-material for dating
</div>
=== primary source ===
* the Motte and Bailey Doctrine frequently employs
* historical evidence created by the historical actors or at the time
** "strawman fallacy"  
** i.e., contemporaneous = "of the time"
** ''Humpty Dumptying''
* eye-witness testimony
** "either-or" fallacy
** contemporaneous interviews or accounts, such as:
** "red herring" fallacy
*** newspaper reports of eye-witness accounts
click EXPAND for an example of a Motte and Bailey fallacy regarding a gun control debate:
** diaries
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** personal letters
<pre>
*** court testimony
Person A. "Guns don't kill people, people do" (the Bailey)
** oral history
Person B. "But that won't stop people from using guns to kill people."
** interviewing someone about their personal experiences in the past
Person A. "Yeah, but guns are legal" (the Motte)
** may involve selective or inaccurate memory
Person A has conflated (confused or joined illogically) the legality of guns with their use.
* other original documents, including:
</pre>
** official papers
or on the opposite side:
** newspapers
<pre>
Person A. "Gun control keeps criminals from committing crimes with guns" (the Bailey)
Person B. "But criminals commit crimes and won't obey gun control laws."
Person A. "Either way, it's bad when guns are used to murder people." (the Motte)
</pre>
</div>


=== secondary source ===
* term coined by [https://philpapers.org/archive/SHATVO-2.pdf Prof. Nicholas Shackel in the paper, The Vacuity of Postmodernist
* historical evidence created by non-participant observers
Methodology]
** could be contemporaneous or historical
click EXPAND for excerpt from Shackel explaining the Motte and Bailey Doctrine:
*** an "indirect witness" would be someone who lived at the time but did not directly participate in the event
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
A Troll’s Truism is a mildly ambiguous statement by which an exciting falsehood
may trade on a trivial truth ....


Troll’s Truisms are used to insinuate an exciting falsehood, which is a desired doctrine,
yet permit retreat to the trivial truth when pressed by an opponent. In so doing they
exhibit a property which makes them the simplest possible case of what I shall call a
Motte and Bailey Doctrine (since a doctrine can single belief or an entire body of beliefs.)
A Motte and Bailey castle is a medieval system of defence in which a stone tower on a
mound (the Motte) is surrounded by an area of land (the Bailey) which in turn is
encompassed by some sort of a barrier such as a ditch. Being dark and dank, the Motte is
not a habitation of choice. The only reason for its existence is the desirability of the
Bailey, which the combination of the Motte and ditch makes relatively easy to retain
despite attack by marauders. When only lightly pressed, the ditch makes small numbers of
attackers easy to defeat as they struggle across it: when heavily pressed the ditch is not
defensible and so neither is the Bailey. Rather one retreats to the insalubrious but
defensible, perhaps impregnable, Motte. Eventually the marauders give up, when one is
well placed to reoccupy desirable land.


==== techniques to evaluate historical documents ====
For my purposes the desirable but only lightly defensible territory of the Motte and
* '''OPVL'''
Bailey castle, that is to say, the Bailey, represents a philosophical doctrine or position
** '''O'''rigin
with similar properties: desirable to its proponent but only lightly defensible. The Motte is
** '''P'''urpose
the defensible but undesired position to which one retreats when hard pressed.</pre>
** '''V'''alue
</div>
** '''L'''imitation
 
* '''HAPP-y'''
** '''H'''istorical context
** '''A'''udience
** '''P'''urpose
** '''P'''oint of view
*** '''y''' = just to make the acronym "HAPPy" complete


==Historiography==
== Ethics ==
= the study of how history is studied
=== Historiographic schools ===  


=== Bias in study or writing of history ===
=== Aristotle ===
* confirmation bias
* by Aristotle's view, the study of ethics is essential to understanding the world around us and for finding virtue and happiness
** see Confirmation bias
** ''ethikē'' = ethics
* editorial bias
** ''aretē'' = virtue or excellence
* hagiography
**  ''phronesis'' = practical or ethical wisdom
** biography that idealizes the subject
** ''eudaimonia'' = "good state" or happiness
** from Greek for writing about saints
* steps to become a virtuous person:
* political bias
*# practicing righteous actions guided by a teacher leads to righteous habits
* note: application of a particular historiographic techniques does not imply a bias
*# righteous habits leads to good character by which righteous actions are willful
** although it could have bias in the work
*# good character leads to ''eudaimonia''
* see Historiography section
* classes (types) of virtue/ non-virtue people
 
*# knows right, does right, does not yield to temptation
== archeology & other historical evidence ==
*# knows right, does right, but has to fight temptation
>> to do
*# knows right, falls to temptation thus does not do right
*# knows right, deliberately does wrong
*## the worst of these deliberately imposes or leads others to do wrong


=== ethical or moral dilemma ===


== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==
* dilemma =  
** a situation that has dichotomous (or contrary) negative outcomes
** i.e., "no good choices"
* see below for ethical lies
* ethical dilemma =
** a situation that presents or causes conflicting ethical requirements
*** "requirement" means a required ethical response or choice
*** i.e., if chosen or acted upon, it would be unethical
* conflict of interest
** present ethical challenges
** have degrees of severity
*** such as the ethical requirement to follow a law against, say, trespassing
*** but such trespassing is required in order to save a life


=== Confirmation bias ===
=== lying ===
* observer bias limits observations to expected or desired outcomes
* lying happens all the time
* confirmation bias powerfully limits one's ability to see something from a different perspective and, therefore, to evaluate it effectively and accurately
* we might think of ethical degrees of lies
* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
** some lies may be justified, as in acting a character in a play or telling a joke
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see
** other lies have severe consequence
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
** any lie that deprives another from the truth, possible benefit, or causes harm is unethical
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
*** unless that lie avoids an even worse consequence upon either party
* an error in self-awareness whereby a person cannot evaluate his or her own competency
** called "illusory superiority"
** the effect also shows that people of high ability tend to underestimate their own competence
** original study was entitled, "Why People Fail to Recognize Their Own Incompetence"
*** "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."
*** the authors later explained that the Dunning–Kruger effect "suggests that poor performers are not in a position to recognize the shortcomings in their performance"
* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions


=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
==== types of lies ====
* also known as "observer effect"
* bold-faced lie
* when the observer changes the actual event / object being observed
** flat-out lie told as if the absolute truth
** example : typically checking the air pressure of an automobile tire requires letting some air out of it in order to place the pressure gauge on it to measure the air pressure
* b.s.
* the "Hawthorne effect" is named for a study at "Hawthorne Western Electric"
** a lie that is obvious and exaggeration
** conducted at the company electrical plant in Illinois, 1924-1927
* broken promise
** researchers studied the impact of lighting (illumination) on worker productivity
** a promise made with no intention of carrying it out
** however, the increases in worker productivity was not a result of the changes in lighting
* cheating
*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
** cheating is a lot of things, but it is fundamentally a lie
*** which motivated them to work harder
* deception
 
* defamation
=== Illusion of truth paradox ===
** lies with intent to "defame" or harm a person's reputation
 
* disinformation
* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
** lies targeted at an audience to shape a belief, usually in politics or politically-tainted news reporting
 
* exaggeration
=== Mediocrity paradox ===
** also called "puffery" for trying to be bigger than you really are
* = the idea that conformity to inept, incompetent or corrupt systems
* false dilemma
** = leads to individual advancement within those systems without changing or improving that system
** a lie of omission in that it hides options or conditions that exist
*** in fact, mediocre people do not want to change inept systems precisely because they benefit themselves
** ex. "you either hate me or love me"
* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency
* fake news
 
** lies in news reporting with intent to hide or cover up something true
=== Narrative Fallacy ===
* fraud
 
** deliberate deceit in order to make or defraud someone of money
* a logical error of generality from a specific, in this case of a "narrative" or "story" that would seem to explain a certain outcome,
* half truth
* yet, another who experienced that same "narrative" would not experience the same outcome
** a lie of omission, in that the intent of the lie is to create a false impression by withholding contrary evidence
** from Nassim Talib
* ''little white lies''
 
** seemingly inconsequential lies that cumulatively create a larger or ongoing deception
=== Newspaper paradox ===
* misleading statements
 
** contains a truth but is designed to deceive
* following the rule that when you see in the news an event or topic to which you have expertise or experience, the reporting on it will be incorrect, sometimes completely wrong
* plagiarism
* however, we don't often apply that same level of inquiry or tests to news we see about things we do not know well or have experienced
** claiming as one's own what belongs or comes from someone else
** thus the paradox that we accept as true something reported that we know little about, all the while knowing that an expert on or direct witness to that news would know it is inaccurate.
* rumors
* from Michael Bromley
** also called "fabrication"
* ''slip of the tongue''
** an unintentional lie
** also called "misspeaking"
*** misspeaking becomes a lie when it is used intentionally to deceive or harm
** telling something without certainty of its truefullness
* story-telling
* white lie
** a lie that produces a positive outcome
** see below for lies and situational ethics
* sources:
* [https://www.thehopeline.com/different-kinds-of-lies-you-tell/ Eight Types of Lies that People Tell - TheHopeLine]
* [[wikipedia:Lie|Lie - Wikipedia]]


=== Peter principle ===
==== lies and situational ethics: life-threatening dilemma ====
* the idea that people within an organization tend to rise to their "level of competency"
** started as a satirical observation of how companies promote people
*** the observation is largely accurate that people will be promoted to higher levels until they are no longer able to demonstrate competency at some level, and will therefore not be promoted again
* the Peter Principle may help explain why historical actors rise and then become mediocre at their pinnacle


=== Political Framing ===
* lying may be ethical if used to
 
** avoid severe harm or save a life
* a political message, policy, position, perspective or statement that is shaped and ultimately derived from that political point of view
*** ex., someone with clear intent to harm a resident knocks on the door, and is told that that person is not home
* the "frame" is the perspective which shapes the content of the "picture", i.e. the topic, subject, or position
* an ethical lie must avoid a seriously negative outcome
* the goal of the "frame" is to shape audience understanding by through emphasis and deemphasis of various elements of a topic
** without creating a worse ultimate outcome
** i.e., if the topic is health care, the "frame" could be one the emphasizes cost, which deemphasizing quality
* ethical lies do not deprive another person from a legitimate outcome
** the "frame" guides the audience to that "point of view"
** ex. it is not ethical to lie in order to win a game that the other person has just as much right to win as do you
* also called '''"spinning"''', which is to "spin" or redirect a negative into a positive


=== Rorschach test ===
==== Christian thought on lying ====
* Christians consider lying an offence to God
* Christian philosopher Saint Augustine (Augustine of Hippo) held that:
** every lie is sinful
** however, there are degrees of sinfulness in lies, depending on the context, such as inadvertent lies
* Thomas Aquinas and John Calvin also held that lies are always wrong
** argues that every situation presents a correct or "blameless" option
==== lies and situational ethics: entertainment ====


* from the "Rorschach Inkblot Test"
* a lie that does not pretend to be a truth
** a controversial psychological / personality test developed by the Swiss psychoanalyst, Hermann Rorschach in 1921
** comedic effect
** the idea of the test was to assess someone's personality based upon perceptions of "ambiguous designs"
** entertainment
*** i.e., "blots" of ink on a paper
** fiction
*** the test was supposed to indicate a personality type or condition based upon response to the "Inkblot"
** paternalistic lie
* for the Humanities (social sciences & literature), "Rorschach test" is a reference to a bias
*** such as telling young children about Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny
* so a situation or idea can be used as a Rorschach test to indicate a certain line of thinking, outlook, or perspective on something
** play-acting for conversation or entertainment
** i.e., "The current crime wave is a Rorschach test of people's views on policing."
 
* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
==== "Trolley problem" ====
** so one must be careful in its application
* a dilemma created by the need to sacrifice one innocent person to save (usually given as) five others
* scenario:
** a runaway (out of control) trolley is heading towards a track with five workers on it (or sometimes presented as five people tied up and who are unable to move)
** there is a secondary track that was not in the original pathway of the trolley and that has one person on it
** an engineer who sees the situation can divert the trolley to the secondary track, thus killing the one person on it but saving the five on the original track
*** the problem is that that one person was otherwise not in danger and not wrongfully on the track
*** is that sacrifice ethical?
* the "utilitarian" view holds that it would be ethical and morally responsible to divert the trolley as it would save more lives
** by "utilitarian" we mean a choice or action that benefits the most people, even at the expense of some others
*** i.e. "maximize utility"
* objections to the utilitarian response include:
** the engineer had no intention to harm the five but by diverting the trolley would have made a willful decision to kill the one; therefore the act would be morally objectionable
*** = deliberately harming anyone for any reason is morally wrong
*** = violating the "doctrine of double effect," which states that deliberately causing harm, even for a good cause, is wrong
* the Trolley problem shows up in other situations:
** artificial intelligence, such as driverless vehicles
** Isaac Asimov explored moral and ethical dilemmas regarding artificial intelligence in his collection of essays, "I Robot."
*** Asimov envisioned the '''Three Laws of Robotics'''
click EXPAND to read the Three Laws of Robotics
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
<pre>
First Law
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
Second Law
A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
Third Law
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
</pre></div>


=== Other/ todo ===
* alleged certainty fallacy
* attribution to experts fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
=== regression to the mean ===
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
==External Resources==
===Websites===
* [http://www.phschool.com/curriculum_support/ss_skills_tutor/ Prentice-Hall Social Studies Skills Tutor]
* [http://www.trumbull.k12.oh.us/teachers/resources/SSkids.htm Trumbull County Educational Service Center Social Studies Tools] with links organized according to Social Studies areas
* [http://www.readingquest.org/ Reading Quest "Making Sense in Social Studies]


===Articles===


==See Also==
== Cognitive biases, effects & syndromes ==
* bulleted link to other related internal or web articles
 
* bulleted link to other related internal or web articles
=== Celebration Parallax ===


* parallax = different views from different vantage points of the same object
** see Theory of Errors
* conceived by journalist Michael Anton, who defines the celebration parallax as
** "“the same fact pattern is either true and glorious or false and scurrilous depending on who states it.”
*** see [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]
*** Anton coined the term to criticize the disingenuity of 2010s politics and political statements that frequently denied unpopular policies but "celebrated" their imposition regardless of their popularity
* more plainly stated as the phenomenon of when an observer or public speaker denies the existence of something, then goes on to state that, "while it is not happening (or true), it's a good thing that it is"
* see also the "Law of Merited Impossibility"


==Lesson Plans & Teaching Ideas==
=== Confirmation bias ===
* observer bias limits observations to expected or desired outcomes
* confirmation bias powerfully limits one's ability to see something from a different perspective and, therefore, to evaluate it effectively and accurately
* confirmation bias has significant effects in science, as many, even empirical, studies yield results that the investigators are looking for
** note that confirmation bias may also yield great insight, especially if that bias leads to a new or different perspective that others would not see


===Sub Heading===
=== Crab mentality ===
* details
** details
* details
** details
** etc.
* sources:
**


===Sub Heading===
* also called "crabs in a bucket" effect or mentality
* details
* when groups or individuals prefer to deny to others something they do not or cannot have
** details
** out of jeaousy or resentment
* details
* expressed as: "If I can't have it, neither can you"
** details
* see also the "Tall Poppy Syndrome"
** etc.
* sources:  
**


=== Other Student Projects and Investigations ===
=== Dunning–Kruger effect ===
* ideas for student work / engagement with the topic
* the cognitive bias of overestimation of one's own competency and lack of awareness of one's own limited competence
* an error in self-awareness whereby a person cannot evaluate his or her own competency
===Readings for students===
** called "illusory superiority"
* Active Reading
** the effect also shows that people of high ability tend to underestimate their own competence
** apply Prior Knowledge as you read: "what do I already know about this?"
** original study was entitled, "Why People Fail to Recognize Their Own Incompetence"
** identify New Knowledge about what you read: "oh, that!"
*** "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."
** develop questions about the New Knowledge as you read: "Okay, but what about...?"
*** the authors later explained that the Dunning–Kruger effect "suggests that poor performers are not in a position to recognize the shortcomings in their performance"
* the Dunning-Kruger effect is observable but not provable
** i.e., it can happen but just because someone does not have competence does not mean that person will draw hasty, broad and wrong conclusions
 
=== Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) ===
[[File:Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking.jpg|thumb|Elaboration Likelihood Model Information Graphic of Bias and Objective Thinking. Peripheral Route is to the left ("biased") and Central Route to the right ("ojbective")]]


* links and more ideas here
* identifies the association between persuasion and bias
* "elaboration" means the extent to which a person engages in objective mental processing before making a decision or adopting a point of view
* ELM shows that much persuasion is driven by perceptions of status
** i.e. high or low status perceptions drive people's attitudes towards persuasion
* ELM identifies two paths to persuasion or "attitude change":
*# high-elaboration likelihood, called "Central Route" = motivated to engage the argument with critical thought open to evidence
*# low-elaboration likelihood, called "Peripheral Route" = external cues or influences are present that shape reception to the argument without critical thought
* the "Central Route" requires intellectual honesty and engagement
* the "Peripheral Route" engages biases and emotional states and yields little critical thought
** related to confirmation bias and [[logical fallacy]]
* the "Route" taken at any given time is related to a person's self-perceived social status or that of the source of the argument or information (or persuation)
** that is, people process arguments or new information according to their perception of the source of that argument or information
** also called "prestige bias"
* "Motivation" strongly impacts the "Route" taken by the recipient of the information/ persuasion (i.e., decision-maker)
** motivation = conditions, desires, perspectives, or states of mind that influence a decision
** thus motivation may engage biases and thus the "Peripheral Route"
* see
** [[wikipedia:Elaboration_likelihood_model|Elaboration likelihood model - Wikipedia]]
** [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People]
*** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]
** [https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/after-service/202105/do-the-most-educated-people-look-down-everyone-else Do the Most Educated People Look Down on Everyone Else? | Psychology Today]


=== Entropy ===


>> see SocialScience-EssentialSkills11.wpd
* "entropy" is the 2nd Newtonian Law of physics that energy will move from high to low systems
** i.e., a something hot will transfer its heat to something colder
* in Social Sciences, entropy indicates that systems will tend to decline over time\
** related to ''Thucydides Trap'' and ''Stein's Law''


* Comparative Advantage exercise: Tuvulo & Nauru comparison
=== Hawthorne effect / Observation bias ===
** Possible economic choices for Nauru and Tuvalu include:
* also known as "observer effect"
*** phosphates
* when the observer changes the actual event / object being observed
*** oceans/fishing
** example : typically checking the air pressure of an automobile tire requires letting some air out of it in order to place the pressure gauge on it to measure the air pressure
*** tourism,  
* the "Hawthorne effect" is named for a study at "Hawthorne Western Electric"
*** .tv domain registrations (Tuvulu)
** conducted at the company electrical plant in Illinois, 1924-1927
*** technology
** researchers studied the impact of lighting (illumination) on worker productivity
*** foreign aid
** however, the increases in worker productivity was not a result of the changes in lighting
*** banking center
*** but due to the fact that the workers knew they were being observed
*** leaving the island
*** which motivated them to work harder
** Questions:
* Hawthorne effects may change observational data
*** Is it advantageous for Nauru to produce phosphates?
** called "clinical trial effect", in drug or medical testing, some patients may respond to the attention they receive from providers and not necessarily the drug or procedure being measured
*** Is it advantageous for other countries to purchase phosphates from Nauru?
*** "placebo effects" are positive results in control patients (those who do not receive the drug or procedure)
*** it advantageous for Tuvalu to develop an Internet domain name?
**** placebo effects are a "reactivity" phenomenon by which the patient changes attitude, behavior or undergo a subconscious reaction to a situation that changes the patient's outcomes
*** Is it advantageous for other countries to use that domain (.tv)
* related to:
*** What should Nauru have done instead of relying on phosphates?
** "Turing paradox" by which the act of measurement changes the physical properties of what is being measured (applies to subatomic quantum systems)
*** What would Tuvalu be giving up by relying on foreign aid?
** Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure".


=== Illusion of truth paradox ===


==Logic==
* in economics, consumers believe they have myriad choices, when in actuality their consumer choices have little distinction from one another and, worse, are owned by only a few conglomerates (large businesses with many branches)
* todo


>synthesis: Hegelian dialectic:
=== Inventor's paradox ===
# The thesis is an intellectual proposition.
# The antithesis is simply the negation of the thesis.
# The synthesis solves the conflict between the thesis and antithesis by reconciling their common truths, and forming a new proposition.
wiki:
In classical philosophy, dialectic is an exchange of proposition (theses) and counter-propositions (antitheses) resulting in a synthesis of the opposing assertions, or at least a qualitative transformation in the direction of the dialogue. It is one of the three original liberal arts or trivium (the other members are rhetoric and grammar) in Western culture.


== History jokes & jokes from history ==
* from mathematician George Pólya in "[[wikipedia:How_to_Solve_It|How to Solve It]]":
** a phenomenon by which a solution to a particular problem is found by seeking a solution to another, more general problem
*** and that investigation to the general problem yields a solution to the particular problem that was previously unapparent
* the idea is to look beyond the immediate problem to a larger generality, then apply it backwards to the particular
* in mathematics
** to add all the numbers from 1-99 would be difficult to do in one's head
** so, instead of thinking through 1+2=3, +4 = 7, +5 = 12, + 6 = 18
** we can "generalize" to adding numbers that add up to 100, as in
*** 1+99 = 100, 2+98 = 200, 3+97= 100
*** we can then assume that there will be 49 such pairs of numbers, which = 4,900 (49 x 100)
*** these pairs leave the number 50, so we have to add 50: 4,900 + 50 = 4,950
** see [[wikipedia:Inventor's_paradox|Inventor's paradox - Wikipedia]]
* the less mathematically inclined might call it the "Lost Keys Paradox"


* see also [https://school4schools.com/wiki/index.php?title=Geography_fun_facts_%26_oddities#Geography_jokes Geography jokes (s4s wiki)]
=== Law of Merited Impossibility ===


=== Historical jokes ===
* a statement that denies the existence or possibility of something, but then condemns those who oppose it
** used to denigrate those of an opposing position
** i.e., “That will ''never'' happen, and when it does, boy will you deserve it.”
*** see Michael Anton's "Celebration Parallax" above or [https://americanmind.org/salvo/thats-not-happening-and-its-good-that-it-is/ “That’s Not Happening and It’s Good That It Is”]


>> to do jokes from across history
=== Lost keys paradox ===


=== History jokes ===
* the [[lost keys paradox]] is that when looking for where you put the keys, you will only find them when you go looking for something else, such as your glasses, or  your phone
* a possible explanation for the Lost Keys Paradox is that our focus of attention can be limited to a particular goal or activity, which, blinds us to alternative solutions
** thus it is a form of confirmation bias
* when freed of the bias of seeking one particular thing, we are more likely to discover the unexpected solution that we could not see while focused solely on that one thing
* coined by [[User:Bromley|Michael Bromley]]


* Why was the pharaoh so handsome?
=== Mediocrity paradox ===
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
* = the idea that conformity to inept, incompetent or corrupt systems
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** = leads to individual advancement within those systems without changing or improving that system
* '''''Because he took after his dad, not his mummy'''''
*** in fact, mediocre people do not want to change inept systems precisely because they benefit themselves
</div>
* similar to the Peter principle, but explains why people are promoted ''above'' their competency


* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
=== Munchausen syndrome ===
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
* named for the fictional character Baron Munchausen, an absurd adventurer who recounted ridiculous stories, such as riding on a cannonball, with objectivity and detachment
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* = a "factititious disorder" in which a person tells exaggerated or dramatic stories with the intent to impress or deceive
* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
* the Munchausen syndrome is also used to express "circular logic," as in the story of Munchausen saving himself from drowning by pulling himself out of the water by his own hair
</div>
* see entry for [[Baron von Munchausen]]
* in psychology, the "Munchausen Syndrome" is a serious mental health condition in which the patient imagines or feigns illness, injury or other trauma in order to draw attention or garner sympathy
** = similar but not the same as
*** ''hypochondria'', the condition of thinking that one has or hyper-concern about having a disease or medical condition that does not exist
**** thus the joke that, "even hypochondriacs get sick sometimes"
*** ''psychosomatic illness'', an actual illness that has no percievable physical cause or underlying condition
***
=== Narrative Fallacy ===


* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
* a logical error of generality from a specific, in this case of a "narrative" or "story" that would seem to explain a certain outcome,
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
* yet, another who experienced that same "narrative" would not experience the same outcome
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
** from Nassim Talib
* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
 
</div>
=== Newspaper paradox ===
 
* following the rule that when you see in the news an event or topic to which you have expertise or experience, the reporting on it will be incorrect, sometimes completely wrong
* however, we don't often apply that same level of inquiry or tests to news we see about things we do not know well or have experienced
** thus the paradox that we accept as true something reported that we know little about, all the while knowing that an expert on or direct witness to that news would know it is inaccurate.
* from Michael Bromley
 
=== Noble savage fallacy ===
 
* also "Noble savage myth"
* = the false assumption that human nature is good and society is bad
* based on the false premise that pre-civilization, humans lived in harmony and peace
** the noble savage fallacy assumes that any negative outcome following rise of civilization is due to that rise
** = an inverted ''Post hoc fallacy'', which assumes cause from chronology
*** ''Post hoc fallacy'' = if ''x'' came before ''y'', then ''x'' is the cause of ''y''
** this fallacy assumes:
*** ''x'' = pre-civilization
*** ''y'' = post civilization
*** ''z'' = a negative outcome
** and states that
*** if ''z'' exists after ''y'', then ''y'' caused it
*** and since ''z'' did not exist under ''x'', then ''x'' is superior to ''y''
** it is obvious that negative consequences of civilization could not have existed prior to civilization
** but it is a logical fallacy to assume that pre-civilization was problem-free or did not have its own negative outcomes
** it is also a logical fallacy to assume that negative outcomes of civilization negate civilization's positive outcomes
 
=== Peter principle ===
* the idea that people within an organization tend to rise to their "level of competency"
** started as a satirical observation of how companies promote people
*** the observation is largely accurate that people will be promoted to higher levels until they are no longer able to demonstrate competency at some level, and will therefore not be promoted again
* the Peter Principle may help explain why historical actors rise and then become mediocre at their pinnacle


* Why is it called "Mesopotamia"?
=== Political Framing ===
** click EXPAND for the answer:
 
<div class="mw-collapsible mw-collapsed">
* a political message, policy, position, perspective or statement that is shaped and ultimately derived from that political point of view
* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
* the "frame" is the perspective which shapes the content of the "picture", i.e. the topic, subject, or position
</div>
* the goal of the "frame" is to shape audience understanding by through emphasis and deemphasis of various elements of a topic
* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
** i.e., if the topic is health care, the "frame" could be one the emphasizes cost, which deemphasizing quality
** the "frame" guides the audience to that "point of view"
* also called '''"spinning"''', which is to "spin" or redirect a negative into a positive
 
=== Prestige bias / Prestige paradox ===
 
* also called "myside bias" (a form of confirmation bias)
* the idea that perceptions of status drive people's attitudes and decision making
* it is a "paradox" is because people with self-perceived "high status" are less likely to think objectively (without bias)
** because "high status" people are "preoccupied with how others perceive them"
* see [https://www.robkhenderson.com/p/how-dumb-ideas-capture-smart-and Why Dumb Ideas Capture Smart and Successful People] 
** also published here: [https://clips.cato.org/sites/default/files/cato_quillette_Prestige.pdf Persuasion and the Prestige Paradox: Are High Status People More Likely to Lie?]
 
=== Rorschach test ===
 
* from the "Rorschach Inkblot Test"
** a controversial psychological / personality test developed by the Swiss psychoanalyst, Hermann Rorschach in 1921
** the idea of the test was to assess someone's personality based upon perceptions of "ambiguous designs"
*** i.e., "blots" of ink on a paper
*** the test was supposed to indicate a personality type or condition based upon response to the "Inkblot"
* for the Humanities (social sciences & literature), "Rorschach test" is a reference to a bias
* so a situation or idea can be used as a Rorschach test to indicate a certain line of thinking, outlook, or perspective on something
** i.e., "The current crime wave is a Rorschach test of people's views on policing."
* however, as with the original Inblot test, use of a Rorschach test in the humanities is itself biased
** so one must be careful in its application
 
=== Seven is the most selected number ===
* 7 is the number most frequently chosen by people when asked to select a number between 1 and 9
** see [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232582800_Predominance_of_seven_and_the_apparent_spontaneity_of_numerical_choices |  The Predominance of Seven and the Apparent Spontaneity of Numerical Choice]
* 7 is considered lucky or holy in many cultures and religions
** "lucky seven"
** in Vietnam, 7 is an unlucky number
 
=== Smarter than the Average bias ===
 
* the bias of the more than half of people who believe they are smarter than the average person
** see [https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0200103 65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence]
* = a form of confirmation bias
** in which people compare themselves to only their own surroundings
** it is possible for a person to be smarter than most of those around them, yet less smart than the average
** it is equally possible for a person to be less smart then those around them, yet smarter than the average
** this same type of bias is why Americans frequently under- or over-estimate the percentage ethnic breakdown of U.S. demographics
*** they frequently think that their own race is more dominant than it is
*** or that a race that has a larger presence in their lives (surroundings, media, etc.) than it actually has
 
=== Streisand effect ===
 
* a form of "psychological reactance" by which people become interested in something only after they are told they are not allowed to know about it
** = an unintended consequence of censorship
* called the "Streisand" effect because, when the singer/actor Barbara Streisand threatened to sue a photographer for publishing an aerial photo of her house in California.
** the lawsuit generated publicity, and people became interested in seeing Streisand's house because of it
*** when they before the lawsuit had no interest in it at all
* similar to the "Howard Stern effect" , which is the phenomenon of celebrities who attracts an audience from people who hate them more than of those who like them
** named for "shock jock" Howard Stern, a radio personality, who specializes in offensive, rude, or shocking content
 
=== Tall poppy syndrome ===
 
* criticism, scrutiny, resentment and even legal recourse against successful people
* i.e., the "tall poppy" gets cut down because it is higher than the rest
* related to "Law of Jante"
** a social code (tradition, more, informal rule) in Denmark that disapproves of expressions of individuality or personal success
* egalitarian tribal culture also dislikes stand-outs
** some tribes will assault anyone who brags or shows off
** the idea is that an individual who is or acts better than others endangers tribal coherence and is a threat to take over the tribe
* see also "crab mentality"
 
=== Theory of errors ===
 
* also called "observational errors"
* the rule that given an accumulation of even erroneous observations, the mean or average of all observations will generally yield a correct observation
* in statistics, it is called "Propagation of uncertainty", and it is used to
** used famously to identify the correct location of a moon of Saturn by taking the average of a series of incorrect observations, which yielded the precise location of the moon
* theory of errors is similar to "wisdom of the crowd", a phenomenon that affirms that the average opinion or action of a crowd is likely the correct one
** a test of the wisdom of the crowd would be to ask random people the number bubble gum balls in a jar.
*** individuals guesses will be incorrect
*** but the average of all guesses will yield a close or proximate answer
 
=== Other/ todo ===
* alleged certainty fallacy
* attribution to experts fallacy
* unbroken leg fallacy
* wisdom of the crowd
*
 
== Other theories & conceptual tools ==
 
=== Glasl's model of conflict escalation ===
[[File:Glasl's Model of Conflict Escalation.svg|thumb|Glasl's "Nine stages of conflict escalation"|385x385px]]
 
* when analyzing conflict, diplomacy, events, etc. students may employ the conceptual framework of "conflict escalation" by Friedrich Glasl ([[wikipedia:Friedrich_Glasl's_model_of_conflict_escalation|here from wikipedia]])
* Glasl's model divides disagreement or conflict scenarios into "stages" based upon three core outcomes:
** win-win
*** both sides benefit
** win-lose
*** one side benefits, the other loses
** lose-lose
*** conflict w/ bad outcomes for one or both parties
* conflicts escalate through and into:
** tension and dispute
** debate
** communication loss
** coalition building (seeking sympathy or help from others)
** denunciation
** loss of face (pride)
** threats and feelings of threat
** depersonalization (treating the other as not human)
** attack, annihilation, defeat
* deescalation includes:
** mediation from third-party (intercession, intermediation)
** process guidance
** arbitration, legal actions
** forcible intervention, especially from higher power
 
* Glasl's model works at the individual (a family fight) or global level (international affairs)
 
=== Graham's hierarchy of disagreement ===
[[File:Graham's Hierarchy of Disagreement-en.svg|thumb|Graham's hierarchy of disagreement]]
 
* tech entrepreneur Paul Graham in 2008 proposed a model for levels (hierarchies) of disagreement
* the top of the hierarchy is refutation of the "central point"
** i.e., that the opposing idea is fundamentally "refuted"
*** via logic, demonstration, evidence, etc.
* the bottom of the hierarchy is "Name-calling", which leads to no resolution and further anger or dispute
* key points in the negative side of the hierarchy are essentially [[Logical fallacy|logical fallacies]]:
** name-calling (ad hominem) and
** criticism of tone or attitude rather than substance ("responding to tone")
** contractions without evidence
* on the constructive side are
** strong argument via reason, logic, evidence
** refutation: proof
 
=== Overton Window ===
 
* [[File:Overton Window diagram.svg|thumb|An illustration of the Overton window, along with Treviño's degrees of acceptance]]Joseph Overton observed that along the spectrum of social or political thought, policy, or opinion
** there exists a mainstream "middle" of consensus
*** that middle may have variances, but most people generally agree with it
** with extremes on both sides that are not generally accepted
** however, as one extreme or the other becomes acceptable, they enter into the "Overton Window"
** example:
*** in the 1950s, rock music was considered anti-social, thus lay outside of the Overton Window
*** as its popularity grew, especially following Elvis Presley, rock music became popular music
**** and thus, entered the Overton Window
* in the Overton Window, "Policy" should reflect a consensus of points of view within the window, and will move according to changes within that window
** so, while "Policy" may not always reflect the middle of the Window, it acts to reflect changes in the window.
 
=== Weber's "Protestant Work Ethic & the Spirit of Capitalism" ===
 
* Social Scientist Max Weber attributed the economic success of U.S. and northwestern European nations to their dominant "Protestant work ethic"
* based on
** individualism and notions of self-sufficiency
** ethics of hard work, timeliness, frugality, etc.
*** that cumulatively yielded productive economies and a dominant middle class
* note that Weber's seen today by "critical race" theorists as elements of "white privilege"
 
==External Resources==
===Websites===
* [http://www.phschool.com/curriculum_support/ss_skills_tutor/ Prentice-Hall Social Studies Skills Tutor]
* [http://www.trumbull.k12.oh.us/teachers/resources/SSkids.htm Trumbull County Educational Service Center Social Studies Tools] with links organized according to Social Studies areas
* [http://www.readingquest.org/ Reading Quest "Making Sense in Social Studies]
 
===Articles===
 
==See Also==
* bulleted link to other related internal or web articles
* bulleted link to other related internal or web articles
 
 
==Lesson Plans & Teaching Ideas==
 
===Sub Heading===
* details
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* sources:
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===Sub Heading===
* details
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* sources:
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=== Other Student Projects and Investigations ===
* ideas for student work / engagement with the topic
===Readings for students===
* Active Reading
** apply Prior Knowledge as you read: "what do I already know about this?"
** identify New Knowledge about what you read: "oh, that!"
** develop questions about the New Knowledge as you read: "Okay, but what about...?"
 
* links and more ideas here
 
 
>> see SocialScience-EssentialSkills11.wpd
 
* Comparative Advantage exercise: Tuvulo & Nauru comparison
** Possible economic choices for Nauru and Tuvalu include:
*** phosphates
*** oceans/fishing
*** tourism,
*** .tv domain registrations (Tuvulu)
*** technology
*** foreign aid
*** banking center
*** leaving the island
** Questions:
*** Is it advantageous for Nauru to produce phosphates?
*** Is it advantageous for other countries to purchase phosphates from Nauru?
*** it advantageous for Tuvalu to develop an Internet domain name?
*** Is it advantageous for other countries to use that domain (.tv)
*** What should Nauru have done instead of relying on phosphates?
*** What would Tuvalu be giving up by relying on foreign aid?
 
 
==Logic==
* todo
 
>synthesis: Hegelian dialectic:
# The thesis is an intellectual proposition.
# The antithesis is simply the negation of the thesis.
# The synthesis solves the conflict between the thesis and antithesis by reconciling their common truths, and forming a new proposition.
wiki:
In classical philosophy, dialectic is an exchange of proposition (theses) and counter-propositions (antitheses) resulting in a synthesis of the opposing assertions, or at least a qualitative transformation in the direction of the dialogue. It is one of the three original liberal arts or trivium (the other members are rhetoric and grammar) in Western culture.
 
== History jokes & jokes from history ==
 
* see also [https://school4schools.com/wiki/index.php?title=Geography_fun_facts_%26_oddities#Geography_jokes Geography jokes (s4s wiki)]
=== Jokes about historians ===
 
Four historians walk into a bar....
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
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They sit down and order a beer. As he serves, them the bartender asks the first one his name and what he does for a living. "I'm Victor. I'm an historian. I study proto-Natufian semi-nomadic culture." Impressed, the bartender looks at another one. "You a historian, too? What's your name?" The second replies, "My name is Victor. I'm an historian of colonial North America." "Cool," says the bartender, and, looking at the other two, says, "And you two?" "Me, I'm Victor." replies the third. "I'm an expert on the Cold War. And this guy next to me is Victor. He's an historian of medieval feudal agrarian economics."
 
"Amazing!" exclaims the bartender. "History really is written by you guys!"
</div>
 
How many historians does it take to change a lightbulb?
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
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<pre>
There is a great deal of debate on this issue. Up until the mid-20th century, the accepted answer was ‘one’: and this Whiggish narrative underpinned a number of works that celebrated electrification and the march of progress in light-bulb changing. Beginning in the 1960s, however, social historians increasingly rejected the ‘Great Man’ school and produced revisionist narratives that stressed the contributions of research assistants and custodial staff. This new consensus was challenged, in turn, by women’s historians, who criticized the social interpretation for marginalizing women, and who argued that light bulbs are actually changed by department secretaries. Since the 1980s, however, postmodernist scholars have deconstructed what they characterize as a repressive hegemonic discourse of light-bulb changing, with its implicit binary opposition between ‘light’ and ‘darkness,’ and its phallogocentric privileging of the bulb over the socket, which they see as colonialist, sexist, and racist. Finally, a new generation of neo-conservative historians have concluded that the light never needed changing in the first place, and have praised political leaders like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher for bringing back the old bulb. Clearly, much additional research remains to be done.
- from the web
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=== History jokes ===
 
==== Ancient history jokes ====
* What did ancient Mesopotamians wear to work?
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* '''''Their cuneiform'''''
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* Why was the pharaoh so handsome?
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* '''''Because he took after his dad, not his mummy'''''
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* Why is it called "Mesopotamia"?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Because there were so many knights'''''
* '''''Because there weren't just a lot of Potamians, there was a Mesopotamians!'''''
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* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
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==== Europe jokes ====
* "I have two cousins, Alsace and Lorraine."
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* '''''"They never did get along."'''''
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* Why is it called the "Dark Ages"?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Because there were so many knights'''''
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==== Roman jokes ====
 
* A Roman walks into a bar and holds up two fingers and says...
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
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* '''''"Five beers please"'''''
</div>
 
* What cut the Roman Empire in half?
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* '''''A pair of Ceasars'''''
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I don't like how the months don't line up with their number, like September, October, November, December.
** click EXPAND for the punchline:
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* '''''Whoever did that should really be stabbed.'''''
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==== Viking jokes ====
* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
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* '''''By Norse Code'''''
</div>
 
* Did you know that Vikings discovered the formula for the area of a circle?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Area = π × rrrrrrrrr²'''''
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* How did Louis XIV feel after building Versailles?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Baroque'''''
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==== Pilgrim jokes ====
* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?  
* What music did the Pilgrims listen to?  
** click EXPAND for the answer:
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* What cut the Roman Empire in half?
==== World War I & II jokes ====
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''A pair of Ceasars'''''
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* How did Vikings send secret messages? ?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''By Norse Code'''''
</div>
 
* How did Louis XIV feel after building Versailles?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''Baroque'''''
</div>
 
* What does Alexander the Great have in common with Kermit the Frog?
** click EXPAND for the answer:
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* '''''the same middle name, "The"'''''
</div>
 
* Why was WWI so quick?  
* Why was WWI so quick?  
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** click EXPAND for the answer:
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=== Soviet Union jokes ===
=== Soviet Union era jokes ===


* A man in the Soviet Union saved up his money to buy a car. He went to the dealer and ordered the only car available.  
* A man in the Soviet Union saved up his money to buy a car. He went to the dealer and ordered the only car available.  
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